Debate On Polyester Filament Before Spring Festival

With the Spring Festival approaching, the textile market in the country is gradually entering the stage of closing and downtime. However, in recent trading days, the polyester filament market has gone against the general trend, and it has deviated from the fundamentals. It has also led to the controversy over the operation of the polyester filament Market before the Spring Festival.

Let's first look at the near future.

First, the upward pressure on upstream cost drives pet prices up.

The recent high oil prices have strengthened the price of ethylene and ethylene derivatives PX, PTA and EG.

On the 13 day, Asia's heterogeneous MX rose to 1023 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, Asian PX rose to 1577 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Korea, Europe PX rose to 1499 U.S. dollars / ton FOB Rotterdam.

The mainstream price of PTA insider market rose to 10450-10500 yuan / ton.

Starting from Wednesday, the price of polyester in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has generally risen. By Friday (January 14th), the FDY quotation of Sheng Zeyi mainstream direct spinning mill continued to rise by 200-500 yuan / ton, 1000 yuan per ton, and POY rose 100 yuan / ton, DTY rose 100-200 yuan / ton, and FDY50D/48F reported 18700 yuan / ton.

Another local melt spinning factory FDY rose 300-500 yuan / ton, half gloss FDY rose 300 yuan / ton, while DTY quotas rose 100-200 yuan / ton, and the existing light FDY50D/36F reported 19500 yuan / ton.

And all the other local factories offer a price increase of 200 yuan / ton, and the existing FDY40D/24F is 18400 yuan / ton. The price of POY in Taicang's mainstream factory has increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the price of FDY has increased by 200-400 yuan / ton.

The price of a mainstream polyester factory in Xiaoshan continued to increase by 200 yuan / ton, now FDY50D/24F reported 17600 yuan / ton, and DTY150D/48F low bombs reported 15200 yuan / ton.

Another mainstream POY factory rose 100 yuan / ton, FDY rose 150 yuan / ton.

Today, the market price of polyester in Tongxiang continues to grow. The main local factory POY and DTY have risen 200 yuan / ton, and the other 100 yuan / ton has been promoted. Now POY150D/48F is reported to be 13800 yuan / ton, and DTY150D/48F is 15300 yuan / ton.

But now the market is still in the off-season, weaving factories are mainly finished by the end of the year, with little production and little demand for raw materials.

It can be seen that polyester manufacturers' consideration of the cost pressure from upstream is obviously more than the consideration of downstream market demand.

Two, upstream

Judging from the recent international oil market situation, the recent closure of the Alaska California oil pipeline due to leakage has raised concerns about the possible disruption of oil supply in some parts of the United States.

Affected by this, crude oil prices have recently been consolidated at a high level of US $90 / barrel.

It is also widely recognized that crude oil is expected to continue to rise in the short term, as the US economy continues to improve and the demand for oil will continue to increase.

The vigorous development of the car market will support the high price of oil for a long time.

The continued high oil price will continue to support the price of ethylene and ethylene derivatives PX, PTA and EG.

Three, polyester factory pressure on the stock is not great, the price will be strong. In 2010, because the entire textile industry trend is better, coupled with the 7, 8, and September limit of electricity production and other factors, so that the stock pressure of polyester factories is generally not high. Now most of the mainstream polyester manufacturers inventory in a week or so, compared with the same period last year, its inventory has at least reduced by 10 days.

Moreover, the efficiency of chemical fiber plant in 2010 is the most profitable year, and the inventory is no pressure on it now.

And now the market is down, no one to buy, others are scrambling to buy.

Therefore, the price increases of polyester factories will be greater now.

Four, the terminal capacity is increasing, and the rigid demand for raw materials is larger.

This year, the textile industry is booming, especially the weaving Market is particularly hot. This has led many manufacturers to seize market opportunities and expand production capacity, and because of its low entry threshold, many small factories will sprout up to the end of the year. The growth rate can be seen clearly. For example, as the largest textile production base in Shengze, according to incomplete statistics, now there are more than one hundred and twenty thousand shuttleless looms, which has increased by nearly 30%-40% in 2010.

The number has exceeded the sum of Korea, Japan and Taiwan.

If it comes to the surrounding towns, it will be much larger.

And looms are always coming out, so we can foresee that the rigid demand will increase.

{page_break}

Prediction: considering the above factors, the main determinant of the price of polyester is still in the hands of polyester manufacturers, and the upstream cost is just the same.

And the trend of buying or selling in the lower reaches will decide that the price of the polyester plant will still be chosen later, but considering that the downstream market and middlemen have already made up their positions in the early stage, there will not be much increase in demand in the short term.

Therefore, I believe that if there is no major unexpected incidents, the market should be the continuation of the current market before the holiday, and the whole market will continue to rise steadily.