The 3 - Year Central Bank Will Start &Nbsp Again; The Market Expects The Probability Of Increasing Interest Rates In The Dragon Boat Festival.

This weekend is coming.

At the same time, as the second issue after the restart, the 3 year issue of the central bank has been issued at 23 billion yuan this week, which has been reduced by more than 40% compared with the previous one.

Insiders pointed out that the current changes in open market operations only mean that the central bank uses quantity regulation to reclaim liquidity rather than the reversal of monetary policy.

See the interest rate window for a small holiday.

"On the whole, the trend of monetary policy tightening has not changed."

Wang Ziqiang, director of the Oriental Asset Investment Division, said in an interview with the daily economic news (micro-blog) that the central bank raised the deposit reserve rate one month in a month and the overall rhythm of interest rates increased every month, but the specific time could not be judged.

This year, the central bank announced the first two increases in interest rates in February 8th and April 5th, respectively, on the last day of the Spring Festival holiday and the Qingming Festival.

Therefore, when the long holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival is about to arrive, the interest rate hike in the market is expected to grow.

E Yongjian, a researcher at Bank of communications Financial Research Center, believes that interest rate hikes in June were very early in the market, and that the CPI forecasts for institutions in May were relatively high.

The latest research report from Huatai Securities shows that CPI is expected to rise by 5.5% in May, up 0.1 percentage points.

Everbright Securities said that CPI inflation will peak in the middle of this year.

"Therefore, we do not rule out the possibility of raising interest rates on Dragon Boat Festival."

E Yongjian said.

Liu Junyu, an analyst at China Merchants Bank, pointed out that the decline of PMI is less than expected, so tightening monetary policy may not relax so quickly.

The latest figures show that in May, the PMI index, the leading indicator of macro-economy, fell back to second months in a row and dropped to a 9 month low of 52%, a 0.9 percentage point lower than the annulus rate.

"In the first half of June and the middle of May, before the announcement of economic data, it is a sensitive period of policy."

He said that the possibility of raising interest rates in June is relatively large.

"Interest rate increase in June is once more acceptable."

Kim Tong, an analyst at CAITONG Securities Research Institute, told the daily economic news.

3 year central bank issued

At the same time, as the second issue after the restart, the 3 year issue of the central bank has been issued at 23 billion yuan this week, which has been reduced by more than 40% compared with the previous one.

Meanwhile, the central bank announced the issuance of central bank bills in March, compared with last week's 1 billion yuan, a substantial increase of 15 billion yuan.

In May 12th, the central bank resumed the issuance of the 3 year central bank's suspension for nearly half a year. After the restart, the initial circulation was 40 billion yuan and the winning rate was 3.80%.

It was not released again due to tight liquidity until Monday when the central bank again asked traders to report the demand for the 3 year central bank.

In this regard, insiders pointed out that the current changes in open market operations only indicate that the central bank uses quantity regulation to recover liquidity rather than the reversal of monetary policy.

"The changes in the issuance of central banks are only aimed at the fine-tuning of the capital market in the inter-bank market, and monetary policy has not changed."

Wang Ziqiang told the daily economic news.

Data show that Wednesday (June 1st) the financial market in the interbank market did not suddenly relax as expected.

Short term interest rate wind vane - 7 day pledge repo weighted average interest rate closed 3.91%, up 6 basis points from the previous closing, and overnight varieties fell 72 basis points to 3.16%.

Market traders said the drop in overnight repo rate was eliminated by the end of the month, while the 7 day repo rate rose slightly, due to the weekend holiday.

"Overall, the liquidity at the beginning of the month is not as loose as it imagined."

A trader in Shanghai said.

For future funds, the industry said that although the funds expended in June exceeded 600 billion yuan, it is expected that the new foreign exchange will also remain at around 300 billion yuan, so the banking system liquidity in the short term will still be sufficient, but the future monetary policy will still be tightened up.

Analysts at Huatai United Securities believe that, considering that the funds expended in the open market in July are below 300 billion yuan, the funds expended in August and September in two months are only about 200 billion yuan, so the necessity and feasibility of the central bank's open market operation across the month and across the season are larger.

"It is estimated that in June the central bank will take the initiative to increase the scale of the open market operation, and at the same time, because inflation is expected to hit a new high, the central bank may make policy choices between raising interest rates and raising the reserve ratio. The possibility of raising interest rates should be higher than" once again ".

The analysts pointed out that there is limited space to raise the deposit reserve rate during the year, and the open market operation will also focus on net investment.