Will Cotton Repeat The Mistakes Of Cotton In 2003?

There have been many amazing acquaintances in history, separated for seven years. cotton Once again, there was no smoke war.

Look back on cotton from spring to now. Price Trend: just after the Spring Festival, cotton futures prices surged under the influence of the periphery, approaching 34500 yuan per ton, until the end of the month, they only slowed down to 30000 yuan / ton until the end of the month. Until now, the rational return to 28000 yuan / ton, but cotton spot. market Not keen on pursuing it, the small Yang rejuvenation after the first fifteen months of the year is quite different this year. Textile mills see more goods and less turnover. Ask: the price is high, the labor cost is rising, the RMB exchange rate rises every day, the textile enterprises dare not pick up the big bills, only keep the small and medium-sized products to maintain their vitality, and hope that the downstream products will continue to rise in price. However, the downstream products are dyspepsia. Most of the textile products have not crossed the red line in the first half of this year, and this has caused problems in the textile industry chain. The expectations of cotton enterprises have been hot in their minds for months. Most of them think that cotton is so much higher than real estate cotton. The textile mills do not have food. The cotton enterprises in their hands are hoarding, playing the game of cats always consuming rats. In the early March, cotton futures and matching cotton prices increased 30000 yuan / ton ~34000 yuan / ton arbitrage.

3.11 after the Japanese earthquake, the Chinese seem to have lost their bearings. Most of them think that the national cotton store has not played in the first half of this year. Now it is my view. The cotton price will rise. The 3 grade lint of the public inspection is below 30 thousand yuan / ton. When I was doing research in the cotton belt along the Yangtze River in mid March, I found that at least 600 tons or more of small factories were at least 80 tons. However, there were unexpected events. The escalation of nuclear accidents in Japan and the escalation of the Libya war led to an increase in international oil and gold prices. China's inflation rate was further increased. Many textile mills had to take measures such as shutting down production, limiting production and pressing down, and switching production to avoid a new round of high oil price and high cotton price risk. Those who have experienced the baptism of cotton in 2003 will never forget: a sharp drop in inflation. Will cotton in the first half of this year be a replica of the cotton slump in the first half of 2004? Textile enterprises holding the plan for temporary storage and purchase in 2011 issued by the development and Reform Commission seems to have seen a glimmer of dawn. National policies are protecting two sides (protecting the interests of cotton farmers and protecting textile exports), and pressing the middle (cotton purchasing processing enterprises). This invisible big net is firmly regulating the cotton price in the affordable range, and no one can resist it.

When the tide hits the sand, who will make quick gains, who will get away with it. Instead, he will only wait and struggle and groan. I would like to advise one more thing: the cotton enterprises who are ready to make further efforts after July are waiting for nothing. But do not want to see the 2003 cotton tragedy in China's cotton enterprises replay.