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    The Central Bank Restarted 100 Billion Repo &Nbsp; The Proposed Rate Hike Is Still Expected.

    2011/6/8 17:05:00 54

    Financial Institutions Expect Interest Rate Increase

    The increase rate "boots" did not fall on the Dragon Boat Festival as the market expected, but it was a three day 28 day repo repurchase.

    Industry experts predict that in the case of the decline in the attractiveness of the central bank's institutions, the repurchase will take on the role of capital withdrawal.

    The possibility of 91 day repo operation restart is also great.

    Although the repurchase has taken on the role of capital withdrawal, the monthly increase in the deposit reserve rate this year is likely to be achieved in June, and the aim will still be to hedge foreign exchange reserves which are very high.


    The central bank announced on the 7 day that the 2 billion yuan RMB 1 year central bank issued in the open market has been reduced by 1 billion yuan compared with the previous period, and the winning rate has remained unchanged for 3.3058% weeks for tenth weeks.


    On the same day, the central bank resumed the 28 day repo operation for three weeks in the open market, with a trading volume of 100 billion yuan, and the winning rate remained 2.6%.

    The central bank last 28 days of repo in May 17th, the amount of operation is 3 billion yuan.


    For the 28 day repurchase of the volume of the operation, the general public in the industry is to cope with the expired funds.

    The lack of demand for central bank makes it necessary for central banks to refinance funds through repo operations.


    Statistics show that this week, the central bank will expire 74 billion yuan, and the repurchase will expire 152 billion yuan, with a total maturity of 226 billion yuan.

    Previously, the central bank has invested three consecutive weeks, totaling 207 billion yuan.

    According to this calculation, if Thursday

    Central Bank

    Open market 3 months of central bank votes and 91 weather repo does not exceed 124 billion yuan, the open market will achieve net consecutive weeks.


    A trader in a city commercial bank said that because of the strong expectation of tightening policy, it is not the best time to buy central bank in the primary market, and the demand for the central bank is weakened accordingly.

    The central bank now restarts the repo operation, which can expire the maturity.

    capital

    Later, it can also meet the needs of financial institutions.


    The traders said that the central bank is still trying to keep the price of funds stable from the issue scale of the 1 year central bank.

    In this way, the circulation of 3 month central bank tickets on Thursday should also be limited, but the possibility of a 91 day repo operation is also very large.


    In addition, the central bank issued a reaffirming in June 3rd that it needs to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy this year.

    Economics

    Support.


    Analysts pointed out that, from the statement made by the central bank in the China financial stability report (2011) in June 3rd, the stable tone of monetary policy will not change, and the financial support for the economy should be measured from the perspective of total social financing.

    This means that traditional credit will no longer be relied on, and the share of the stock and bond market will continue to expand.

    Under the pressure of monetary tightening and financing, the overall valuation of the stock market will be suppressed.


    Many industry experts including the chief economist of the Industrial Bank of China (601166, stock bar), Lu Zheng commissar, expect that the probability of raising the deposit reserve ratio in June is very great. However, interest rate rises need to be clear after the announcement of the economic and financial data.

    The current situation is that everyone is waiting for austerity policy "boots" landing, boots do not fall, the market will be disturbed in the operation.


    According to the schedule issued by the National Bureau of statistics, the national economic performance will be released on June 14th (Tuesday), and the macroeconomic data such as CPI and fixed asset investment will be clear in May.

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