Two-Way Fluctuation Of RMB Against US Dollar Exchange Rate

The four trading day after the long holiday of the Dragon Boat Festival. RMB The central parity of the US dollar after the two consecutive trading days hit a new high of exchange rate reform, which was slightly down by the US dollar rebound.

Analysts expect that in the long run, the trend of RMB exchange rate appreciation is basically determined. However, influenced by the fluctuation of international foreign exchange market, it will show strong two-way floating characteristics.

On the four trading day of the week, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar announced by the China foreign exchange trading center rose two trading days, two trading days down, and the weekly wave amplitude was 58 basis points. The first two trading days after the small dragon boat festival, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar continued to rise on the basis of 6.4846 last Friday, and rose to 6.4816 and 6.4795 respectively, creating a new high since 2005, and breaking the 6.48 pass for the first time on Wednesday. In the next two trading days, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar dropped 58 basis points, and fell to 6.4853 on Friday.

The data released by the General Administration of Customs on Friday showed that China's total accumulated in the first five months of this year. Balance of trade surplus It was $22 billion 970 million, down 35.1% from a year ago. Among them, the trade surplus in May was 13 billion 50 million US dollars, while the surplus increased further than in April, but it was lower than expected.

Analysts pointed out that the growth trend of trade surplus in the past 5 months shows that China's annual trade surplus will decrease overall and China's trade balance will further improve, which will help to reduce the pressure of RMB appreciation. On the other hand, in view of the fact that China's economy will still maintain rapid growth and face strong inflationary pressure, the trend of long-term appreciation of RMB is basically clear. At present, the market environment for the two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate is mature, but there is no basis for substantial appreciation.

In the international market, at the beginning of this week, affected by weak economic data, the US dollar index fell again after a brief rebound in the previous period, and hit a low point in more than a month. But then, as the market worried about the euro zone debt problems and the economic recovery of the euro area countries, and the US budget deficit in May was lower than expected, the euro fell and the US dollar went up. Analysts at the Bank of China pointed out that a series of weak economic data and employment data released recently by the United States consolidated the market's expectation that the US interest rate would remain at a historic low for a longer time. From a comprehensive perspective, the US dollar's medium-term trend is not optimistic, and the US dollar index is expected to continue to decline after a slight rebound.

On the spot market, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar on Thursday and Friday declined for two consecutive days, which did not have a significant impact on the exchange rate, and the transaction range was still higher than the middle price level, indicating that the market was more consistent with the RMB over the long term.

Since the central bank announced the further reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in June 19, 2010, the RMB has appreciated slightly, the two-way floating characteristics are obvious, and the exchange rate elasticity has been significantly enhanced. In the middle price, the appreciation of RMB has exceeded 5% since June 19, 2010. This year alone, the renminbi has appreciated by more than 2%.

In the forward market, 10 nights are used to measure overseas market Compared with the spot exchange rate, the US dollar exchange rate against the renminbi is expected to be 1% to 2% a year, and the appreciation expectation is down.

How to solve the Greek problem and how the European Central Bank faces inflation is the two major theme that affects the euro exchange rate in the near future. From the present point of view, the euro group, the European Union and the International Monetary Fund can basically not ignore Greece, and the rescue is only a matter of time and method. This week's European central bank interest conference intensified the expectation of raising interest rates in July. Analysts believe that all this foreshadowed the euro's future rebound, but still face high uncertainty.

Affected by the trend of the euro, the central parity of RMB against the euro has rebounded slightly after this week's weakness.