"Rating Gate" Disturb The Global Market &Nbsp; Sustained Damage Should Not Be Great.

Last week, the ratings agency, standard & Poor's, who was bothered by the congressional report on the "blame" report threw a blockbuster on Monday.

Dragged down by the news, the United States

In fact, after the crash on Monday, the US and European stock markets showed signs of stabilization on Tuesday.

As of 22:35 Beijing time, the main European stock markets rebounded slightly, ranging from 0.5% to 1.6%, while the three major U.S. stock indexes rose by about 0.4%.

Us and European stock markets suffer direct impact

Insiders say that the move of S & P on Monday is rather rare, the first such measure taken by the agency in the past 70 years.

Therefore, the news also has a direct impact on the US and European stock markets that day.

S & P said that the White House and congressional Republican leaders had been debating for weeks about how to solve the long-run fiscal deficit, but the two sides offered serious differences.

S & P believes that the United States may not be able to reach an agreement to solve long-term financial problems by 2013, so it decided to reduce its outlook rating.

This means that if the divergence between the 6 months and the next two years is still unresolved, the probability that the US Treasury bonds will lose the highest AAA rating will exceed 33%.

The downgrade will directly affect the international status of the US economy and the US dollar, increase the borrowing cost of US consumers and enterprises, and increase the difficulty and cost of borrowing in the US.

With investors' in-depth reading of the above news, the US stock market dived after opening Monday, and the three major indexes dropped nearly 1%.

In the end, the Dow, the S & P 500 index and the NASDAQ fell 1.1%.

European stock markets were also implicated. The three largest stock markets in Britain, France and Germany lost more than 2% in intraday growth.

Tuesday's Asia Pacific market was also affected.

On the 19 day of Tokyo, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2%, which lasted for two days, the longest decline in more than a month.

More than 80% of the shares fell.

In a single regional stock market, the Japanese stock market fell 1.2%, hitting a three week low.

Korea's stock market fell 0.7%.

The Australian stock market fell 1.4% to a three week low.

Hong Kong stocks fell 1.3%, while the Hang Seng Index closed at a low point since this month.

Schroder J, a fund manager of Pengana capital in Australia, said the news of S & P brought obvious pressure to the financial market on Tuesday.

"If the United States is really degraded, its impact will no doubt be global."

Gold prices are high

Also hit by oil markets.

As the recent market worries about high oil prices have begun to curb demand, the news of the S & P downgrade has dragged down the international oil price decline.

Crude oil futures plunged 1.3% to $105.7 in May during the European trading session on Tuesday.

The contract fell 2.3% to $107.12 a barrel in the New York market the day before.

London June Brent crude futures fell $1.81 Monday to $121.64 a barrel.

Recently, many OPEC ministers said that high oil prices could impact the world economy and affect crude oil consumption.

Recent worries in the market have begun to rise, dragging crude oil futures away from the two-and-a-half high above $113 a barrel earlier this month.

And the S & P's negative rating measures to the world's largest consumer of crude oil in the United States have further worried the oil market.

Corresponding to the stock market and the sharp drop in oil prices is the continued strengthening of the risk assets such as gold and silver. The gold price hit a new high on Monday, heading for the $1500 mark.

On the 18 day in New York, gold futures closed at a record high and silver futures reached a 31 year high.

Analysts noted that S & P adjusted the outlook for the US rating to negative, triggering investor risk aversion.

On the 18 day of closing, the New York futures exchange's most active June gold futures contract rose 6.90 US dollars to 1492.90 US dollars, or 0.5%, to refresh the highest closing record of 15 days in Comex.

In the 18 day of trading, the price of gold hit $1498.6.

Spot silver rose to $43.525 an ounce on the day, the highest since 1980.

The bond market is calm.

However, despite the downgrading of the US Treasury bond rating, the bond market itself has been particularly calm and the US dollar has been quite healthy.

In the New York market on Monday, the US dollar index rose or rose by 0.9%.

The euro fell 1.4% against the dollar.

Some analysts believe that the recent market worries about the European debt crisis have rekindled, helping to support the US dollar.

In the US Treasury market, treasury bonds, including 30 years long debt, did not rise or fall on Monday, and yields fell.

The yield on 10 - year treasury bonds fell to 3.38% on Monday, hitting a 3.37% month low of nearly a month.

Usually, if a country's rating is lowered, the yield of its treasury bond will rise sharply.

Citigroup analysts believe that the market has a common understanding of the poor financial situation in the United States, and the downgrade of S & P's rating outlook is a long-term view.

Some analysts believe that the S & P's downgrade measures may not be all bad things, and are expected to push Washington to abandon differences and reach agreement on the deficit issue as soon as possible.

Moodie, a rating agency, even said this week that the debate over the budget could be a turning point in the country's credit situation.

Many investors believe that the S & P's downgrade measures may not become the "Waterloo" of the stock market, although the market is likely to fluctuate in the short term, influenced by quarterly reports.

Biggs, a well-known hedge fund manager, said on Monday that he remained optimistic about the US stock market after S & P lowered its outlook for us credit rating.

Joey, a strategist at Columbia management company in Boston, believes that the sound performance of the Treasury bond market may indicate that the stock market will rebound.

The evidence that investors' willingness to sell is not strong. The overnight turnover is relatively mild, even in the Asia Pacific market on Tuesday.

The 19 day European market generally stabilized after the opening of the main stock market. The three major indexes of Britain and France rose from 0.4% to 0.5% in early trading.

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There is no need to worry too much about China's external storage security.

After the news of the long-term credit rating outlook of the United States declined from "stability" to "negative", China is the largest holder of US Treasury bonds.

