2010 Analysis Of Foreign Trade Situation And Outlook For 2011

Since 2010, China's foreign trade has been fully restored, and the absolute volume of imports and exports has exceeded the level before the financial crisis.

(1) the resumption of import and export growth

1. import growth and high stability

From 1 to November 2010, under the influence of many factors at home and abroad, China's imports showed a strong growth trend, and total imports increased significantly, an increase of 40.3% over the same period last year, an increase of 18.2% over the same period in 2008, faster than the growth rate of exports by 7.3 percentage points.

However, with the slowdown in domestic economic growth, the growth rate of domestic industrial production and fixed asset investment is coming back month by month, and the growth rate of imports has shown a high trend of decline.

2. export growth has recovered better.

From 1 to November 2010, China's exports rebounded rapidly, up 33% from the same period last year, an increase of 8% over the same period in 2008, of which 153 billion 330 million US dollars were exported in November, and the monthly export value reached a record high.

It can be seen that the export situation of our country is already better than that before the financial crisis.

It is noteworthy that, with the demand for foreign companies' inventory refunding 'weakened, overseas market demand contracted and the base period increased in the same period, the monthly export growth rate continued to decline for 5 consecutive months from June, and has dropped to 22.9% in October.

(two) effective implementation of foreign trade diversification strategy

After the financial crisis, China paid more attention to the implementation of trade diversification strategy. On the one hand, it increased trade with emerging market countries and regions, significantly accelerated exports to ASEAN, Russia and other countries. On the other hand, it increased imports from other countries, supported the economic growth of the countries concerned, and made contributions to the world economic recovery.

1. increase in imports from major trading partners such as the European Union and the United States

China's imports from major economies such as the US, Japan and Europe have expanded further.

According to statistics from countries and regions concerned, the EU's export to China increased from 41.3% to 1 in 2010, which was 16.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of imports from China. In 2010 1 August, the US export to China increased by 35.6%, which was 11.6 percentage points higher than the growth rate of imports from China in the period of 1 to August.

From the data, we can see that in the process of seeking various measures to get rid of the financial crisis in various countries, China's strong import growth has increased the external demand of these countries and regions, alleviating the economic difficulties of these countries to a certain extent, and helping the world economy out of the shadow of the crisis.

2. export growth of emerging economies

Since the beginning of this year, China's export growth in emerging markets has accelerated and the export market has continued to diversify.

From 1 to November 2010, China's exports to ASEAN, India, Russia and Brazil increased by 33.6%, 39.9%, 72.7% and 78.1% respectively.

As exports to emerging markets increased faster than traditional markets, the proportion of emerging market exports increased, and the diversified market structure was further established.

(three) the structure of import and export products can be optimized.

1. increase of imports of primary products

In the first half of 2010, the number of new domestic projects grew faster, the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the whole society was at a high level, the growth of industrial added value was strong, and the international commodity prices had been rising in the first half of the year, leading to the increase of primary products such as resource products and agricultural products (000061).

2. high energy products export growth rate down

In the first half of 2010, due to the strong demand at home and abroad, electricity, iron and steel, nonferrous metals, building materials, petrochemical industries and other high energy industries accelerated their rebound, and the export of high energy products increased too fast, which brought unprecedented pressure to the realization of energy saving and emission reduction targets in China.

In order to adjust the structure of export products and curb the export of high energy products, the state has abolished the export tax rebates of 406 kinds of high energy products since July 15th, and played a fine role in improving the export structure.

In September, the exports of the 406 "two high" products decreased by 12.9%, and the export scale decreased by 60.4% compared with June.

(four) trade surplus decreases.

China's current economic growth rate ranks among the leading economies in the world. Domestic demand recovery is better than external demand, and the balance of trade continues to improve.

In terms of trade, the surplus is mainly from processing trade, and the trade deficit under general trade is 37 billion 830 million US dollars.

From the nature of enterprises, foreign investment enterprises are the main source of trade surplus.

From the data, most of the gains from processing trade are obtained by foreign companies, and their surplus does not show China's huge benefits in terms of exports.

Two, 2011 forecast of foreign trade situation

(1) analysis of influencing factors

1. international factors: the uncertainty of world economic growth is increasing, and the external environment facing foreign trade is complex.

(1) signs of slowing growth in the world economy.

Last year, economic growth in major economies such as the United States and Japan showed signs of deceleration. In the two quarter of 2010, the US GDP annulus rate was only 1.7%, and the three quarter was 2%, which was 2 and 1.7 percentage points slower than the first quarter. Japan's seasonally adjusted two quarter growth was only 0.4%, three quarter 0.9%, slower than the first quarter, 1.2 and 1.2 percentage points respectively.

This is also true of emerging economies.

Data show that since the second half of 2010, the effect of the last round of economic stimulus policies jointly issued by various countries has weakened, and the world economy has entered the "slow growth period" from the "policy pick-up period". It is estimated that the first half of 2011 will be in the overlapping stage of the short, medium and long economic cycles, and the world GDP rate will be reduced.

(2) the fluctuation of international commodity prices has increased.

As the economic growth of the developed economies slows, the growth of emerging economies will be slowed down by overseas trade, and the actual demand for international commodities will weaken at the next stage.

