Looking At The Whole Year'S Economic Trend From The First Quarter: A Good Start &Nbsp; "Stable" Word Prominent

The first quarter of China

"Judging from the main indicators of the first quarter, the national economy has continued steady and rapid growth since the second half of last year, showing a steady economic growth and increased employment.

There are two kinds of worries about China's economy this year: one worry is that the economy is fast and even overheated everywhere during the opening year. Another worry is that the contraction of policy is too tight and the economy is down sharply.

"The biggest feature of the economic operation in the first quarter is" stable ", stable industry, stable investment, stable foreign trade and consumption, and avoiding the ups and downs of the economy.

Economist Yao Jingyuan told Xinhua news agency.

As premier Wen Jiabao pointed out at the executive meeting of the State Council, China's current economic growth rate is at a reasonable level.

Compared with historical data, we can see that the economic growth rate of 9.7% in the first quarter of this year is basically the same as the average economic growth since the reform and opening up.

Since the third quarter of last year, China's economy has maintained an annual growth rate of 9.5% to 10% in the three quarter, and the stability of economic growth has increased significantly.

Compared with the year-on-year data, the loop data can more sensitively reflect the latest changes in the economy.

The National Bureau of statistics issued the first ring data of major economic indicators. The economy grew by 2.1% in the first quarter. In March, the industrial added value increased by 1.19%. In March, the investment grew by 1.73%. In March, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.34%.

"The four main economic data in the first quarter are all positive growth, indicating that the current trend of economic growth is upward."

Lian Ping, chief economist of Bank of communications, thinks that

It is particularly noteworthy that in the context of the withdrawal of stimulus policies, the rapid growth of private investment is gratifying.

Statistics show that private investment in the first quarter increased by 31.5% over the previous year, which is 6.5 percentage points higher than that of the whole investment.

"The strength of private investment indicates the enhancement of endogenous economic power and the improvement of investment structure, which is very beneficial to the steady and healthy development of the economy throughout the year and even longer."

Zhu Baoliang, deputy director of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, pointed out.

Taking all factors into consideration, there will be no big problems in supporting the economic development this year.

Although the growth rate of consumption has dropped, it is still higher than the average level in recent years, and this decline has both the active regulation factors and the return of the policy to normal.

Because our country is in the acceleration period of urbanization, the potential, space and power of consumption growth are still strong.

Despite the deficit in the first quarter, the external demand will still maintain steady and rapid growth as the world economy is still recovering.

"Judging from the operation of the" three carriages "driving economic growth, we initially judged that the possibility of stable growth of the national economy in the first half and even the whole year is relatively large.

Sheng Lai Yun pointed out.

While trying to solve the most prominent contradiction of price, the state has also attached great importance to stabilizing the economic growth. It clearly pointed out that we should deal well with the relationship between curbing inflation and promoting economic growth, which not only eliminates the monetary factors of inflation, but also meets the financial needs of the real economy.

Yao Jingyuan analysis pointed out that, in general, as the first quarter of the economic start, this year's economy will also highlight the word "stable".

Economic growth will be relatively stable, prices should also strive to achieve a relatively stable, to create a good environment for structural adjustment, "12th Five-Year" will achieve a better start.

Economists generally believe that although China's economic operation is relatively stable, it should not be taken lightly.

There are still many uncertainties and unstable factors affecting the smooth operation of the economy, especially the price situation is still grim, and energy conservation and emission reduction is not optimistic. Some new problems may arise at any time.

"The next stage is to maintain the continuity and stability of macroeconomic policies, improve pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness, persist in handling the relationship between maintaining stable and rapid economic development, adjusting the economic structure and managing inflation expectations, further consolidating the good momentum of economic development, ensuring the goal of economic and social development this year, and making a good step for the '12th Five-Year'.

Sheng Lai Yun emphasizes.