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Domestic Cotton Picking Basically Ended &Nbsp; Total Production Is Expected To Be 6 Million 650 Thousand Tons.

2011/1/27 10:44:00 38

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Cotton ICE Cotton Period

Summary of the report:

1, ICE cotton futures were lower in January 25th, and speculative buying took place in March.

2, as of January 25th, ICE can deliver 2 cotton contracts with 126940 bags.

Trading day

It's 125520 bales.

3. China Cotton Association data survey shows that the whole country in December

Cotton picking

Basically, the output has not been adjusted. It is estimated that the total output of the country will be 6 million 650 thousand tons, compared with that of the previous year, a decrease of 2.1% over the previous year.

By the end of December, the national average sales progress rate of 80% (the proportion of sales volume to total output) was 11.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year, of which the sale in Xinjiang has basically been completed, and the Yangtze River Basin is over 80%, and the the Yellow River Basin is only over half.

Market summary:

International:

According to New York's January 25th news, ICE cotton futures closed down on Tuesday. Speculative buying once pushed spot contracts to a new high, but then prices fell and forward contracts fell, due to lack of support and market concerns that China's demand will slow down.

Cotton futures have risen nearly 20% since the mid January, boosted by strong cotton prices in major consumer countries and tight deliveries in the US.

ICE cotton futures contract fell 0.11 cents in March, closing at $1.6183 a pound, hitting a new high of 1.6789 dollars per pound.

The total turnover is two times the average of 30 days, reaching 38000 hands.

Domestic stock:

Goods in stock

Quotations also increased significantly, but the turnover is still light, on the one hand, the beginning of active cotton sales began to slow down, wait-and-see psychology increased; on the other hand, textile mills began to leave, only a small number of textile mills are still purchasing; three, the rise in spot prices, textile enterprises procurement has also become cautious, the uncertainty of the market outlook increased market outlook.

Today, China's cotton price refers to (CCIndex328) 28205 yuan / ton, up 78 yuan, 527 cotton to plant average price 25997 yuan / ton, up 36 yuan.

Domestic futures:

On Monday, January 25th, the new year of the New York (New York) recollection and fluctuation, the impact of today's CF1109 contract high open, the early plate under the pressure of multi - head under the pressure, and then multi - head price rebound, repeated shock in the pan, the center of gravity in the afternoon slightly upward movement, the formation of the daily line, the volume of daily turnover, increase.

CF1109 contracts concluded 265900 hands on the day, 9554 additional positions at the end of the day, 265900 hands at the end of the contract; 77426 contracts on the CF1111 contract day, 7282 on the day, 51986 at the end.

Operation suggestion:

Recently, domestic spot prices have rebounded rapidly, a large number of post harvest orders of low count cotton yarn have appeared. The price of polyester staple fiber continues to rise, and the enthusiasm for downstream textile consumption has not diminished. In recent days, we need to worry about slowing down demand after the festival, and Zheng cotton has adjusted the day.

The medium and long term upward trend remains unchanged, but the possibility of a new high before the holiday is reduced.

Operation strategy:

The midline trend is rising and rising in the short term; the top 31600 is too much, the upper pressure is 32100, the bottom 31100 is empty and the bottom is 30800.

Hedging strategy: {page_break}

Considering pportation, spot futures margin interest costs, warehousing costs and other expenses, it is suggested that the lint sales enterprises, as appropriate, carry out the selling period hedging in the 31000-32000 interval, lock the spot sales profits of 3000-4000 yuan / ton, and avoid the risk of falling prices.

In view of the current high grade cotton, especially Xinjiang cotton, the paction price has reached 30000 yuan / ton, it is recommended that textile enterprises can buy and maintain value below 30000 yuan.

The spot purchase cost is below 30000 yuan / ton.