China'S Trade Growth Is Expected To Slow In The Second Half Of This Year.

China

In May 5th, at the closing ceremony of the Canton Fair, Wen Zhong Liang, deputy director of the Ministry of foreign trade of the Ministry of Commerce, said that China expects the second half of the year.

This expectation is slightly higher than the 10% increase in the internal business estimate at the end of last year.

During the Canton Fair, the market was widely rumored that the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would appreciate at a rate of 10%.

People close to the Ministry of Commerce said that at present, the possibility of two rumors is not large enough. The adjustment in the rumor is too large, which is not in line with the state's commitment to a basically stable foreign trade policy.

He also reminded us that the figures for export growth in the second half of the year are very critical, and that the current growth rate approaching 30% will provide good reasons for those who call for tightening trade policy.

15% growth forecast

According to the statistics of the Canton Fair, the 109 Canton Fair achieved an export turnover of US $36 billion 860 million, an increase of 5.8% over the previous Autumn Fair.

As of May 4th, there were 207103 purchasers, up 3.93% over the previous session, which has set a record for the 101 Canton Fair.

The Canton Fair has been regarded as barometer and weathervane of China's foreign trade. The Spring Fair is considered to reflect China's export situation in the next 6 months.

Liu Jianjun, a spokesman for the Canton Fair, said at the press conference that from the order structure, the short and medium accounts accounted for 90% of the 6 months' time, and the long-term orders accounted for 10%.

The index of order structure has been included in the statistics of Canton Fair turnover since the financial crisis. The proportion of short and medium term orders in recent sessions has been maintained at around 9.

Liu Jianjun's order pattern is mainly due to the cautious mentality of buyers and exporters. Buyers are worried about the external market demand, and exporters are worried about the successive adjustment of policy adjustments and raw materials.

In fact, many analysts generally lock this year's foreign trade growth zone at 15%-20%.

Although trade figures in the first quarter showed a deficit, the growth rate of China's trade still reached 29.5%, of which exports increased by 26.5%.

Zhou Shijian, an expert on international trade, analyzed that the current export growth rate of more than 20% was hard to sustain, taking into account the cardinal number, while China's exports still faced multiple pressures such as exchange rate and price rise of raw materials.

Two rumors or become empty

On the eve of May 1, foreign exchange traders began to spread the RMB against the US dollar or a one-time appreciation of 10%, in order to eliminate the pressure of investment capital and the international community.

The news caused a sharp fall in B shares in April 27th.

Although the central bank has reiterated that the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism will be perfected in accordance with the principle of initiative, controllability and gradualism in the first quarter's monetary implementation report, the call for a timely adjustment of the RMB exchange rate has always been there.

Zhang Bin, a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, has said publicly that the 10% appreciation level will not cause too much impact on macroeconomic stability in the near future.

For example, he said that if the renminbi appreciated by 10% at a time, the export price of China would increase by 5% and the total export volume by 3.3%.

He thought such a drop would be acceptable to China.

The foregoing Guangdong provincial Silk Textile Group senior executive said that all orders in the near future have clearly agreed that if the exchange rate fluctuates more than 3% when the final payment is made, the contract will be cancelled and the price will be renegotiated.

"However, when the demand is relatively weak, the possibility of such clauses being implemented is negligible, and a one-time substantial appreciation is absolutely disastrous for export enterprises."

In fact, since the beginning of the revaluation of RMB in the second half of last year, the RMB appreciated by 3.1% against the US dollar in 2010. In April of this year, the RMB went on a small step, and in April it had appreciated by more than 1.5%.

Another rumor in the Canton Fair is that the more than 100 tax code for clothing commodities may be included in the new round of tax rebates, with a range of 5 percentage points down, and the rate of tax rebates will fall from 16% to 11% in the event of a row.

Wang Qianjin, chief analyst of the first textile network, said that if this rumor comes true, it will cause heavy losses to garment exports in the short term.

In 2010, the tax rebate of China's textile and clothing exports reached 210 billion yuan, accounting for about 28.8% of the total export tax rebates in China.

A simple calculation, the tax rebate reduced 5 points, then textile and garment export tax rebate reduced by about 65 billion yuan, equivalent to the textile industry profits 1/3, its impact on the whole industry can be seen.

He said that taking into account the pressure of the government to reduce the surplus, China's foreign trade policy is changing from "export strategy" to "import strategy". The reduction of the export tax rebate rate of large surplus textile and garment is unavoidable in the long run.

But in the short run, there is still pressure for growth in textile and clothing industry. The possibility of sharply lowering the tax rebate rate in the decision-making level is unlikely. "Even if the adjustment is not large enough, we suggest that the adjustment within the year should be controlled at 1 to 2 percentage points, so as to maintain a relatively stable export environment."