Monetary Policy Triggers Market Fears That Cotton Market Will Break 26000

On Tuesday, the US cotton rose, up from 157.51 in July to 3.06, mainly due to market speculation in the US weather. International commodities are mixed, with the adjustment of oil price and gold price and major agricultural products continue to fall.

The US dollar index has rebounded slightly, but is still relatively low.

On the 4 day, Zheng cotton was on the low side. The 1109 contract reached the highest level of 26595, the lowest 25805, and 26100 of the early stage support. Zheng cotton main 1109 contract finally closed 25830, 665 lower than the closing price of the previous trading day, the settlement price 26185 that day, compared with the previous day settlement price fell 210. Zheng cotton continued to add positions, closing the end of zhengmian overall add 32336 positions; the main contract 1109 contract increased by 27132 hand, 1201 contract Zeng warehouse 5578 hands. Trading volume increased by 321 thousand hands over the previous trading day, with an overall turnover of 1 million 903 thousand. From a technical point of view, the MACD index of the 1109 contract day is down, KDJ is in the oversold zone, and the daily average is in a short order, and it is still in a downward channel, and the overall trend is still weak.

4, domestic lint spot continued to decline. Cotton byproducts The market has been lowered. China's cotton price index (CCIndex328) was 26597 yuan / ton, down 41429 grade cotton to plant average price 25791 yuan / ton, or 13. cottonseed Prices continue to decline, the current domestic average price of 1.49 yuan / Jin, down 0.01 compared with the previous day, the higher price of Shandong cottonseed is stable at 1.52-1.55 yuan / Jin, compared with the previous day, the average price of cotton lint price is 9037, down 235 compared with the previous day, the domestic higher short staple price is 9000 yuan, most of the quotations are around 8000, and the market turnover is not good. Domestic polyester staple fiber is currently at 13420 yuan / ton, down 30, and the domestic average price of viscose staple is 23100 yuan / ton, down 50 compared with the previous day.

On the macro side, the central bank announced the implementation report of China's monetary policy in the first quarter of 2011. It indicated that the next stage should continue to use interest rates and other price control measures to regulate the demand for capital and investment and save the inflation expectations according to the requirements of the development of the situation. Analysts believe that the information disclosed in the central bank report reflects monetary policy will not relax, causing market anxiety. However, judging from the pace of monetary policy adjustment, the central bank mainly raises the deposit reserve rate once a month and raises the benchmark interest rate every two months. After the Ching Ming Festival, interest rates were raised just now. There is little possibility of further interest rate hike in May. It is expected to continue to raise the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points. At the same time, the operation of the open market will be strengthened, and the funds will be returned again. The spot market, because Shandong Wei bridge continues to reduce the purchase price of lint today, 500 yuan, the current level three is 25000 yuan / ton, 4 level is 24300-24700 yuan / ton. Once again aroused panic in the market. At present, some cotton enterprises are willing to hand in cotton, but the reception is not positive. Seed cotton purchase Market, due to the continuous reduction of lint cotton, some cotton hoarding farmers attitude change, sell cotton seed positive, but most cotton processing plants dare not cotton, most of the collection, the current 4 cotton purchase price in 4.5 yuan / kg, according to cotton seed price conversion, cotton purchase cost in the vicinity of 20000, from March to now, the acquisition cost dropped nearly 8000 yuan, and cotton wool spot reduction is basically the same, is close to the state announced temporary storage price, but according to the current acquisition cost, lint spot continues to decline.

Zheng cotton continues to maintain the weakness of the middle line, and suggests that the blank list be kept in a cautious manner. It can try to intervene in the empty list and pay attention to policy changes and the order situation of the Canton Fair.