In May, CPI Expects To Grow &Nbsp, And The Market Is Expected To Raise Interest Rates This Weekend.

In June 14th, the National Bureau of statistics will publish the May economic data, which will include CPI Important economic data, including investment and consumption, will be disclosed. In June 10th, the General Administration of Customs will issue import and export data for May. According to convention, the central bank will also announce the financial data of last month after 12 days a month.

Although the PMI data released in May showed that the sub indices were all down. Inflationary pressure But the agencies are still more fearful of the CPI data in May. The average forecast of the 25 organizations in WIND is 5.4%, and many agencies expect CPI to reach 5.5% and refresh the 34 month high. Analysts expect that the central bank will raise interest rates by 25 basis points this weekend, and will raise the deposit reserve ratio by 50 basis points after the next week's data release.

Economists believe that due to the sharp fall in the amount of funds expired in the open market in the second half of the year, the reserve ratio was once a month. Adjust rhythm Will obviously slow down. But there are some differences between the institutions in terms of the intensity of interest rate instruments. Some agencies believe that in the 6 and July interest rates 1 times, the follow-up policy will be more flexible. However, some agencies expect that CPI will exceed 6% in June, and will raise interest rates once again in the 3 quarter after raising 25 basis points in June.

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CPI or higher interest rate increases

"Affected by the drought in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, the price of edible agricultural products began to end slightly down in May, and returned to a slight rise. At the same time, the price of non food is still high. We initially judged that the CPI growth in May would be 5.5%, creating a new high in the year. " Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at the Bank of Jin Research Center, told reporters in an interview with the economic reference daily.

Galaxy Securities predicts that the tail factor is about 5.4 in May. It is estimated that the new price increase factor will remain stable in May, so CPI will increase by 5.4 percentage points in May. Taking into account that it is difficult to make accurate estimates of the new factors of non food price increase, and taking into account the possible errors of statistical data from the Bureau of statistics and other departments, it is estimated that the range of new factors will range from -0.1 to 0.1 percentage points, so that the fluctuation interval of CPI will be 5.3% to 5.5%.

Pan Xiangdong, chief economist of galaxy securities, said that because of the cumulative effects of the policy and the seasonal factors of food prices, the CPI ratio has begun to fall. It is estimated that the two quarter, the economic growth ratio and the price chain ratio will fall back. However, due to the influence of the tail factor, the growth of GDP and the CPI year-on-year change will not appear. It is estimated that the C PI of the two quarter will remain between 5 and 5.5 in the whole quarter.

Bank Securities determine that price movements will show a trend of "high before and after low" throughout the year. Under the condition of constant policy, with the decline in the two quarter growth rate, the impact of the three quarter's tail factor on CPI will show up, which will slow down the growth rate of CPI in the third quarter. It is estimated that the growth rate of CPI will decrease to 4.5 to 5 left and right in the three quarter. In the four quarter, although the impact of the tail end will continue the weak trend in the three quarter, but due to the rebound in the new price increase factor, and because of seasonal factors in the second half of the year will boost the real CPI operation effect, the fourth quarter CPI will remain high in the same period.