Liu Junhong: The Impact Of Japan'S 9 Magnitude Earthquake On The Economy

The Japanese earthquake was right.

Japan: affecting many aspects of the economy

Liu Junhong believes that the earthquake and its tsunami will affect many aspects of the Japanese economy.

First, disasters have destroyed many pportation infrastructure such as ports, railways, highways, bridges and so on, which will inevitably cause disorder in production and life for a period of time.

The two is the spring ploughing now, and a large number of farmland along the coast is flooded, and grain is likely to fail.

Especially in the hardest hit area around Sendai, the main rice producing area in Japan, and rice as the staple food of Japanese citizens, its price will rise to the daily life of the people.

Three, Japan is the world's leading importer and exporter of resources.

The disaster occurred in the eastern coastal area of Japan. Once the sea passage is blocked, it will affect the national economy and the world economy.

The four is the closure of the 11 nuclear reactors, the fire of several refineries and the obstruction of energy import channels, which will affect the energy supply of Japan to a large extent.

Aftershocks continue to force nuclear power stations not to be restarted very soon. It is estimated that Japan's power supply will not return to normal within a week.

Japan's oil price has been affected by the turmoil in the Middle East in the early stage, and the price increase is inevitable.

Liu Junhong also said that the disaster did not have any damaging influence on Japanese enterprises.

This is mainly because the main capacity of Japanese enterprises is overseas, and the safety precautions in their own factories are also in place.

China: processing enterprises may be affected

Liu Junhong said that the disaster is mainly affecting the processing enterprises in China.

Japan is the main supplier of China's means of production, mainly exporting processing products such as parts of China's electronic products to China and other Asian countries.

The disaster may affect China's automobile, toys, petrochemical, electronic products and other industries.

Reconstruction of the disaster area: does the government have any money?

The world economy is also difficult to escape.

Liu Junhong said Japan's capital flow is the main force of the world economy.

If this disaster causes the yen to depreciate, then the trend of Asian exports shrinking will be more obvious, which will affect the chain of operation of the world economy.

There is a view that after the Hanshin earthquake in 1995, Japan turned out to be a blessing in disguise. The economy got rid of the downturn for 1996 years, and went out for 1997 consecutive years.

This Japanese government may be able to repeat the "glory of the day".

But Liu Junhong believes that the disaster situation and the economic environment in Japan are quite different from those in the Hanshin earthquake.

The Hanshin earthquake destroyed a large number of residential and infrastructural facilities in Japan. The Japanese economic bubble just broke down at that time, and the government helped the Japanese economy out of the doldrums with the help of investment and reconstruction.

The disaster is different.

First, from the current situation, disasters do not cause huge losses to housing, infrastructure and so on.

The second point is also the most terrible problem. Now the Japanese government is heavily indebted.

At present, the Japanese government's debt is two times that of GDP, and the national debt has just been downgraded by the rating agencies. The government has no money to relieve the disaster and rebuild.

If we do not have enough funds to do so, the national debt will be further downgraded.

The fall in the price of treasury bonds may affect the yen exchange rate, and affect the Asian and global economy through the reverse linkage between the yen exchange rate and the Asian economy.