Speculation &Nbsp; Cotton Prices Rise Before Accidents.

There is only one week left before the Spring Festival.

On the 24 day, the cotton futures price of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) closed at the highest level in nearly 150 years. Affected by this, Zheng cotton kept strong in the domestic market for many days, although the pressure retracement on the 25 day, Zheng cotton 1109 contract still closed at 31675 yuan, and then broke 30 thousand yuan mark.

On the spot market, China's cotton price index (328) was 28205 yuan / ton, up 417 yuan / ton compared with the previous week's average price.

According to past experience, the price of bulk commodities such as cotton will fall to the bottom of the valley due to the Spring Festival approaching. But this year, the price of the commodities has gone unsteadily. What's wrong with the market?

Dong Shuangwei, a senior analyst with futures agricultural products, told reporters that it was obvious that the rise of cotton futures in the domestic market was caused by international market implicating, but at the present stage, the spot supply of cotton in the domestic market is still abundant.

According to the US Department of agriculture's latest report, as of January, the United States is available.

"Mei cotton has sold almost all its stock at the end of July.

But the domestic situation is quite different.

Dong Shuangwei further analyzed that although the market generally expected that China had a larger cotton gap, it was at least 5 and June. So far, there has been no problem with domestic cotton supply.

"Now, cotton production in Xinjiang is very fast and is in the peak season of supply.

In terms of imported cotton, the volume of port arrivals in December last year was 460 thousand tons, which is quite high. It is estimated that the monthly import volume in January ~3 will remain above 300 thousand tons per month.

If there is no support from the stock market, the rise of this round of futures is likely to be a "hype" factor.

"

Dong Shuangwei said, according to his understanding, although many middlemen reported the cotton price very high, but because the textile enterprise replenishment stock has been phased out, the actual turnover is very small. Judging from this judgment, the rally is obviously out of date.

Vice president of Jiangsu SOHO economic and Trade Co., Ltd. Wang Dan Wen also said that this year's raw material market is particularly abnormal. "In the past year, on the eve of the Spring Festival, raw material prices should basically drop to the bottom, and then slowly increase after the holidays, but this year the festival began to rise.

When cotton prices rise, other textile materials such as silk and chemical fiber will also go up.

"

Due to anticipating that the cotton market is bound to usher in a new bull market after the Spring Festival, Wang Danwen told reporters that once the Spring Festival is over, the company will start to prepare the stock immediately.

Dong Shuangwei pointed out that it is precisely because of the "pre inflation" mentality prevailing in the market that many suppliers began gambling in the past few years.

As for what kind of craziness will happen in the cotton market after the Spring Festival, he thinks that the government should make reasonable control and guidance at that time.

Hu Min, director of the clothing department of the China Textiles Import and export chamber, also reminded export companies that the inflation pressure was still high in the first half of the year, and that export enterprises should be psychologically prepared.