People interviewed by the press believe that there is no need to worry too much about the safety of external storage, but we must pay close attention to risks. This kind of event reminds China again to strengthen diversification and diversify market risks.

Data show that as of the end of 2, China holds US $11541 billion of US Treasury bonds, the largest creditor of US Treasury bonds, most of which are long-term bonds.

And at present, US Treasury bonds will remain an important investment market in China's foreign exchange reserves for a long time.

Liu Dongliang, a senior analyst at China Merchants Bank, said that the S & P's low outlook on long-term credit rating to the US had no impact on China's foreign exchange reserves.

After the news came out, the market only responded immediately. The yield of short-term treasury bonds rose. The yields of long-term treasury bonds declined slightly, and the yields of all maturities were falling all day long.

He believes that the impact of this incident on China's external reserves is based on the special position of the US dollar and that the United States will not experience financing problems.

Ding Zhijie, Dean of the school of finance at the University of foreign trade and economics, expressed cautious concern about foreign reserves.

He pointed out that after the S & P lowered its outlook on long-term credit rating to the United States, bond yields fell again after rising, but did not exclude that future yields would rise further. The Treasury bonds held by China would be at risk of falling prices.

He also warned that the risk of long-term treasury bonds is even greater than that of short-term treasury bonds.

Ding Zhijie believes that the current strategy we can take is to pay close attention to risks. The global financial market is still unstable, and we must be prepared for a certain degree of loss to foreign reserves. At the same time, we look forward to a more responsible macroeconomic policy in Europe and the United States.

There are also market participants who remind us that we must speed up the diversification process of foreign reserves and not put eggs in the same basket.

Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said on the evening of 18, the accumulated foreign exchange reserves must be well managed, the most important of which is diversification.

Data released by the US Treasury show that China has been reducing its holdings of US Treasury bonds for four consecutive months while Japan and the United Kingdom continue to substantially increase their holdings of treasury bonds during the period from the end of last year to the beginning of this year.

According to market participants, China may increase its holdings of Eurobonds and emerging market bonds to a certain extent.

(reporter Li Dandan)

Rating crisis threatens interest of overseas US investors

S & P's bad news for us ratings could further exacerbate the dollar's weakness, bad dollar assets.

Analysts believe that S & P's downgrade of the US outlook on Monday is a warning for investors holding large amounts of US dollar assets in Asia, that is, future losses of such assets and diversification of assets will be the trend.

Because Europe is in debt crisis again, the dollar escaped on Monday. After the announcement of downgrade, S & amp; P, the dollar index stubbornly closed up 0.9%.

However, this does not change the weakness of the US dollar this year, and the US dollar index based on a basket of trading partner currencies has fallen by more than 5% so far this year.

Experts pointed out that similar to the S & P released bad news for the US rating, will only further exacerbate the dollar's weakness, bad dollar assets.

Casey, head of research at GFT, said that S & P's downgrading of the US rating outlook and the historically low US interest rate would only further weaken the attractiveness of the US dollar.

"Even though I do not think that the rating will be downgraded, this is enough news for investors holding or buying dollars at a time when the dollar is very sensitive and fragile."

She said.

John Hill, chief economist of Wells Fargo, said on Tuesday that S & P's latest move reminds us that the poor US budget situation is unsustainable in the long run.

Sylvia said that if the financial situation of the United States does not improve significantly, then the dollar will probably continue to depreciate. At the same time, interest rates and inflation will rise. This will mean a great loss to many overseas investors, especially Asian investors, who have a large number of US bond portfolios.

US Treasury statistics show that as of February this year, Asian central banks, including China, remain the largest overseas holders of US Treasuries.

China and Japan are the top two holders of US debt, holding nearly $2 trillion, while other Asian central banks also have a large number of US debt.

In fact, recently, some professional investors have begun to make short selling of US dollar assets such as US Treasury bonds.

Gross, the star fund manager of PIMCO, the world's largest bond fund manager, is a typical one.

In February, Grosse's largest global bond fund, the TRF, which had a total asset size of $236 billion, sold all its holdings of US Treasury bonds.

Recent information on the PIMCO website also shows that gross began shorting US debt in the financial market in March.

In March, the fund held a 3% share of the US debt market, while in January it held 12% of the US debt.

Grosse, who is known as "bond king", said he expects us interest rates to rise and the US dollar to fall, and the US will eventually lose its AAA's highest debt rating.

Martin, an analyst at Weiss research firm, noted that at the BRICs leaders meeting last week, the main emerging economies were concerned about the problem of "dominance" and possible risks.

The Sanya declaration, released on the 14 day, pointed out that the international financial crisis has exposed the defects and shortcomings of the current international monetary and financial systems. The BRIC countries support the reform and improvement of the international monetary system and establish a stable, reliable and broad-based international reserve currency system.

The BRICs countries also welcome the current discussion on the role of special drawing rights in the current international monetary system, including the composition of a basket of currencies with special drawing rights.

Analysts believe that in the long run, overseas investors will continue to diversify their foreign exchange assets, but this can not be an overnight process.

It is interesting that Kaoru Yosano, the second largest creditor of the United States, and Japan's economic and financial secretary, came to the United States on Tuesday, after a day after the S & P laid hands on the US.

Kaoru Yosano said that for Japan, US Treasury bonds are still an attractive investment tool, and a large number of investors from all over the world still want to buy US Treasury bonds.

In the short term, analysts say that the slow bear trend of the US dollar is likely to continue to enhance the attractiveness of alternative commodities such as commodities.

Mai Jiahua, a doomsday doctor who has consistently criticized the US fiscal discipline and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, said on Monday that investors should strengthen the allocation of assets outside the US dollar, such as gold and silver.