Experts Say RMB Should Stabilize &Nbsp In Emerging Markets, And Appreciate In Developed Countries.

9, the two round of the third round of Sino US

Since China's resumption of the RMB exchange rate reform process in June last year, the RMB has appreciated more than 5% against the US dollar, and the effective exchange rate of RMB has appreciated by more than 10% against the US dollar in terms of inflation rate.

The Sino US relations research center of Tsinghua University believes that the issue of RMB exchange rate is just like a microcosm, and the topics such as economic and trade relations will become more and more heated.

Zhu Guangyao, Vice Minister of finance, said on Friday that China and the United States share the same understanding of the direction of RMB exchange rate reform. However, the Chinese side insists that the reform goal should be to deepen the mechanism of RMB exchange rate formation, while the US side emphasizes the magnitude of appreciation.

In recent days, Gong Fangxiong, managing director of Morgan chase China, was optimistic at the time of attending a forum that the renminbi would appreciate at least twice the value of the US dollar in 10 years, while the Chinese economy could overtake the US as the world's largest economy in less than 10 years.

At present, China's total economic volume is 5 trillion and 800 billion dollars, and the United States is 14 trillion dollars.

He assumes that if China's gross domestic product (GDP) has an annual growth of 8%, 9 years later, in 2020, China's total economic volume will reach 12 trillion US dollars; the US is now 14 trillion dollars, assuming that the annual growth rate is 3%, and 9 years later it will be 18 trillion dollars, and the total economic volume of China will still be smaller than that of the United States.

But there is another very realistic assumption that the renminbi will double at least twice to the US dollar in the next 9 to 10 years, so that the Chinese economy will surpass the US.

At the same time, he stressed that the appreciation of the renminbi depends on whether China can break through the bottleneck.

Shen Minggao, director and managing director of Citigroup China investment research and analysis department, believes that if the US "strong dollar" goal is achieved by pushing the US dollar to weaken, then the "strong renminbi" road is still long.

He believes that the RMB exchange rate has two reference systems. One is the package of currencies for developed countries, the other is for emerging market currencies. It should consider the appreciation of the currencies of developed countries while maintaining the basic stability of the exchange rate of emerging market currencies.

Micro-blog, deputy director of the Financial Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, pointed out that the price level of about 5% of China will probably continue to the three quarter. The tightening period of inflation control policy will be extended to "overtime".

At the same time, he also said that because of the rapid growth of imports and the increase of import inflation pressure in the first quarter, the RMB exchange rate may also increase significantly.

Insiders say that, objectively speaking, the RMB exchange rate should be based on the real effective exchange rate and cannot be measured by a simple exchange rate against the US dollar. If both sides stand on an objective position, they will not be so tit for tat.

Zhu Guangyao also pointed out that on the issue of RMB exchange rate, China and the United States maintain smooth communication channels.

Under the same direction of reform and different views on specific scope, the two sides can deepen mutual understanding through communication and communication.

As for the impact of RMB appreciation on the capital market, a number of securities companies and agencies recently released a research report, although the overall impact of A shares may not be as good as that year, but the real estate, aviation, banking and other sectors of the positive are recognized.

Huatai Securities believes that in the context of RMB appreciation, real estate stocks deserve to be valued. Once the uncertainty of policy faces is eliminated, valuations will rise.

Therefore, it is expected that the valuation level of the aviation industry will be restored in the short term. CITIC Securities said that the appreciation of the local currency means that the value of banks' holdings of large claims will rise. Compared with other countries' banks, the net assets and liabilities of our banks are relatively high. If the performance or other factors remain unchanged, the appreciation of the renminbi will enhance the asset prices of domestic banks.