Three Rice Straw Overwhelms Gem &Nbsp; Valuation Moves Downward.

On the 30 day, the external stock market rose sharply, while A shares continued to fall.

However, in banking, steel and so on

Count the recent

Three rice straw to overtake the growth enterprise market

The latest view of the famous financial commentator, he wan man, is that although the gem has almost been cut down, it has not really seen the bottom.

Theoretically, the growth rate corresponding to 58.34 times earnings should be around 50%, but the 2010 annual report and performance bulletin showed that the total operating income of GEM companies was 78 billion 688 million yuan, an increase of 38.67%, achieving a net profit of 13 billion 660 million yuan, an increase of 31.76%, lower than the growth rate of more than 1000 listed companies that have been published annually (36.14%).

More noteworthy is that code 300001 (39.370,0.09,0.23%) to 300036 (hypergraph software (28.380, -0.13, -0.46%) of GEM companies are listed in 2009, they have gone through a complete financial year in the capital market, although the 36 companies, though revenue growth 44.8%, can only grow 24.37% profit, 15.190,0.01,0.07%, Xinning logistics (14.200,0.04,0.28%), Jinlong Electrical and mechanical (24.900,0.01,0.04%) 5 companies are negative growth.

At the same time, the overall debt ratio of these 36 companies is less than 20%, that is to say, most of the stock raising funds have not been put into use in the past year, and have not produced any benefits.

Cai Huawei, an analyst with Shenyang Wanguo Securities, told reporters: "there is a lot of straw to crush the growth enterprise board, but in my view, two straws are more specific at present.

The first one is the lifting of the ban of 300 billion yuan in mid April. This is the month when the lifting of the ban is the biggest in all the month. In such a huge lifting share ban, small and medium-sized boards and gem occupy more than 40% of the shares.

Now the gem has an average price earnings ratio of 74 times, and more than 20 companies with a market value exceeding 5 billion, far exceeding the replacement cost and overcoming growth in the next few years. Unless the company is excellent, the desire to cash in will be stronger.

The second straw is the high price and high price earnings ratio of the growth enterprise board. With the introduction of the new three boards, the high valuation of the gem will no longer be attractive. The more flexible new three boards will attract some speculative funds gathered in the gem.

The fear of the lifting of the ban on the GEM market will usually break out before the lifting of the ban. This is also the case between March and April last year. There was a sharp fall in the gem, and then the upward trend was restored.

Uncertain opportunities

Cai Huawei said, from the annual report performance, the growth rate of gem is far lower than the growth rate of small and medium board, and even lower than the growth rate of the main board. At present, the dynamic price earnings ratio of gem is 70 times higher. Considering that the gem will usher in a centralized ban in the middle of April, the overall valuation of GEM companies will move down.

He believes that when the tide of lifting the ban is really lifted in mid April, the GEM stocks will start to rebound, and this fall will last until the Qingming Festival. After he judges Qingming, the stock market will generally rebound.

Xiang Cai securities strategist Xu Guangfu also said that the recent emergence of gem executives resignation tide, and then consider the first batch of gem ban, it is expected to have a more significant impact on GEM.

"Many companies in gem have already passed the start-up period, and the possibility of a burst of performance is not great; and the cost of the original shareholders is extremely low, so there will be a reduction impulse."

However, since the market value of the gem is not large, it is not expected to have a significant impact on the market as a whole.

There are also some market participants who believe that the real "culprit" of the gem's fall is due to the excessive speed of IPO and the excessive rhythm of issuance.

The market participants said that the gem itself "bubble" is too large, the speed of IPO is too fast, the performance of individual GEM listed companies "face" or even financial fraud, resulting in people lose confidence in this sector.

As a result, a well-known brokerage firm asset management headquarters in Chengdu, an interview with reporters, also expressed concern about the aftermarket.

"Last year's annual report shows that the growth of GEM listed companies is far below market expectations, and the overvaluation is no longer sustainable.

Moreover, as the second batch of lifting shares is approaching, the growth enterprise market is likely to usher in a wave of valuation regression. Investors should avoid the growth enterprise market and at least avoid those stocks that are far from the fundamentals.