RMB To The U.S. Dollar Broke Even "Five Passes" High

28 days,

The central parity rate of RMB against other currencies is 1 yuan to RMB 9.6445 yuan, 100 yen to RMB 7.9311 yuan, 1 Hong Kong dollars to RMB 0.83725 yuan, 1 pounds to RMB 10.8518 yuan, 1 yuan to 0.45538 ringgit, RMB 1 yuan to 1 Russian ruble.

Since April this year, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has broken through 6.55, 6.54, 6.53, 6.52, and 6.51 five integer points, which has been rare since the resumption of the exchange rate reform, and the pace of appreciation has accelerated significantly.

Due to the influence of holiday factors in the overseas market, the exchange rate of the RMB spot market has fluctuated sharply since this week, and it was on the market late Monday.

Accelerated appreciation of the US dollar

Driven by the strong middle price yesterday, the yuan ended up 6.5112 against the US dollar in the inquiry trading system, up 175 basis points from the previous trading day.

Yesterday, the focus of the market is still concentrated on the 27 day local time announced the results of the Fed interest conference.

Although the US dollar index yesterday launched a rebound in the European session, there was a significant lack of momentum. At the time of the press release, the US dollar index continued to narrow and report 73.73 points.

The market expects that the second round of quantitative easing in the US will end in June this year, while the third round of quantitative easing is a small probability event. However, the current low interest rate will encourage investors to buy assets that are higher than the US Treasury bonds, and the result of the Fed meeting will not support the future trend of the US dollar, and China's inflation pressure will still be strong in the short term.

There are also rumors in the market that the appreciation of the renminbi will be alleviated by a one-time appreciation.

The real effective exchange rate of RMB will not rise or fall.

Although the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar accelerated in April this year, it did not synchronize sharply with the whole basket of currencies.

According to the statistics of reporters, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has reached 1.71% this year.

But as of yesterday, the RMB depreciated to 8.47% against the euro exchange rate and 5.17% against the pound.

In fact, although the central parity of RMB against the US dollar increased by 0.29% in March this year, the effective exchange rate of the renminbi continued to fall.

According to the latest data released by the Bank of International Settlements (BIS), the effective exchange rate of the RMB was 117.69 in March and 2.56% in the annulus.

In the same period, the RMB effective exchange rate index was 112.42, down 0.71%.

"Effective exchange rate is actually a basket of exchange rates."

Lu Qianjin, an associate professor of international finance at Fudan University, said that according to his calculations, the trend of the effective exchange rate index in April was still falling. As of yesterday, its core exchange rate index was about 1% lower than that at the end of 3.

Judging from the current situation, despite the continued appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar, the depreciation rate of the US dollar index is larger than that of the renminbi against the US dollar.