Limit Electricity Or Induce Oil Shortage &Nbsp; Refined Oil Pricing Mechanism Has Been Criticized Again.

In the fourth quarter of last year,

Phenomenon: power restriction measures everywhere

In an interview with reporters, a private Petrochemical Industries Co manager of Zhejiang Jiaxing (alias) Li Ping face helpless.

"Other places in Zhejiang dare not say, at least in Jiaxing, most chemical plants have recently received a document on the site, which gives us two choices: one is to open seven stops seven", that is, to open seven days to stop for seven days, and the other is to open ten stops ten ", and it can not exceed the limit."

Li Ping said.

The power failure has great impact on the normal production and operation of enterprises.

Take Li Ping's petrochemical plant as an example, its products mainly include industrial solvent oil, lubricating oil, fuel oil for furnace and so on. Some of the separation devices in the factory need to be heated for two or three days before they can run normally, and parking needs one or two days in advance to completely stop.

"Even if we open the ten stop ten", our device will start producing products in fourth days, but it will soon have to cool down and stop for sixth days, and only two or three days for normal production.

Li Ping said.

In other parts of the world, similar power rationing measures are also being staged.

Take another industrial city, Dongguan, Guangdong, for example, local authorities predict that the power supply situation in Dongguan will be very severe before late June, and the maximum load gap will reach 1 million 200 thousand kilowatts.

It is estimated that industrial users of most towns and townships will implement the "six stop one" or "open five stop two" peak shifting plan in different time periods. In the most serious cases, the local users of 21 towns in Dongguan need to execute the "off four stop three" scheme in a certain period of time.

"In fact, power rationing every year, but this year, such a severe power restriction seems to come too early."

Li Ping said.

Reporters then learned from people familiar with the matter that at present, the relevant officials of the State Energy Bureau are going to study in North China, East China, Hua Zhonghe, Southern China and other regions. It is expected that in the two quarter and the three quarter of this year there will be tension in some areas.

According to the experience of the fourth quarter of last year, "power shortage" may trigger a new round of "oil shortage", which has become the most worrying scene of all parties.

Anticipation: tight or premature arrival of gasoline and diesel oil

Prior to that, Liu Tienan, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission and director of the state energy administration, has publicly declared that "no restriction on residential electricity consumption should be allowed."

But even so, once the tight supply of gasoline and diesel is increased by electricity shortage, it is hard to say that residents' lives will not be affected.

"Electricity shortage" will indeed become an inducement of "oil shortage".

Liao Na told our reporter that although the NDRC had slightly raised the electricity price recently, it seems that the effect is not very obvious, and the tense situation of coal and electricity still exists.

In fact, the "diesel shortage" in the fourth quarter of last year was triggered by the power restriction of the sluice gate.

In order to achieve the goal of energy conservation and emission reduction at the end of 11th Five-Year, many places began to impose mandatory power restriction on some enterprises in September last year. For example, if some enterprises in Wenzhou start work for 1 days, they will have to cut power for 2 to 4 days. Since August 26th, Yiwu has implemented the policy of industrial electricity supply for two days in one quarter of the whole city.

Some companies do not delay production to generate electricity by their own diesel engines, which makes the demand for diesel in the market soar.

"This summer does not rule out the possibility that diesel and diesel will be tight again."

Dong Xiucheng, director of the China Petroleum and gas industry development research center of China University of Petroleum, is not worried about this.

Liao Na, chief consultant of energy energy consulting, said that international oil prices will be the most critical factor for the outbreak of oil shortage. "If oil prices are further increased, one will suppress the enthusiasm of the refineries to start their operations. Two, the two largest oil groups will be able to import even though they will import.

More importantly, high oil prices will encourage private gas stations to hang up "no war cards", which will directly convey the information of "oil shortage" to the market.

Reporters learned that, due to strong expectations of rising prices, social units have begun to raise oil prices.

On the other hand, Liao Na believes that the reduction of refining profits will affect the enthusiasm of refineries, which will also lead to tight supply of refined oil products.

An important manifestation of the decline in refinery enthusiasm is the sudden increase in parking facilities in local refineries.

According to a statistics from China chemical network, the local refineries that stop and overhaul include Shandong Haihua, Shen Chi refinery, Fuhai petrochemical, Shida science and technology, the Great Wall refinery, CNOOC Dongying petrochemical and so on. Most of them are in the state of overhaul of the whole plant.

"In fact, there is no problem in the current refining capacity of our country, which can fully meet the needs of the market. The key is that the refinery's enthusiasm is not enough, and the lack of enthusiasm is due to oil refining losses."

Dong Xiu said.

Source: pricing mechanism has not yet completely straightened out.

Fundamentally, the loss of refining is due to the fact that the pricing mechanism has not been completely rationalized.

Dong Xiucheng said that the latter is the most fundamental reason for the shortage of oil.

"Taking into account factors such as curbing inflation and social affordability, the domestic refined oil price adjustment has not been adjusted in recent years, and the consequence of this is the further widening of the oil price gap at home and abroad, which in turn leads to a slight profit or even a loss in oil refining."

Dong Xiu said.

He pointed out that in Sinopec, 80% of the crude oil needed to import, resulting in a great pressure downstream.

Earlier, Fu Chengyu, chairman of Sinopec Group, said, "the company now needs to lose 20 US dollars per barrel of oil, but if it is lost, we must guarantee supply as a central enterprise, and the money we lose can be recovered from the sale of other sectors".

Sinopec related people confirmed that the company's refinery start-up load rate has reached 101%.

PetroChina said its refinery plant had a load rate of more than 98.5% for a processing plant.

"More importantly, China has 1 million tons of processing capacity from local refineries, and they do not need to complete their tasks."

Dong Xiucheng said, "this part of the production capacity will affect the overall market supply.

Under the premise that the pricing mechanism has not been straightened out, they will become the main uncertainties. "

According to his introduction, the total production capacity of China's refining industry is currently about 5 billion tons, of which 4 million tons come from the two largest oil group. "This means that if the remaining 1 million tons of local refineries do not work well, even if the two major oil groups are fully powered, they will not be able to meet the market demand."

However, under the premise of refining losses, it is impossible for the refining capacity to be effective.

Reporters learned from Zhuo Chuang information that last week, the loss of imported straight run fuel oil in Shandong refining industry increased sharply.

As of April 21st, the loss of Russian M100 fuel oil in the Russian refining complex was increased to 119.54 yuan / ton, an increase of 23.25 yuan / ton compared with the previous week.

Insiders pointed out that land refining is the third force in addition to PetroChina and Sinopec's foreign refined oil supply. If a large area is shut down, it is bound to aggravate the imbalance of market supply, and the pressure of supply and supply of the two major oil groups will further increase.

In this regard, Liao Na said that the current supply and demand structure of the refined oil market is indeed hidden trouble, but if we take some measures, we can still solve this problem.

In her view, before Sinopec announced that it stopped the export of refined oil products outside Hong Kong and Macao and the control and sale activities of main units in some areas, it was designed to deal with the possible "oil shortage" in the future.

And through the coordination of production and supply, the contradiction can also be alleviated to a certain extent.