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Cotton Price = Doomsday?

2011/4/18 9:53:00 119

Since the beginning of 2011, Raw material price Showing a trend of first rise and fall. cotton Raw materials represent variety 329. Medium Cotton The average price of the plant rose steadily from 27800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to nearly 32000 yuan / ton in March 10th, or about 15%, which has continued since December last year. upper The upward trend; then began to turn around. Fall It fell below 31000 yuan / ton in April 1st, and dropped by about 4% in 20 days. In April 15th, the national cotton trading market, the electronic matchmaking of commodity cotton reached 13180 tons, with the last one. transaction Less than 6000 tons per day. Order quantity A reduction of 2080 tons and a cumulative order of 87540 tons. Market shrinkage today reduce one's position size Continue the downtrend. MA1105 average price of 28028 yuan, down 232 yuan. MA1109 average price of 28012, down 338 yuan.

Zheng cotton bull market interval into the range of shocks

Recently, market The prices of raw materials in China are still fluctuating frequently. For cotton alone, from March to the present, " Skyrocketing "And" Plunge Alternately, the entire domestic raw material market is overwhelmed, but in contrast to foreign countries, it is so calm that there is no domestic surge.

China is the largest cotton consuming country and producing country in the world.

It has been said that the reason why cotton prices fluctuate in such a short period of time is due to the rise in the price of RMB. Some people say that this is due to the impact of the Japanese earthquake on the import and export of raw materials in China, which has further affected the fluctuation of domestic raw material prices. Some people say that this is caused by downstream demand, and some people say that this is caused by the speculation of idle capital. But no matter what kind of speculation and evaluation, we have seen a mess in the recent raw material market in China.

Cotton prices rose across the board.

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　　 Let's take a look at several sets of data.

　　 From mid September 2010 to early November, cotton prices surged from 18200 yuan to 33000 yuan, or 72%, in less than two months.

The international cotton price cotlookA index has fluctuated upward trend since December 1, 2010, rising from 147.55 cents / pound in December 1st to 236.25 cents / pound in March 4th, or 60.12%, about 3 times the increase of domestic cotton and the widening gap between domestic cotton price and domestic cotton price. In March 8th, the highest level of history was 243.65 cents / pound, and then changed from concussion to concussion. In March, the average price was higher than the domestic average price of 6000 yuan / ton.

In 2011 1~2, the net import volume of raw cotton in China was about 570 thousand tons, an increase of 50 thousand tons compared with the same period last year. However, in February, it was 210 thousand tons less than that in January, and a decrease of 53% in the annulus.

In from March 14th to 18th, Japan's nuclear crisis caused a heavy setback in the global financial market, and New York cotton futures prices closed down for 3 consecutive trading days.

In March 23rd, in the textile industry, cotton prices rose by 103.07% over the same period last year, down by 1.38%. In the agricultural and sideline products processing industry, the price of most products rose more than the price of raw materials, peanut oil prices rose 48.31% compared to the same period last year, and the price of wheat and flour decreased slightly. In the petrochemical industry, crude oil prices fell by 6.86%.

In March 31st, domestic cotton spot market cotton prices continued to drop 300 yuan / ton. China's cotton price index fell 30128, 207, 4, 29030, 200, 5, 27109, and 197. Today, China's cotton price refers to (CCIndex328) 30251 yuan / ton, rising by 349 yuan.

In April 8th, the benchmark ICE cotton contract in May fell 5.25 cents, or 2.5%, at $2.0297 a pound and traded at 2.0125 to 1.1240 dollars.

In April 12th, China's cotton price was (CCIndex328) 29513 yuan / ton, down 89 yuan, and the average price of 527 grade cotton to plant was 26742 yuan / ton, or 26 yuan.

In April 14th, China's cotton price was (CCIndex328) 29452 yuan / ton, down 61 yuan, and the average price of 527 grade cotton to plant was 26721 yuan / ton, or 21 yuan. 。 {page_break}

To sum up, since the middle of September last year, global cotton prices have generally fluctuated widely. It is understood that Turkey, the United States, Britain, India, Brazil, China, Japan and other domestic cotton prices have seen a sharp rise and fall, making the raw material market extremely unstable.

