Cost Down, Demand Stable, PTA Enterprise Profits Still Guaranteed

　 Since late February, domestic PTA prices have started to fall from high and remain vulnerable to adjustment. Analysis of the industry, although the PTA price has dropped 16%, but PTA The profitability of manufacturers is still good.

In the second half of this year, due to the release of new capacity, the domestic PTA self-sufficiency rate will significantly improve, and the domestic supply gap will be greatly alleviated.

Prices dropped significantly

Since December 2010, the spot price of PTA has risen from 9170 yuan / ton to 11780 yuan / ton in early February this year, or 28%. In February 15th, the PTA1109 contract price hit a new high of 12508 yuan / ton. Just as most people are optimistic that oil prices will rise and PTA prices will continue to record high, the price of PTA will start to fall in late February, and the spot price in May 6th has dropped to 10050 yuan / ton.

A typical PTA industry chain is: crude oil - MX - PX - PTA - polyester chip - polyester staple and polyester filament. From the perspective of industry chain, PTA price is affected by two factors, cost and downstream polyester polyester demand.

From the cost point of view, the decline of raw material PX made PTA lose some of its price support. MDF data show that PX spot The price has fallen from the contract settlement price of 13500 yuan / ton at the end of February to the 12500 yuan / ton contract price in May. From the downstream perspective, in February, textile enterprises suffered from labor shortage during the Spring Festival. The sales of polyester products were not smooth and inventory was difficult to digest, which was also a factor that led to the fall of PTA prices.

Shi Yingfeng, a researcher at Zhuo Chuang information PTA, thinks that Macro economy The policy emphasizes stabilizing prices, especially the foreign exchange control implemented in April 1st this year, which inhibits the influx of hot money, and has a greater impact on speculators such as PTA. Shi Yingfeng said that the current price of PTA is more reasonable, it is expected that the market outlook will be weak and shock pattern, and the speculative factors of pre price rise are too large.

Producers' profits are still guaranteed.

Although the price of PTA has dropped by 16%, the profit of PTA production enterprises is still guaranteed because of the falling price of raw material PX and the supply gap of PTA throughout the whole year and the increasing demand of polyester production in the first half of the year.

At present, the production pressure of PTA industry chain is concentrated in the middle and lower reaches. From the profit margin, the upstream PTA is the highest. The polyester industry in the middle reaches is affected by the willingness of the downstream polyester textile enterprises to take delivery of goods. The inventory pressure is high and the profit margin is second, and the downstream polyester textile enterprises are facing multiple pressures such as monetary policy tightening, energy conservation and emission reduction and RMB appreciation, and the profits are even more modest.

At present, the prosperity of PTA is also evident from the stability of polyester enterprises. China Textile City data show that in the last week of April, the sales of Filament Knitted Fabric surged sharply compared with last week, with a turnover of more than 1020 million yuan, up 5 million 800 thousand meters from the previous week, which is more than doubled over the same period last year, 4 million 100 thousand meters.

Shi Yingfeng said that polyester enterprises generally sign PTA contracts at the beginning of the month, accounting for eight to 90%. By the end of the month, before the settlement price of PTA production enterprises comes out, they will make up to 20% spot, so it will drive the small peak of downstream filament sales at the end of each month.

Wang Chieh, a PTA researcher at the treasure island website, believes that even if the PTA price is hovering at 10000~10500 yuan / ton, the production enterprises still have a gross margin of more than 1000 yuan / ton.

Far East Petrochemical Vice President Ma Xiu Mei endorsed this view. She said that the PTA orders were all long, and polyester enterprises all took contract goods. Although the price of PTA has dropped, the price of raw materials is also falling, and the profits of enterprises are still good.

In addition, the reporter has learned that Yisheng and Far East petrochemical and other PTA producers already have polyester production links. The new PTA capacity is the upstream expansion of the original industrial chain, which can effectively reduce unit energy consumption, and the advantages of cost and scale will also be reflected.

Domestic self-sufficiency rate will be significantly improved.

The main production area and consumption area of PTA in Asia is in Asia. From 2008 to 2010, the consumption of PTA downstream in Asia increased rapidly. As the price of PTA continues to rise, the profitability of manufacturing enterprises has also increased significantly. In 2010, the load rate of the PTA industry reached about 90%.

Reporters learned that the second half of this year to the beginning of next year, the mainland alone will add about 5 million 700 thousand tons of PTA devices, the industry ushered in a new round of production capacity. In addition to Yisheng Petrochemical's 2 million 500 thousand tonnes of expansion capacity to be released in mid year, 120~130 million tons of San Lane will be put into operation from 8 to September, and 2 million tons of Far East Petrochemical will also be released by the end of this year or early next year.

Shi Yingfeng introduced that the total PTA output in China was 12 million tons in 2010, and the import volume was 6 million 250 thousand tons, and the self-sufficiency rate was about 66%. At present, the monthly import volume of PTA is 500 thousand tons, and the import volume is expected to be around 6 million tons in 2011.

Shi Leilei, PTA researcher of JOYOU information, told reporters that in the first half of 2011, when the new production capacity was zero, the installed load rate of PTA production enterprises has risen to 98%, and the domestic self-sufficiency rate has reached 77%.

According to the current capacity expansion rate of polyester and PTA at the same time, it is estimated that 5 million 600 thousand tons of PTA capacity will be released next year, and the domestic supply gap will be greatly alleviated. According to the insiders, the self-sufficiency rate of the PTA industry will reach 80% in the first half of next year, according to the 90% device load.