CPI Growth Will Reach 7% In The Future.

The people's Bank of China announced on the 14 day that it has decided to raise the benchmark interest rate for Renminbi deposits and loans of financial institutions since September 15th.

The one-year deposit benchmark interest rate of financial institutions increased by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 3.60% to 3.87%; the one-year lending benchmark rate rose 0.27 percentage points from the current 7.02% to 7.29%.

The interest rate of individual housing provident fund has increased by 0.18 percentage points accordingly.

This will be the Fifth Central Bank's interest rate hike this year.

We should strengthen monetary and credit regulation, guide investment growth and stabilize inflation expectations. This is the keynote of the central bank's five interest rate hike this year.

The reporter interviewed Liang Hong, chief economist of Goldman Sachs and Xie Guozhong, an independent economist. Both of them believe that the current rate increase is still moderate.

Liang Hong, chief economist of Goldman Sachs, pointed out in the research report sent to this newspaper that the increase in interest rate, especially the 50 base points that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio in September 6th and the direct issuing of RMB 150 billion yuan to the commercial banks, indicated the central bank's determination to curb inflationary pressure.

In addition, the interest rate hike was only a month away from the last interest rate increase in August 21st, indicating that the government is more willing to use market-based tools to regulate the economy.

Mr Liang expects that the monetary regulatory authorities will introduce further tightening measures, such as raising interest rates by 27 basis points again, and actively returning liquidity (possibly by further raising the deposit reserve ratio) and increasing the "moral persuasion" of commercial banks in order to curb lending.

Xie Guozhong, an independent economist, has always believed that the adjustment of interest rates is rather small.

He compared China's interest rate level with the growth rate of GDP and the United States, pointing out that China's GDP development rate is several times that of the United States, and the interest rate level is quite low.

Although interest rates have been raised for five consecutive times this year, the domestic real interest rate remains negative.

Xie Guozhong: interest rate is very important. For the current economic situation, Liang Hong believes that CPI growth still has upward risk. The possibility that CPI growth will reach 7% or higher in the next few months is very great.

Xie Guozhong said in an interview with reporters earlier that China has entered the era of total inflation, though many people do not recognize it.

In the report, Mr Liang also pointed out that there is no need to debate whether inflation is a problem. The central bank should pay attention to the overall inflation in the food sector.

Mr Liang pointed out that in addition to a modest increase in interest rates, the rapid appreciation of the renminbi is a policy option with multiple gains.

The reason is that it helps to reduce China's trade surplus, allow more room for domestic demand growth, and reduce price inflation of imported products.

"If the renminbi appreciates by 10%, the prices of imported oil, soybeans and pork will drop 10% rapidly."

She explained with data.

Xie Guozhong stressed that the problem of inflation and excess liquidity can not be alleviated only through a small adjustment. We must achieve the goal through a substantial increase in interest rates and other financial means, and the interest rate is very important.

Liu Chunxiang's real interest rate is still likely to increase again in the negative year. Central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan has made clear that the central bank is paying close attention to the problem of negative interest rate, and hopes to see the real interest rate positive.

This means that the current real interest rate is still negative.

Generally speaking, the real interest rate is equal to the after tax deposit rate minus the inflation rate.

But how do we measure inflation?

The simplest and simplest way is to get the CPI data released by the Census Bureau monthly.

The benchmark deposit interest rate for the first year of this year is 2.52%, after tax is about 2%, and the CPI in January is 2.2%, so the real interest rate is -0.2%.

Of course, this algorithm is very unscientific and reasonable.

Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said in an interview that there are many ways to measure real interest rates.

But it can not be calculated by the inflation rate of a single month.

Usually it is measured in the past 6 months or 12 months.

This shows that the central bank attaches importance to long-term trends rather than short-term fluctuations.

Yi Xianrong, a researcher at the Financial Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, believes that the central bank may have further measures to increase interest rates in the future.

This view is endorsed by many people in the industry.

Goldman Sachs reports that monetary tightening authorities will introduce further tightening measures, such as raising interest rates by 27 basis points again.

Wang Zhihao, a senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank, also believes that there will be a 0.27 percentage point increase in interest rates by the end of this year.

Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the state information center, predicts that inflation will be 4.3% this year and may increase interest rates one or two times.

According to the Beijing Youth Daily, focusing on the property market, the trend of the property market warming is not changing. Reporters have learned that many people in the industry believe that the continued interest rate increase will not hurt residents' enthusiasm for buying houses, but the mortgage pressure of some low-income people will be further increased.

A survey of interest rates raised by the central bank on the SouFun shows that 67.07% of the netizens thought that interest rates would be raised again within 20 hours as of yesterday. 82.97% of netizens believed that the current round of interest rate increases had the greatest impact on mortgage buyers, and 12.84% of netizens believed that developers would have an impact on developers.

51.48% of netizens think that raising interest rates will increase house prices, 31.72% of netizens think that no impact on housing prices; 56.8% of netizens believe that the increase in interest rates will increase the amount of repayment, and 67.86% of netizens believe that if interest rates are raised again, the affordability will be "enough".

Min Yifei, manager of marketing department of Shanghai desert island real estate studio, said that the interest rate increase would not change the trend of the property market. The proportion of the down payment of some buyers would be further increased. Some buyers would postpone the purchase so as to save the first payment.

However, the interest rate hike has limited impact on the current property market, holding "buying early and buying early rather than buying early".

Yang Hongxu, a real estate professional in Shanghai, said the interest rate increase would still not affect the "enthusiasm" of the vast majority of home buyers.

In the context of the prosperity of the property market, the high CPI and the rapid increase of the house prices, any single interest rate increase will not have a significant impact on the market, but it will make the market change obviously when the accumulation is to a certain extent.

