Zheng Cotton Shock Aggravated &Nbsp, Or Now Many Opportunities To Build Midline.

In February, Zheng cotton deducted a wave of falling prices.

ICE cotton monthly trend is also roughly divided into two stages: first, relying on the 10 day moving average, and even facing the bad news of China's raising the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions, there is no much response, creating a new high price in 150 years.

Later, China's market was dragged down, and in the last week it was synchronized with zhengmian in Waterloo.

In February, the stock of cotton industry increased in the whole country due to the greater intensity of the replenishment and the slowdown in production before the Spring Festival.

Therefore, it was deduced that the purchasing intention of large scale replenishment in March was not strong, and basically maintained with the strategy of buying and buying.

According to the sampling survey of the national cotton market monitoring system, as of February 11th, the average daily use of cotton in the sample survey enterprises was about 42 days (including the number of imported cotton in the port), an increase of 6.8% compared with the same period, an increase of 12.8% over the same period last year.

The number of days used in January was 39 days.

At present the whole country

In the first two months of 2011, global climate and output factors attracted much attention.

Now entering the preparation stage, the market is concerned about the report of the US cotton planting intention released at the end of March.

The global cotton production and demand forecast for March released by the International Cotton Advisory Committee on 1 may concluded that global cotton production will reach its highest level in 2011/12 due to a record high cotton price in the year of ICAC3.

The report estimated that the total area of cotton planted in the world grew by 7% in 2011/12, reaching 36 million hectares, the highest level in nearly 17 years.

The planting area of all cotton producing countries will increase, and global production is expected to exceed 27 million tons, an increase of 9% over the same period last year.

China's planting area has increased by 6%, and its output is expected to grow by 13% to 7 million 400 thousand tons.

India's planting area is expected to grow by 5% and output to 6 million tons.

The output of Pakistan, Turkey and the United States is expected to reach 2 million 200 thousand tons, 575 thousand tons and 4 million 200 thousand tons respectively, representing an increase of 19%, 15% and 6% over the same period.

Meanwhile, cotton production in Africa and South America will also increase significantly.

From the downstream point of view, January

In my opinion, the adjustment of cotton in the last week of February is not unexpected, but the time is ahead of schedule.

The main reason is the excessive market speculation and lack of spot support.

The domestic market has been waiting for the landing of macro-control boots, with caution.

However, offshore funds ignored this point, and the banner of big shortage of supply of agricultural products increased wildly.

Finally, it leads to the high cold, and the fund realizes the perfect profit escaping.

In view of this, although the market supply tense situation has not changed, but in March cotton or temporarily lose rising kinetic energy.

First, the turmoil in the Middle East has exacerbated the risk of global economic recovery from the recovery trajectory, and the global capital market has a strong risk aversion. Secondly, the sharp rise in agricultural prices has led to the determination of the national attention and monetary tightening policy.

In addition, other factors such as weather, Chinese demand and other speculation factors are weakening and losing freshness.

It is estimated that the shock between Zheng Guan and the 30 thousand high points will increase, such as spot cost support and no obvious drop.