Cotton Rebound Is Just Floating Clouds.

Since mid February, due to the large increase in the new year's cotton planting expectation, the low demand of the downstream market and the influence of the national regulation measures, the center of Zheng's cotton period is moving down continuously.

Recently, though

Weak spot market, poor downstream sales

Domestic and foreign cotton futures prices continue to weaken, and domestic spot quotes are also declining.

Wei Qiao, a large domestic textile enterprise with strong pricing power, lowered its purchase price of lint last month for the four time. At present, the purchase price of grade four lint fell to 25000 - 26000 yuan / ton, with a total decrease of 3000 yuan / ton.

Cotton prices downward, cotton sales will increase, but the downstream business is very cautious procurement, purchase intention is not large, cotton enterprises stock almost static volume.

In terms of seed cotton purchase, the cottonseed resources in recent market are relatively small.

Terminal consumption

In the first quarter of 2011, the total retail sales of domestic consumer goods totaled 42922 billion yuan, an increase of 16.3% over the same period last year, and the total retail sales of textile and apparel products increased by 201 billion 400 million yuan, up 22.3% over the same period last year, which is higher than the retail sales of the whole social consumer goods by about 6%.

Meanwhile, China's consumer confidence index was 108 in the first quarter, up eight points from the fourth quarter of last year.

After two consecutive quarters of decline, China's consumer confidence index picked up for the first time in the first quarter of this year, and the recovery was more obvious.

It can be seen that the domestic consumption demand of textile and clothing has basically returned to the average level last year, and the steady and relatively fast growth trend will continue to be maintained.

On the export side, in March, the export volume of China's textile and apparel was 16 billion 569 million US dollars in the month, a 50.6% increase over the same period last year, and the corresponding export volume growth was much lower than that of the export volume. The increase in export prices was the main reason for the expected growth in exports.

Considering the negative impact of rising labor costs and the appreciation of the renminbi this year, the pressure on industry exports to maintain high growth is relatively large.

The global economy is still recovering, but this recovery does not have a solid foundation, but is fragile.

At present, the European debt crisis continues to drag on the European economy, coupled with the continuing turmoil in the international situation, the impact of the oil crisis on the global recovery, and the crisis triggered by the Japanese earthquake. All these risks are threatening the global economic recovery, making China's export prospects uncertain this year.

Technically, in April 28th, the 1109 main contract of Zheng cotton was supported by the 26200 yuan / ton line. The volume increased and the positions increased. The two sides fought fiercely in the 26200 to 26500 yuan / ton area.

At the same time, the 1201 contract was also supported at 23600 yuan / ton.

The long and sustained downtrend and fierce competition have made the market rebound stronger.

But the industrial chain is not finished. The cotton price will probably continue to be explored after a short period of stabilization. The price of cotton futures contract in 2010/2011 will be supported by the 24500 yuan / ton line.