On the one hand, it will have a slightly greater impact on the low income, especially those who live on their own.

And it has little impact on the purpose of investment speculation, because its profit margin is still large.

From a developer's point of view, increasing interest means increasing the financing cost of developers, increasing the burden of loans, and narrowing the profit margins. Some experts believe that the annual loan 10 billion of the developer's loan is an example. After the loan interest rate is increased by 0.27 percentage points, the developer will increase the repayment amount by 27 million a year.

Yang Hongxu said that there is no impact on the financing channels of diversified property enterprises, and too many developers rely on bank loans, especially SMEs.

Yang Yan, as far as possible, does not need to borrow money from commercial loans. Although frequent interest rate increases aim at strengthening monetary and credit regulation, the rising interest rate on mortgage loans does raise the cost of loans.

Financial advisers suggest that conditional buyers should choose to use housing accumulation fund loans as much as possible.

Reporters today learned at some bank outlets in Shanghai that many loan buyers now believe that the continuous increase in interest rates has increased the pressure on repayment of loans. Many people have chosen to repay loans ahead of time to reduce the pressure of monthly payments.

According to estimates, with a 200 thousand Yuan period of 20 years (equivalent principal and interest repayment method) housing loans, for example, after this increase in interest rates, the monthly supply will increase by 33 yuan compared with the adjusted interest rate in August 22nd. If it is compared with the same period loan interest rate before the first 6.84% interest rate increase this year, it will be up 0.99 percentage points, and the monthly supply will increase by 120 yuan.

In the interest rate raising channel, although the interest rate of the provident fund loan is also rising, compared with commercial housing loan, the advantage of provident fund mortgage loans is only obvious after raising interest rates.

Take 10 year 150 thousand yuan loan (according to the equal principal and interest repayment) as an example: after raising interest rate, the interest rate of the provident fund loan is 5.22%, while the commercial mortgage interest rate is 7.83%, and the monthly difference between the two months before raising interest rates is 190 yuan.

Moreover, according to the usual practice, the rate of provident fund interest rate increase is smaller than commercial housing loan. After 5 consecutive interest rates this year, the interest rate of the provident fund loan interest and commercial mortgage loan has been widening.

In this regard, the head of the Shenzhen Development Bank's retail banking department believes that in order to better cope with the interest rate increase, first of all, we must take full consideration of interest rates and other factors when choosing the housing credit interest rate.

If you want to lock in the mortgage interest rate, you can choose a fixed interest rate to avoid the risk of raising interest rates.

At the same time, people with short-term repayment ability choose to repay the loan ahead of time in order to reduce the burden of interest.

In particular, young homebuyers should be reminded to make financial planning ahead of time when arranging their home equity funds. If they do not do their best, they will overdraft their quality of life ahead of schedule.

Mr Chen is careful that the capital chain can not afford to pay more for ordinary buyers.

Although the rate of a single visit is not large, it is still moderate.

Take the 500 thousand yuan 15 year mortgage loan as an example, the interest rate increased to 4652.13 yuan in the month before interest rate, and increased to 4729.33 yuan after raising interest rate. Even if calculated by the most favorable interest rate, the monthly supply will increase by 63.3 yuan after the interest rate rises, and it will cost more than 759.6 yuan a year. The whole 15 year period will increase the interest burden of 9115.2 yuan.

For this reason, those who use leveraged effect to loan real estate investors should reconsider their own risk tolerance after entering the interest rate cycle.

At present, the real estate market is flooded with investment demand, many of which have some spare money, but mainly using the leverage of credit, "42 points", two to 30% Shoufu is their own, and seven or eight of the money is bank.

Buying a house is for the sake of selling at a price. Generally, the room will not be longer than one or two years.

Liang Hao, an analyst at Zhongyuan Real estate, reminded that the increase in interest rates would lead to a small monthly burden, but it continued to rise. "It's kind of like a boiled frog". Once investors' capital chain is tight and house prices haven't been able to rise sharply in a short period of time, plus the tax burden of trading links, it is not impossible to lose money.

Therefore, it is time to reassess the risk of real estate, which is not strong enough in capital and high in price.

At present, the property market has entered the peak season, the so-called "golden nine silver ten".

Demand for further release, tight supply and demand and rising housing prices can hardly be changed by raising interest rates.

But raising interest rates may have an impact on the credit scale.

From 1 to August, investment in fixed assets in cities and towns increased by 26.7% over the same period last year, and investment in real estate development increased by 29%.

The situation of investment in real estate development leading to fixed assets investment in cities may be eased due to tighter credit.

Xinhua News Agency found that after the interest rate hike, some banks in the Hushang part of the bank appeared a queuing phenomenon.

Industry experts remind that if residents blindly turn to deposit, they may lose interest.

Reporter yesterday morning, in the business hall of Zhao Jia Bang Road branch of ICBC, many middle-aged and old customers were queuing up for consultation and deposit pfer business. Some middle-aged and old customers had come to handle the deposit business this time with the central bank raising interest rates this year.

Since then, the reporter has come to the Meilong branch of the Bank of China and the branch of Tianlin branch of the Construction Bank. Although it is already lunchtime, the customers waiting in line for business are still increasing.

In this regard, the bank said that as the central bank raised interest rates on the first day to catch up with the two-day weekend, many branch outlets were closed.

In addition, on the first day of raising interest rates, they met the minimum wage and retirees' payroll day, resulting in a sharp increase in the number of customers.

According to bank financial experts, if every interest rate is pferred, some time deposits will be withdrawn in advance and interest rate will not be reached.