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High Cotton Prices Stimulate Global Cotton Acreage Increase

2011/6/3 17:37:00 79

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Although cotton prices plummeted in the past two months to 24 thousand yuan / ton, compared to the 10 year average of 14 thousand yuan, it remained high.

High cotton prices have attracted a larger area of the world, and cotton stocks will rise rapidly in the next two years.

Cotton prices rose all the way up to a record high of 35 thousand yuan in February this year, but after the crazy rise,

Cotton price

Turn down.

Since April, domestic cotton prices have fallen rapidly on average on average of 500 yuan / ton per 3 days.

In less than two months, cotton prices fell back to 24 thousand yuan / ton, or nearly 3.

Even so, the annual average cotton price of cotton is still far higher than the average of 10 years.

High cotton prices have attracted more planting areas.

The latest survey released by China Cotton Association in June 2nd showed that China's cotton planting area in 2011 is expected to increase by 6.6% over the same period last year.

According to the survey results, it is estimated that the cotton planting area in 2011 will be 82 million 80 thousand mu, which will increase by 6.6% compared with the previous year.

China Cotton Association said that because of the high level of purchase price this year, and the state's introduction of cotton temporary storage and storage plan, the cotton farmers' sowing area increased year by year.

However, due to the unfavorable weather conditions in some areas and the fall in cotton prices, cotton farmers' enthusiasm for planting cotton has been frustrated, and there is still some uncertainty in the area of pplanting.

Earlier, the cotton storage information center survey report showed that China's cotton planting area increased by 6.2% in 2011, down 0.6 percentage points from the December 2010 survey.

The growth area of domestic growth has increased the anticipation of increasing market supply and pushed prices down.

At present, the domestic cotton grade 328 spot index is around 24500 yuan / ton, and

Goods in stock

The range of discount has been expanded to 1740 yuan / ton.

However, the import price of imported cotton in the same period was 30400 yuan / ton -30700 yuan / ton, still significantly higher than the domestic cotton spot price.

The main reason for the strong external support is that the main cotton producing area in Texas is experiencing a historic drought. Its new cotton planting is significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The cotton output in the new season is still uncertain, but the pace of cotton planting in the United States is equivalent to that in the same period of history.

On the global scale, farmers' willingness to grow cotton is also rising sharply, pushing up the potential output of cotton.

According to the latest forecast of the International Cotton Advisory Committee (ICAC), the global cotton inventory will rebound in 2011/2012, because the output will be 1 million 600 thousand tons more than that of the global textile mill.

"The cotton planting area in the global 2011/2012 will grow by 8% to 36 million 300 thousand hectares, and the output is expected to increase by 9%."

The report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee is expected.

The report also said that the global cotton mill consumption in 2011/2012 is expected to increase, benefiting from global economic growth.

But the price is high and comes from.

chemical fiber

Competition in the field will curb consumption growth.

According to the report of the International Cotton Advisory Committee, by the end of July 2012, the year-end inventory of global cotton is expected to increase to 10 million 200 thousand tons, and the inventory consumption will rebound to 40% over the same period.

The inventory consumption ratio is the ratio between the end inventory and the current consumption. That is, the inventory consumption ratio = the inventory / current consumption at the end of this period is an indicator of the safety level of grain and other crops put forward by the United Nations Food and agriculture organization.

The report predicts that the Cotlook A index is expected to fall sharply in 2011/2012, and the price fluctuation will also be leveling off. However, the average index will still be higher than the 10 year average of 60 cents per pound.