2011 Red Year: Zheng Cotton Ignites The Enthusiasm Of Commodities.

Cotton futures become popular

In the domestic commodity futures market in January 24th, cotton continued to triumph over the 30 thousand yuan mark and led related varieties PTA to close.

China

Frantic cotton is the stimulant factor of PTA trading, and the promotion of raw material PX is a strong support from the supply and demand side.

Wu Yue, a financial analyst at Shihua, pointed out that the new increase in PX production and the overhaul of the device resulted in a sharp rise in the price of PX in early 2011. There was a rare phenomenon of PX and PTA earnings over 1000 yuan / ton.

As of January 21st, Asian PX closed at $1633 / ton FOB Korea, PX price has been close to 2008 high of 1685 U.S. dollars / ton, according to the current PX price, the PTA theory production cost of 9600 yuan / ton.

At present, the market is concerned about the pattern change of the PTA industry chain in the first half of 2011. In the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first half of this year, China's polyester production capacity is expected to be put into operation at about 3 million 450 thousand tons. According to the production of 1 tons of polyester, it needs to consume 0.865 tons of PTA. This part of the capacity increase needs to consume nearly 3 million tons of PTA, while the total amount of PTA in the same period is only 1 million 500 thousand tons.

The market has doubts about the supply of PTA.

The 2010 type of craziness is hard to repeat.

Looking back to the past 2010, domestic commodity prices rose all the way, among which the trend of agricultural products was more eye-catching. The prices of staple food, such as cotton and sugar, represented by soft commodities such as cotton and sugar, were all higher than before.

Wu Yue believes that this year's domestic commodity market will face more complicated situation. The domestic balanced grain supply and strong policy regulation intention add greater uncertainty to the market.

However, under the influence of many factors, such as strong domestic demand, rising prices of international agricultural products, extreme weather and strong inflation expectations, the long-term bull market pattern of agricultural products is expected to continue in the new year.

Liu Xintian, editor in chief of the "business community", an industry information institution, believes that the commodity market in 2010 has entered a new round of business cycles.

The impact of the crisis has gradually subsided, the external environment of the commodity market has become clearer than that in 2008 and 2009, and the environment of the visible future market is stable. Secondly, the market's "warming up" for nearly 18 months can never be simply interpreted as a "rebound" or "callback". It should be the front-end and rising stage of the new cycle. Thirdly, whether it is raw material cotton, mineral, or downstream stainless steel, chemical products, etc., the market performance in the second half of 2009 and 2010 has great commonalities. The whole industrial chain is rising, and the whole plate of energy, chemical, rubber, plastic, iron and steel and precious metals is strong, indicating that the whole commodity market is moving. There are three reasons: first, the global economy.

The cycle of commodities will generally go through three stages: rising, sorting, and callback.

Liu Xintian believes that the current commodity market is in the middle stage of pition.

In 2011, there was still a reason and momentum for the rise of commodity markets, but most of them were in the "highest historical" range.

In the recovery period of the industrial economy and the purchasing power of the market, commodity inflation is hard to get customers to take orders, and it is more like a capital game.

Therefore, in 2011, it was difficult for the commodities to carry out the 2010 type of craziness.