Studies Show That The Undervaluation Of The RMB Exchange Rate Is Less Than 10%.

Recently, a research project of the China Development Research Foundation said that since July 2005, the reform of the exchange rate formation mechanism has achieved remarkable results, and the negative impact of foreign exchange reform on macroeconomic operation is small, alleviating the imbalance of exchange rate and balance of payments, and also setting aside time for the pformation and upgrading of export-oriented enterprises.

The study shows a significant improvement in the deviation of the RMB exchange rate to the equilibrium level. Although there is still a certain undervaluation, the rate of undervaluation is less than 10%.

The China Development Research Foundation released the "research and development foundation" in February 13th.

According to the estimation result of this topic model, in 2007 and 2008, the RMB appreciated by 7% against the US dollar every year. Compared with the situation of no appreciation, the actual GDP dropped by only 0.28 percentage points.

"If there is no gradual appreciation of the exchange rate, then we will face more liquidity problems and other problems."

The Secretary General of the China Development Research Foundation, Lu Mei, said that in the long run, the improvement of industrial structure brought about by exchange rate adjustment will help promote the long-term healthy development of the economy.

Exchange rate is the most important policy to regulate import and export.

Earlier, there was a view that the appreciation of the renminbi would cause a blow to China's export industry.

However, the empirical analysis of the group from 2000 to 2008 of 18 or more enterprises above Designated Size shows that the actual situation is just the opposite: the effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 1%, the proportion of enterprise exports to sales has dropped by about 0.2 percentage points, and the profit margin of enterprises has increased by 0.01 percentage points, which reflects the positive effect of improving the terms of trade and adjusting the industrial structure.

According to the statistics of the bank for International Settlements, since the reform of the RMB exchange rate regime in 2005, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by 14.7%, and the effective exchange rate has appreciated by 23.2% since December 2010.

From field research, though many

Research group found that in the short term, enterprises began to learn and use various measures to avoid foreign exchange risk; in the long run, enterprises have adjusted their way of operation, and the product structure of export-oriented enterprises has changed, and more enterprises have begun to shift from foreign market to domestic market.

There has been a lot of controversy over whether the RMB exchange rate is undervalued or underestimated.

The research group held that since the reform of the exchange rate, the deviation of the RMB exchange rate to the equilibrium level has improved significantly. Although it is still underestimated, its underestimation is less than 10%.

As China's labor productivity is still rising rapidly, it is expected that there will be a sustained appreciation pressure in terms of trade dependence, investment share of GDP and relative price level at home and abroad.

Although the exchange rate as a key price is crucial to economic restructuring, Zhang Xiaoji, a member of the research group and a researcher at the State Council Development Research Center, said that the premise of the exchange rate's role is to have relatively mature market conditions. Under the condition that China's market economic system reform has not yet been completed, "the RMB exchange rate can not be defeated."

He believes that in the reform of exchange rate formation mechanism, we should also promote the reform of wage system, price reform and resource tax reform. These reforms can not be delayed for a long time, and the pace of reform is stopped with a little bit of trouble.