Looking at it, cotton prices rise first, then fall, then rise and fall again, which makes cotton farmers and Cotton Traders overwhelmed. In many cases, because of the instability of this phenomenon, many cotton textile enterprises frequently suffer large losses. Many cotton companies even dare not buy cotton again. Many of them still remain on the sidelines until now.

At the beginning of this year, due to frequent fluctuations in cotton prices and the sharp rise and fall, cotton farmers in different areas sowed their hands in the sowing season. Some local cotton farmers worry that cotton prices fluctuate and whether cotton is planted or not, and their confidence is extremely low.

Cotton prices in different parts of China

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What triggers such a "cotton revolution"?

The author thinks that the biggest reason is the frequent natural disasters in the world in recent years. Starting from the 2012 Premiere of the disastrous film about the end of the world, it seems that the earth's environment has begun to retaliate against humanity. Natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, mudslides, floods, gale and hail occur frequently all over the world. Especially in China, the first was the Wenchuan earthquake, followed by the Yushu earthquake, the Zhouqu debris flow, and the frequent earthquakes in Yunnan border this year. The next wave of "Wrath" from mother earth does not seem to stop.

It is not just because of these domestic disasters that have brought the volatility of our market and the price instability of raw materials market, but also the great fluctuations of the market and the ups and downs of the Dow Jones index brought by Japan's earthquake, tsunami and nuclear radiation.

If it's the end of the world, what is the first thing you think of?

It is no exaggeration to say that these disasters have brought natural disasters to mainland China, even Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and the whole world, and have brought great crises to the economies of various countries and regions. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has not yet passed, and the new crisis has surfaced again. {page_break}

More and more businessmen and political scientists feel that this unprecedented crisis is approaching us and torturing us. It can be seen from cotton prices. So how do we deal with it?

The author believes that natural disasters in recent years are enough for human beings to learn lessons from blood. The government and people should unite to jointly check and balance the raw material crisis brought about by disasters. We know that raw materials are now the most basic process of all trades and industries, and they are always the first processes. Without raw materials, there will be no products of all human civilizations now. Only by stabilizing the prices of raw materials, can the situation of various commodity prices fluctuate and be difficult to stabilize in the whole market.

The end of the world, a disaster we never want to face.

The government will take the lead in becoming the first line of control. Strengthening macroeconomic regulation and control can further enhance the government's influence and strength in the private sector, as well as the legal power. We should prevent more illegal traders from making unlawful bid prices, laying a solid foundation for the prosperity and stability of the whole market.

Next, manufacturers of raw materials for production and sale should actively cooperate with the government's regulatory policies, face the market's fluctuations positively and rationally, adjust a price, and stabilize the market. In particular, cotton prices must be stabilized in a short period of time to a basic small range. Clothing, food and shelter, dressing is always in the first place! To solve the problem of cotton is not to take people's livelihood seriously.

Finally, the cohesion of all the people. In the face of disasters, we should not panic and should not give financial pressure to the government and the state. We should unite as a whole to resist the social unlawful phenomenon of arbitrary price and arbitrary charges, actively cooperate with the macro control of Party and government organs, resolutely refuse to buy smuggled goods not approved by the government, and resolutely and effectively crack down on illegal business activities of illegal traders, and earnestly safeguard the legal obligations and rights of a Chinese citizen.

Looking forward to international developments, South Korea seems to have been a united nation. In the face of disasters, they are always able to unite their country and offer their meager strength for the country to tide over difficulties. And we China is a great country. Why can't we learn from Koreans? The author suggests that we should actively participate in patriotic action. Only in this way can we help our country stabilize prices faster, stabilize the momentum of RMB appreciation and stabilize inflation, and contribute to China's prosperity and economic development.

On behalf of the world clothing shoes and hat net, the author sincerely hopes that our raw material market and the whole big economic system will be stabilized as soon as possible, so as to achieve a harmonious and steady development as soon as possible and to embark on the road of national prosperity and national prosperity as soon as possible.