Zheng Cotton Continues To Rush To Accumulate Commodity Risk.

In view of inflation pressure, the continuous high innovation of commodities has attracted national attention and market concerns, and the main keynote of domestic tightening monetary policy has remained unchanged. Although the strength of Zheng cotton is still on the plate, but the momentum is limited again.

Under the collective decline of foreign markets and the tightening of domestic concerns, Zheng cotton has dropped rapidly from a historical high of 34870 yuan / ton, and once fell through 30 thousand yuan / ton important support position.

But it was driven by the good external market of last weekend and the sharp rebound of the market on Monday.

Inflation balloon inflation risk accumulation

In the late February, events such as political, economic and natural disasters in the international market gathered. Tensions in Libya led to a record high oil price since the 2008 economic crisis and broke through 100 US dollars / barrel. The risk of demand has pushed gold prices back to the US $1400 market again.

Moodie lowered the outlook for Japan's sovereign rating from a stable to a negative one. The New Zealand earthquake triggered a sharp decline in the Asia Pacific stock market.

The cumulative effect has led to a panic in the commodity market and a rapid decline in commodities. There are signs that the risk of rising market is gradually accumulating.

The volatile situation and natural disasters are only the fuse of commodities' setback. What's more, the market's concerns about the continuous rising prices and the tightening of monetary policy and the determination to suppress inflation are all the main concerns.

Zhengmian main force rose nearly 2125 points in February 28th, ending with a daily limit.

It can be seen that in the short term, the strong pattern of Zheng cotton still exists, but the risk of the overall rise of commodities can not be ignored.

The central bank has consolidated the reserve requirement ratio for the two time this year, the eighth time since 2010.

After the rise, the deposit reserve ratio of large and medium-sized deposit financing institutions reached a historical high of 19.5%.

The series of combinations of central bank's continuous interest rate raising and deposit reserve ratio fully shows that the government's determination to control inflation at present also indicates that the current monetary policy is different from the previous two years, and has officially entered a regulatory cycle dominated by stability. In the first half of 2011, the government will adopt various measures to control prices, and various tightening measures will be introduced continuously.

It can be seen that the tone of monetary policy will not change.

Although some textile enterprises have started construction after the holidays, except for some key enterprises, there are policy guarantees for small enterprises or no resource superiority enterprises. Many of them are beset by capital tightening policies. The effect of continuous tightening of monetary policy before and after the new year is gradually emerging in the market.

For cotton, in addition to the market's worries about the international situation, the main reason is that the international market is worried about China's tight monetary policy. Tight policy will become the last straw to crush the small profit textile enterprises. High price cotton and capital shortfall will lead to a reduction in cotton consumption.

Therefore, in the domestic monetary policy tightening keynote unchanged, and the tightening effect of the early stage of the gradual emergence of concerns, the market's overall demand for cotton decreased and the cost of enterprise operation increased, and the latter would be bad for cotton prices.

Lido gradually subsided and uplink resistance increased.

A year ago, Zheng cotton was strong enough to go upstream.

Since the domestic spot market started just after a few years ago, the central circulation link of the cotton sales and the overall callback of the price to the spot market are still in the wait-and-see stage.

A large number of domestic commodities are concentrated in the middle circulation sector, and prices have not been significantly reduced. The 3 grade cotton prices are still hovering at high levels.

It can be seen that the consumption link has not added the enthusiasm of high priced cotton. Many factors in the early stage are gradually fading away, and the upward pressure of cotton price spot is increasing.

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Therefore, although commodities rose overall on Monday, the short term is still seen as a sharp rebound.

In view of the fact that inflation has led to excessive inflation, governments have been concerned about the issue, and the domestic monetary tightening policy remains unchanged. The latter market is still facing the risk of capital gap pressure.

We should pay close attention to the relevant policies and the overall trend of commodities in the near future.