Earthquake Shook Japan'S Car Dealer Status &Nbsp; TOYOTA Global Leader Position Or Not Guaranteed

　　 Japan Major auto makers released data on the 25 day, resulting in a sharp drop in output in March. Analysts expect Japanese car dealers' competitors to seize market share. Toyota The global leading position of motor companies may not be guaranteed.

Japan's March 11th earthquake and tsunami caused inadequate supply of auto parts and power shortages. TOYOTA, Nissan Honda's three largest Japanese car dealers in March reduced domestic vehicle output by 62.7%, 52.4% and 62.9% compared to the same period last year.

TOYOTA exceeded General Motors Corporation in 2008 and became the largest vehicle manufacturer in the world. Reuters quoted analysts as saying that TOYOTA will almost certainly lose its position this year.

TOYOTA, general motors and Volkswagen sold 8 million 420 thousand cars, 8 million 390 thousand cars and 7 million 140 thousand cars last year.

Endo Koji, executive director of Japan's senior research firm, predicts that TOYOTA will sell about 6 million 500 thousand cars this year, and GM will have more than 8 million cars, and Volkswagen is about 7 million vehicles. "Therefore, TOYOTA is likely to rank third, and GM will be number one," he said.

Other analysts expect TOYOTA to sell between 6 million 300 thousand and 7 million cars.

The S & P Rating firm on the 25 day reduced the rating outlook of the 3 major Japanese car dealers and 3 major parts suppliers from "stability" to "negative".

Standard & Poor's expects that these enterprises will deteriorate in 2011 financial year. In addition, in the long run, "continued cuts in production may reduce the market share of Japanese car dealers and damage competitiveness".

However, standard & Poor's did not lower the ratings of these enterprises because the impact of the earthquake on car dealers was lighter than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Demand for cars in North America and emerging markets is expected to remain strong, and car dealers may increase production in the second half of this year.

Honda Corporation said on the 25 th that it is expected that the normal production will resume at the end of the year. TOYOTA released a similar timetable last week.

Standard & Poor's expects supply shortages will end almost July. However, due to the continued power shortage and the need for parts to reach overseas factories, the capacity of Japanese car dealers will be fully restored or nearly fully restored in October.

Analysts predict that in the two important markets of North America and Japan, Japanese car dealers will face challenges from us and Korean competitors.

Zhang Yu, executive director of A utom otive Foresight, believes that in the North American market, general motors, Ford motor and Hyundai Motor Company will be the biggest winners, because they may have more advantages than Japanese car dealers in finding new supply sources for parts.

David Whiston, an analyst with Morning Star Inc in the US, predicts that GM and Ford are ready to increase their output and expand their share to further challenge the dominance of Japanese car dealers in the North American small car market.

Korean analyst Xu Chengwen said that in the Japanese market, the Korean Kia Motor Co and Hyundai Motor will be the biggest beneficiaries. The stock prices of Hyundai and KIA rose by 5.6% and 3.2% respectively on the 25 day, all of which were new highs.

"Korean car dealers will have a good day," said Pu Junmin, fund manager of Holland international group. "They will expand their market share and increase their productivity, while reducing incentives to reduce costs."