In The Near Future, The Focus Of PTA Oscillation Will Move Downward, And The Risk Of Callback Will Increase.

At present, the price of the PTA phase is around 12000 yuan, and the instability in the Middle East has led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices.

However, in March 3rd, the cotton warehouse receipt conversion system introduced by Zheng Shang had a negative impact on cotton prices, and the "two sessions" put the price stabilization level at the top of the top ten priorities of this year.

Under the pressure of tighter domestic monetary and regulatory policies, high crude oil prices, pressure of economic recovery, and the PTA downstream market has not yet fully started, the downward trend of PTA price pressure appears, and the recent risk of callback increases.

Regulation and monetary policy tightening should not be ignored.

Cotton and PTA prices have reached a record high under inflation. Cotton prices are strong. Besides inflation and price inflation, there is also a new high price of cotton on the outside market, which is constantly supported by domestic supply and demand imbalance. However, the PTA price rises mainly in bulk.

China's monetary policy has shifted from loose to tight. Up to now, the Central Bank of China has increased interest rates for 3 consecutive times, raising the benchmark interest rate to 3%, but it still has a negative interest rate relative to the CPI index.

Under the pressure of increasing inflationary pressures at home and abroad and continuous high price of commodity prices, the government will further take control measures to cope with rising prices.

The pressure of tightening regulation and monetary policy on price increases can not be ignored. The basis for supporting PTA's upward price will be gradually missing.

The rise of crude oil costs support, and the intensity is limited.

The acceleration of crude oil growth has accelerated the rise of crude oil to a certain extent, boosting the prices of downstream chemicals. However, due to the sustained PTA production profits, the PTA production cost is maintained at about 9700 yuan / ton, and the cost of crude oil rising to high PTA is limited.

The high crude oil operation has brought cost support to the continuous rise of commodity prices, but it has also dragged down the global economic recovery process.

Facing the inflationary pressure of rising prices, following the emerging economies entering the interest rate cycle, the ECB's interest rate increase is expected to increase, and the impact of the Fed's QE2 is also weakening.

Since late February, the continuous rise of crude oil prices has led to the rise and fall of commodities.

Under the background of global economic recovery and intensive domestic price regulation policies, the impact of rising oil price on PTA's cost support or overall price trend is limited.

Downstream consumption is slow to start, not optimistic.

Inflation has led to price inflation too fast, which has affected the fluctuation of commodity operation.

According to the market situation in past years, polyester sales in the lower reaches of PTA generally enter the seasonal peak season in 3 and April. However, under the dual function of inflation stimulation and high cotton price operation, the price of PTA has been continuing upward trend since October 2010.

The price of PTA rose too fast before the Spring Festival. When the price reached 12000 yuan / ton, the demand for stocking was not immediately followed by the slow reflow of downstream products. The sales of textile products were light, and the high priced raw materials were difficult to pfer to the downstream, so that the downstream market could not afford the high price PTA.

At present,

Facing the inflationary pressure, monetary policy at home and abroad has been tightened gradually. Since the second half of last year, the tightening effect of China's central bank raising interest rates and raising deposit reserve ratio will appear gradually.

At present, PTA production is lucrative, and the high price of crude oil is not obvious for its stimulation effect.

PTA downstream consumer market has been delayed effectively by various factors, which will affect the upward trend of PTA.

On the whole, the focus of PTA oscillations will move down in the near future, and the risk of callbacks will increase.