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World Economic Forum: Globalization May Retrogress

2011/1/14 9:43:00 53

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The World Economic Forum, the "WEF", released the global risk report 2011 (hereinafter referred to as the "report") yesterday, predicting and warning the global risk in the next ten years.

WEF defines the background of global risk in 2011 as the twenty-first Century paradox, that is, at the same time of common development, the world is also increasingly fragmented.

The report points out that the core risks directly related to the retrogression of globalization are economic disparities and global governance imbalances.

Because these two risks will not only exacerbate the possibility of exacerbation, and increase the probability of other risks, but also inhibit people's effectiveness in coping with risks.

"Over the past time, countries have remained relatively open to globalization because of globalization," said Kristel Van der Elst, one of the authors of the report and director of WEF global risk group. "However, the interests of globalization have not been equitable distribution, even including water and food."

WEF believes that although the development of new leaders is adjusting the balance of economic power among countries, there is evidence that economic differences within the country are growing.

"This economic difference exists not only between countries, but also in all countries," Elst said. China, India and other countries in the third world camp must pay attention to this risk.

The report shows that economic and equity issues at home and abroad are becoming more and more important.

Economic differences will lead to nationalism, populism and social differentiation within the country.

At the same time, there is a growing divergence of views on how to promote sustainable and inclusive development, which means that global governance will face new challenges.

WEF observed that the failure of the Doha round of negotiations such as the WTO of the World Trade Organization (WTO) and the failure to reach an international consensus on climate change at the conference have shown the imbalance of global governance.

In WEF's view, although G20's effectiveness in global governance has yet to be proved, it is still the most promising international organization to improve global governance.

Therefore, Elst suggests that as a member of G20, it is necessary for China to actively discuss with experts how to solve the problem of global governance, so as to promote effective measures.

Because of the stimulation of core risks to other risks, WEF also hints at three risks that need to be focused.

First, economic risks including macroeconomic imbalances, currency fluctuations, financial crises and asset price collapses.

The second is the networked world, governance failure and the "illegal economy" (the economic difference is the breeding ground for its growth).

Finally, it is the problem of energy shortage which is formed by the contradiction between population growth, economic development and the limited resources of resources.

In addition, during the formation of the 2011 report, respondents also expressed concern about such risks as cyber security and weapons of mass destruction.