Cotton Supply And Demand In The New Year Is Tight And Cotton Prices Look At The Weather.

Ups and downs

Du Min, director of the rural development research center of the rural economic research center of the Ministry of agriculture, said that although the spot price of cotton is falling, the price of agricultural materials is rising.

Under such circumstances, there are many uncertain factors in the market. Fortunately, in March, the state issued a policy of minimum purchasing and storage price, which played an important role in stabilizing the cotton planting area.

For the new year's cotton situation, Gao Fang, executive vice president of the China Cotton Association, said that 2010/2011's cotton output was 6 million 650 thousand tons, of which Xinjiang's output was 2 million 920 thousand tons.

As of May 31st, the total output reached 2 million 40 thousand tons.

Cotton consumption in this year was 11 million tons, an increase of 3.8%.

Gao Fang expects that the cotton planting area in China will grow by 81 million mu in 2011, an increase of 5.2%, mainly due to the adverse effects of drought and waterlogging in the Yangtze River Basin.

The Yangtze River Basin is expected to increase by 9.98%, an increase of 1.27% in the the Yellow River River Basin and an increase of 6.1% in the northwest inland.

Xinjiang's fruit sales in recent years are facing bottlenecks. If the government is supportive of cotton support, Xinjiang cotton should maintain an increase.

It is estimated that the cotton output in the new year will not be lower than this year.

Tan Andong, President of the US Alex company, said the global demand for cotton exceeded supply in the world and pushed prices to a large increase in the year.

In 2011, there was inherent instability in cotton pricing, and the price had exceeded the demand for area, but it was still not enough to contain demand.

Historically, the planting area has remained relatively stable when the price of cotton is between 65-85 US districts.

Tan Andong said that the global cotton inventory consumption in 2010 was 37%, and it was estimated to be 41% in 2011.

Looking forward to the 2011 year, we need to pay attention to two questions: first, the reduction of consumption is temporary or permanent; and the two is whether long-term cotton sales exceed the quantity available.

Tan Andong believes that volatility will continue before new cotton supply is determined.

The consumption and economic situation in the new year will be the key to affecting prices, and the supply and demand of cotton will remain tight in the new year.

The weather will be critical and no mistakes can be made in production.

The rise in cotton prices will lead to increased production and reduced consumption.

But the reduction of consumption is temporary or long-term.

Before the above factors are determined, cotton prices are hard to fall sharply, and may even be more severe than last year.

According to Ray Butler, according to the international cotton association, it is predicted that global cotton output will hit a new high in 2012. Cotton growers want to expand the area this year. However, the weather condition plays a key role in cotton production. If the main cotton producing countries in the world produce more difficulties, the market forecast bullish factor will be greatly increased.