Great Adjustment Does Not Change Cotton "Cattle" Potential

Zheng cotton on Monday after the 33000 pass, there was a big diving market on Tuesday. cotton Whether the price is going to collapse or not, is the market top already coming? I believe that the market's anxiety is causing adjustment, and the long-term trend of cotton is still good.

The recent turmoil in North Africa has triggered a surge in crude oil prices, exacerbating global worries about the recovery of the world economy. But in the short term, the International Energy Agency and OPEC and other international organizations pay close attention to high oil prices. The developed economies have enough strategic oil reserves, and the ability to jointly regulate oil prices is enough to cope with the sharp rise in oil prices. In the long run, the economic data of the developed economies show that the pace of economic recovery is good and the trajectory of economic recovery is becoming clearer. As a result, the situation in North Africa is only a short-term worry to market sentiment, and does not exclude the adjustment of commodity market. However, the long-term trend of commodity recovery laid down by the world economic recovery will not be undermined.

Rapid growth of domestic textile industry investment

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the fixed investment of China's textile industry maintained a relatively rapid growth in 2010. textile Clothing exports are good, exceeding the level before the financial crisis. Exports of textiles and yarns and fabrics were 77 billion 100 million US dollars, an increase of 28.4% over the same period, and 129 billion 500 million US dollars for export garments and accessories, an increase of 20.9% over the same period last year.

Judging from last year's whole year, with the improvement of the global economic situation, our textile industry's investment belief has been restored. The increase in investment means that the textile industry has enough stamina. Although China's textile industry has been affected by unfavorable factors such as rising raw material prices, increasing labor costs and RMB appreciation this year, the textile industry, as a traditional dominant industry in China, has been unable to underestimate its ability to digest its unfavorable factors after nearly 10 years of entry into WTO. Judging from the information delivered by the two sessions, China will strive to adjust the pattern of national income and raise the income of residents this year. The growth of domestic demand has provided a broad stage for the development of the textile industry. It is worth looking forward to the continuous development of the textile industry.

International cotton Goods in stock Resources are tight and prices are high.

The international market of cotton is characterized by its limited resources and high price. US cotton exports are booming, and there is little left for export this year. According to the US Department of agriculture, as of February this year, on the 24 day of the week, the United States contracted cotton for 3 million 366 thousand tons in that year. The annual output of the US Department of agriculture is 3 million 989 thousand tons, and the remaining cotton is only 623 thousand tons. The remaining cotton also has to meet the domestic consumption demand of 781 thousand tons, and the resources available for export have been sold out. Affected by the impact of rainfall on India's cotton market, the output forecast data dropped by 5%. The number of exports of 5 million 500 thousand packages approved before was difficult to increase.

With limited resources and strong demand, the US cotton price has hit a new high. The price of international cotton to our ports has always been higher than the domestic spot and futures prices, and the price of imported cotton to port has risen to 40 thousand yuan / ton. In March 7th, the price index of imported cotton was 243.75 cents / pound, up 6.43 cents / pound, 1% yuan 40589 yuan / ton, and 40834 yuan / ton of discount tax. It can be expected that the cotton shortage will become the main keynote of the market before the new cotton comes into the market next year.

Spot demand is insipid, busy season needs attention.

China's cotton spot market was flat in early March. Because of the slow sale of yarn in the cotton mill, it is difficult to increase sales. Although the stock is not high, the purchasing intention of the mills is not strong, and most of them adopt the strategy of buying and using. The sluggish spot makes China's futures price rise blocked. Even if US cotton prices hit a record high in recent years, Zheng cotton did not appear to have risen sharply.

In March 8th, China's cotton spot price index (CCIndex328) rose to 31241, up 236 points. After the Spring Festival, spot prices have been rising steadily. From the perspective of enterprises, textile enterprises are full of confidence in the post market sales. The textile market will have a large number of orders in 4 and May, and the start of spot market will provide support for futures prices.

To sum up, under the influence of anxiety, the market will be sharply adjusted in the short term. However, the overall price of the textile industry is good, and the high price of international cotton will lead to the trend of cotton prices in China. Spot market from light to flourishing may be the starting point of the price starting point. The sharp adjustment of the low point of the market will become a better buying opportunity.