Increase Interest Again "Knock" &Nbsp; Policy Toward Delicate

In defense

Entering the May, the price operation has changed.

Since the middle of the 20th century, prices of vegetables and pork have increased significantly, and seasonal prices of aquatic products and eggs have exceeded the same level in the same period of history.

Besides,

A number of agencies predict that CPI will maintain a high level of year-on-year growth in May and may hit a new high in the year.

If the policy measures taken by the central bank in the past year after the CPI were higher than the previous year, it is not difficult to deduce the interest rate increase.

However, some market participants believe that raising interest rates will not help curb price rises caused by rising food prices.

However, some market participants say that the importance of raising interest rates is to prevent price inflation from being pmitted to other fields in the food field.

At the same time, inflationary pressures are increasing.

Due to the high factor in June, this factor will promote the increase of CPI in June.

If the rise in non food prices in June had not been well suppressed or the price of food had returned to an anti seasonal trend, CPI could have gone up year after year.

Even some agencies predict that the CPI will increase by 6% in June.

In addition to the rising CPI, asset prices are rising, mainly in high prices, and rents and other rents have been pushing up market inflation expectations.

In the long run, the driving factors of price rise include: International importation of inflation factors persisting; price increases and inflation expectations brought about by resource price reform; rising labor costs, imperfect market circulation mechanism, and unreasonable tax and fee system.

The improvement of these factors depends on the changes of the external environment, and some need to push forward the corresponding reform.

Even if the domestic economy slows down and the other conditions are not considered, these inflation factors will persist for a long time.

Under such circumstances, inflation prevention is still the primary task of macroeconomic regulation. This policy keynote will not change in the short term.

In recent years, the interest rate liberalization of the banking system has actually reflected its revision of the capital price.

Since the beginning of this year, the phenomenon of "capital disintermediation" has been remarkable.

The bank actively raised the rate of return on financial products and deposit interest rate, reflecting the upward trend of its capital cost.

Monetary policy should respond to this.

Without raising interest rates, more funds will be left outside the scope of supervision as a form of "shadow banking".

On the one hand, it will increase the difficulty of monetary policy regulation. On the other hand, it may also bring new financial security risks.

However, as China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) hit a 9 month low in May, concerns about the slowdown in the domestic economy are increasing. More attention should be paid to regulation.

Recently, the problems of financing at the enterprise level emerge in an endless stream, and the real economy faces many pressures.

In addition, a series of poor economic data released by the United States has cast a shadow over the global economic recovery in the second half of the year.

On the whole, after a more stringent monetary tightening, if the price rises in the second half of the year are curbed, regulation and control need to be more cautious.

The current regulation and control should pay more attention to foresight and anticipation, avoid the superposition of unfavorable factors at home and abroad in the second half of the year, and bring about "overshoot".

In recent weeks, the central bank's continuous net investment has shown that regulation has paid more attention to rhythm and intensity.

Analysts believe that the May and June CPI year-on-year increase will lead to the central bank to continue to raise interest rates.

As for June, the central bank may choose to raise interest rates asymmetrically because of the slowdown in economic growth.

In addition, in view of changes in the liquidity of the banking system, the possibility of continuing to raise the deposit reserve ratio in June is not ruled out.