Ye Tan: What Is The Basis Of Long-Term Healthy Economic Relations Between China And The United States?

The spectre of protectionism and monetarism is hovering over our heads.

Recently, state president Hu Jintao made a state visit to the United States, and signed 11 intergovernmental cooperation agreements, more than 70 commercial contracts, 45 billion dollars worth of purchase orders, but the order brought

Both sides have a series of problems in terms of values, trade frictions and RMB internationalization.

Obama's strategy of economic governance is to restore fiscal balance and promote employment. The strategy of export doubling has risen to the national policy. The large number of dollars issued has made the United States obtain wealth through financial productivity.

American presence

The United States needs more than regular orders, but to make China a long-term export base for the United States.

The crux of China's insistence on the imbalance between the two countries lies in the fact that the United States has too strict control over China's high-tech exports, and China hopes to import high-tech products it needs.

Chinese Commerce Minister Chen Deming was pparent. In December last year, the US Department of Commerce announced a number of amendments to the export facilitation measures and is seeking public opinion.

This is the first step taken by the US Department of Commerce in response to the export control reform proposed by Obama. This reform has adjusted the control procedures of 164 countries with export destinations, but the list excludes China as the third largest export base in the United States.

Trade protectionism also exists in China. In the process of pformation, SMEs are precarious, calling on the government to give more support, while the US financial institutions' repeated gains in China and the failure of Chinese financial institutions to operate overseas have contributed to China's domestic resentment.

More importantly, mergers and acquisitions in China, especially in the United States, led by large state-owned enterprises led by state-owned enterprises were encircled and encircled. In 2005, CNOOC bid for the US Unocal oil company, but the price was high, but it failed to show that the two sides could not match the economic system, the enterprise structure and the security field, and the two sides could hardly fundamentally trust each other.

China can order Boeing regularly to give the giant panda of the United States for a moment of peace, but it can not get long-term health.

After the financial crisis, the US quantitative easing monetary policy and the accusation against the RMB exchange rate, China's inflationary pressure has formed another sharp contradiction structure.

For China and even the world, the irresponsible dollar is one of the sources of inflation.

In fact, the importation of inflation that China emphasizes is sometimes a euphemism for the spread of the dollar. But after the financial crisis, the effective move of the United States is to pport the us no matter to the world, so as to resolve the debt burden of the United States.

China's domestic economic situation is not as wonderful and stressful as macroeconomic data shows. Business pformation, overinvestment and inflationary pressure make the parties struggling to cope.

But in the eyes of the outside world, macroeconomic data show that China has enough capacity to raise exchange rates, which is the harm that macroeconomic data can not reflect the true cost.

The internationalization of the RMB is an unavoidable focus of Sino US dispute. China can not resist the pressure of rising exchange rate. In the next few years, the renminbi will slowly and firmly appreciate.

After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, all the discussions on money credit, related financial derivatives, capital and money market have become a long-term hot spot.

By 2010, although the real economy is still in a difficult recovery period, the global commodity market, equity investment market, and the real estate market from Hongkong to Beijing and London are emitting an exciting bull market.

In 2010, the international hedge fund giant Soros, who had been defeated in Hongkong during the Asian financial crisis, returned to Hongkong patiently, waiting for the most important emerging market opportunities in China.

This opportunity comes not only from China's expanding economic scale, but also from the internationalization of RMB.

Because the United States dominates the global currency, China's domestic financial model has become increasingly close to the United States in form, which is an important field of cooperation between the two sides and an important bleeding hole in China's domestic wealth.

The efficiency of China's financial enterprises can not be compared with that of the US. The most active and competitive force in China's bond market is foreign capital, especially the US capital.

There are mercantilism and monetarism in the United States, and mercantilism exists in China, and Keynes doctrine, which is increasingly serious about the role of government investment, makes it difficult for the two sides to reach a real compromise and become a negotiator focusing on short-term interests.

Short term orders are not everything. The currency, which controls the global pricing power, is a painkiller, a catalyst, a best mirror to show the greed of human nature. The United States needs to give up arrogance and greed. China needs to give up unrealistic fantasies about the life buoys of state-owned enterprises and make a big gift to make contacts with other countries with wealth and wealth.