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Several Factors Affecting The Cotton Market In The Near Future

2011/2/14 16:54:00 141

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First, let's take the whole consideration into consideration. The reduction of cotton production this year is affirmative. What is uncertain now is the reduction of production and the main link in which cotton is now. This is also the purpose of my investigation.

Processing capacity of processing plant this year

Inventory

They are half less than last year.

I think there is a major problem in this year is that the same capital shortage this year is generally normal, which in turn considers whether cotton is still in the hands of cotton farmers or small traders, and the funds of small traders are also limited.

That is to say, cotton growers in cotton growers increased this year compared with the same period last year.

As a result, there will be room for further decline.

(don't think about your acquisition cost. That's for yourself. The processing plant should turn over a price difference. The stock is beyond your scope. It may earn a lot or lose a lot. That's the market.

According to this train of thought, I think this is that before the listing of new flower, the panic buying was increased with the increase of the national auction price, which increased the operation cost of the enterprises and resulted in a reduction in production.

(in the cotton market report fifth, which said the detailed process) because of too much price increases, there is a series of rising prices for the downstream industries, with the price rising, the ship is high, to a certain extent, there is a problem of market acceptance.

This is based entirely on the market.

Two, there are two reasons for this wave of decline.

Cotton price

Excessive market acceptance reduces demand.

The two is the accelerated decline in the country's fight against bubbles and stabilizing prices.

I think the suppression of the state only caused the decline of cotton in advance.

If the cotton is not pressed, it may continue to rise in the short term, but it will drop even more.

The consequences are even more serious.

Personal view, I hope you will look at the problem calmly.

Thinking carefully is not because I'm not happy with what I say.

I would like to talk about cotton form later, which may be of concern to all of us.

First, let's talk about the possible trend of cotton.

1, first stabilize in the rise this is

Spot merchant

Most want to see.

2, stabilize the market before continuing to fall, this is not willing to see spot traders.

3, the national pressure policy continues to exert pressure on the market. In the wait-and-see situation, we insist that prices continue to fall down and break down the psychological bottom line of inventories, and the market accepts the low price cotton market stability.

4, the end of the repressive policy, the rapid rise of cotton prices caused a new bubble, and then a big rise and fall.

This is a little dramatic.

I can't think of any other trend.

Let me focus on the first two trends.

The first is: if the cotton market is stabilized now, there will be a deal. Some of the factories will be ready to sell. Some will continue to wait and see. The main driving force will be higher textile profits. As long as the downstream industries can accept cotton prices will rise.

Such a rise will not go up as fast as before, but a steady rise.

It is mainly concerned with the shortage of cotton and the replenishment of textile factories over a period of time.

Possibility 30%

Second: This is the main consideration that most of the cotton is now in the pre textile stage. After stabilization, it will be sold so that there will be money to buy new flowers and continue production.

You may consider that cotton is not enough. I think this is a question I think for a few years. After this rise, the impact on the downstream is still very low, resulting in a reduction in production or even a shutdown. In addition, the state power restriction measures, I think cotton demand to a certain extent, a lot less.

This possibility is 50%.

The remaining two are 10%.

Other aspects that need to be considered include:

1. Supply side

1. Stock at the beginning of the year: it can be divided into production supplier inventory, operator inventory and government reserve.

2, output this year: it is the main body of cotton supply, including domestic and foreign total output, sowing area, weather, pests and other factors will directly affect the final output of various countries.

3, import volume: at present, there is a certain difference between domestic cotton price and international cotton price, which will stimulate imports, and the increase of China's imports will affect the international market price in turn.