Resource Shortage And Cotton Price Rise Again

In recent trading days, domestic and foreign spot cotton prices once again showed a sharp upward trend.

Among them, the US cotton continued trading on several consecutive trading days. In January 24th, the March contract also set a record high of 161.94 cents / pound in the past 150 years.

Zheng cotton main contract price 1109 and 21 days and 24 days also appeared a big increase, but 25 days after a short rush after the decline.

On the 24 day, the price of cotton imports from China's main ports continued to soar. Most varieties rose 3 - 4 cents / pound, and cotton in Central Asia rose 1.5 cents / pound.

On the same day, the US C/A cotton quotation was 188.30 cents / pound, equivalent to the general port of RMB.

Shandong, Hebei and Hubei are the main cotton producing areas in China. In recent years, the reduction of cotton planting area in these areas is very large. The main reason is that cotton cultivation is time-consuming, laborious and time-consuming, and its planting efficiency is relatively low, and labor shortage is lacking.

Ma Junkai, a cotton expert in Dezhou Cotton Association of Shandong, has long suggested increasing cotton subsidies, strengthening cotton market management and stabilizing cotton production.

According to him, in recent years, the growing area of the important cotton producing areas in Shandong has been falling more and more. Cotton production is getting smaller and smaller. From 2007 to 2010, cotton planting areas in Shandong and Dezhou were 14 million 100 thousand mu, 2 million 700 thousand mu, 13 million 300 thousand mu, 2 million 900 thousand mu, 13 million mu, 2 million 300 thousand mu, 11 million 500 thousand mu and 1 million 550 thousand mu, respectively.

Lint output in Shandong and Dezhou last year was only 750 thousand tons and 120 thousand tons respectively.

For a long time, the domestic cotton market has been short of production. The main supply sources of the market are Xinjiang cotton and imported cotton.

At present, affected by snowfall, spring pportation and road maintenance in the southern part of Xinjiang, the Sinop cotton pportation basically stopped, resulting in a tight supply in the mainland.

Internationally, the main cotton producing countries are suffering from natural disasters. The main export countries such as the United States are limited in cotton resources, and cotton prices continue to rise, leading to the increasing cost of imported cotton in China, which has boosted confidence in the domestic cotton market.

In addition, import traders, middle distributors, cotton growers, and exchange rate movements also increased the volatility of cotton prices.

"In the past two months, we haven't shipped a ton of cotton from Xinjiang. The railway pportation is too intense."

He Hua, manager of Henan TongZhou Cotton Industry Co., Ltd. believes that the shortage of Xinjiang cotton has aggravated the rise in cotton prices.

Last December, importers kept a wait-and-see attitude due to their inaccuracy in the market, limiting the number of orders placed in the international cotton market. It is estimated that the number of imported cotton to Hong Kong in 1 to February is relatively small.

At present, natural disasters such as floods and droughts continue to occur in Brazil, Australia and the United States. Prices in India also increase considerably, and the uncertainty in the international cotton market is very uncertain.

US cotton may have started the rally ahead of schedule, while the US cotton contract in March was mostly sold in the US cotton spot market.

In addition, in the middle and last 11 months of last year, the price of Zheng cotton fell from 33600 yuan / ton to 24200 yuan / ton. Many cotton ginning mills stopped the purchase of seed cotton, resulting in lower inventory of the cotton mill.

Although the downstream industry of the cotton industry has completed the preparation work before the Spring Festival, the purchase and sale of the market tend to be light, but it has obviously accepted the high cotton price.

According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of customs, China imported 1 million 110 thousand and 200 tons of cotton yarn last year, an increase of 7.84% over the same period last year, and a total of 517 thousand tons of cotton yarn exported, representing a decrease of 2.39% over the same period last year.

From the growth of cotton yarn imports and domestic yarn sales, the downstream is gradually digesting high cotton prices.

The number of cotton imports in China increased more than doubled in December last year to 460 thousand tons, an increase of more than two times that of the 120 thousand tons in November. Last year, China imported 2 million 840 thousand tons of cotton, an increase of 86% over the same period last year.

At present, some state-owned enterprises and large trading companies are increasing the purchase of cotton in the international market, of which the purchase amount of the US cotton in the new year is large, which will undoubtedly increase the price of cotton.

The price of Zheng cotton has reached a high point since November 10th last year, and then entered the adjustment. In November 26th, it hit bottom and picked up. Recently, the price has risen to more than 30 thousand yuan per ton, but the turnover has decreased by 65% and the number of positions has also dropped.

On the 25 day, the price of Zhengzhou cotton broke away from the US market and opened up and went down. In recent months, the contract price was still 3200 yuan / ton from the previous high point, or much less than the US market.

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In the face of high cotton prices, the state has continuously organized the national cotton store to enter the market and increase the market supply. On the other hand, various measures have been taken to increase the number of Sinop cotton pportation and to a certain extent alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand in cotton market.

At the same time, China's cotton import link is smooth, and the number of cotton imports is increasing, which will effectively make up for the gap of domestic cotton.

Market regulators have strengthened supervision, effectively curbed excessive pactions and prevented blind speculation.