In order to prevent the two dip in the economy, monetary authorities in some countries have launched the second round of quantitative easing policy, which will further ease global liquidity, which will increase the price volatility of the global commodity market.

In addition, developed economies and developing economies are now using their currencies and exchange rate policies to combat competitors for their respective interests. The international monetary market is filled with smoke. Currency wars are at stake. The exchange rate of major international currencies will increase, and international commodity prices will also be significantly affected, which is not conducive to stable operation of China's foreign trade.

(3) the adverse effects of international trade protection and exchange rate pressure deepened.

Under the impact of the financial crisis, the competition in the international market is more intense, and the trend of trade protectionism is deepened. Some developed countries, represented by the United States, carry out trade investigation and trade sanctions against China in a wide range of fields, and even put forward trade surveys in China in the field of emerging industries for clean energy products.

Moreover, because of the needs of domestic politics, the United States, the European Union and Japan have recently put pressure on China's exchange rate to make China a "currency manipulator", forcing the renminbi to appreciate significantly, which will have a very negative impact on the future export.

2. domestic factors: China's economy will maintain steady growth, and the impact of rising factor prices can not be ignored.

(1) economic growth will show a trend of low before and after high.

In the first half of 2011, China's economy will slow down in the base effect and the economic cycle. In the second half of 2011, the growth rate of the economy will gradually recover from the stabilization of the world economy and the base of the same period.

(2) the implementation of structural adjustment strategy has been intensified.

2011 is the opening year of China's "12th Five-Year" plan. The 12th Five-Year plan clearly suggests that accelerating the pformation of the mode of economic development must run through the whole process and various fields of economic and social development, and adhere to the strategic adjustment of economic structure as the main direction of changing the mode of economic development.

Under the guidance of this guideline, the demand structure adjustment will pay more attention to domestic demand, especially consumption demand. In terms of industrial structure adjustment, the development plan of seven strategic emerging industries, such as energy conservation, environmental protection and biology, has been fully started.

Against this background, the proportion of China's exports to GDP and the structure of export products will also be adjusted accordingly.

(3) the RMB exchange rate gradually appreciated.

Since 2010, the United States and other western countries continue to make a big deal on the issue of RMB exchange rate and implement high pressure.

Since the reopening of foreign exchange reform in June 19, 2010, the RMB has appreciated by about 3%, and some export enterprises have already felt the pressure from the appreciation of the renminbi.

It is estimated that the exchange rate will continue to show an upward trend in the next stage.

The appreciation of RMB will affect the competitiveness of China's export products, and will also affect the operating income of foreign-funded enterprises, which is not conducive to the steady growth of foreign trade.

(4) the production cost is further improved.

From the perspective of labor factor cost, in 2011, with the continuous advance of the reform of national income distribution, the pattern of income distribution will continue to adjust to the direction of residents and workers.

From the perspective of the cost of resources and energy elements, the "12th Five-Year plan" proposal put forward to deepen the reform of resource type products prices and factor markets.

It is estimated that the pace of reform of resources and energy prices will accelerate in 2011, and the cost of resources and environment faced by export enterprises will increase.

From the perspective of the cost of capital elements, the central bank has started the interest rate raising process, raising the benchmark interest rate for RMB loans and loans for the two time, and at the same time, the RMB exchange rate has increased rapidly, and the cost of capital is rising into a rising channel.

The increase in cost of production represented by resources, labor and capital will reduce the export profits of enterprises.

(two) forecast of future foreign trade situation

1. total forecast

In 2011, considering the world economic growth situation, the demand changes of major economies, domestic industrial production growth and investment and consumption trends, exchange rate fluctuations and domestic and foreign price changes, and the same period cardinal effect and other factors, it is initially estimated that foreign trade exports will grow by about 16%, and imports will grow by about 20%, with a surplus of about 170 billion dollars, a slight decrease compared with 2010.

2. structure prediction

Export: from the perspective of product mix, the structure of China's export products will be further optimized in the context of vigorously adjusting the industrial structure, stepping up the elimination of backward production capacity and encouraging the development of strategic emerging industries.

In the main export products, the export of electromechanical products and high technology products continued to maintain growth momentum, but its growth rate may be slowed down due to the end of the world's "industrial inventory compensation period". The export growth rate of rare metal products, such as resource products, energy products and high energy products, will be significantly reduced under the influence of the domestic "structural adjustment" policy.

From the perspective of national structure, China's exports to the US, Japan and Europe will continue to decline slightly from the current level to about 35%, thanks to the slowdown in economic growth, low demand and frequent trade protectionism. The trade between China and ASEAN will continue to deepen, and the proportion of ASEAN exports will also continue to rise.

Import: since 2010, agricultural natural disasters have been frequent. Food production in some parts of China has been affected, and prices of some agricultural products have risen sharply.

In the world, Russia and other major grain exporting countries have suffered sharp decline in exports due to disasters, and the prices of major agricultural products such as cotton have surged. Due to strategic safety and optimization of the structure of imported products, China will appropriately expand the scale of grain imports and increase the import proportion of agricultural products and foodstuffs.

As China's industrial and investment growth will slow down in 2011, the production of high energy consuming industries will be suppressed. Correspondingly, the demand for resource-based products, such as ores, will be reduced, and the growth rate of imports will drop to a certain extent, and the proportion will decline.