The Macroeconomic Situation Of Garment Industry Is Not Optimistic In The Second Half Of 2011.

During the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009, China

Textile industry: "Crazy"

The frenzied cotton price will weaken in the second half of the year.

However, the life of most textile and garment enterprises is still hard to get through.

Many uncertain factors such as market and exchange rate are like the sharp sword hanging on the head of an enterprise.

"Despite the decline in cotton prices, the price of cotton yarn and cotton cloth recently purchased has not declined significantly, while the prices of raw materials such as chemical fiber, polyester and other petroleum materials have risen slightly. We can not feel the positive effect of the reduction of cotton prices for the time being."

Zhu Sujun, assistant president of Ningbo Shanshan stock company, said recently in an interview with reporters.

Zhu Sujun said: "the quantity of orders is almost the same as that of last year. We are more cautious, selective orders, try to pick profitable orders, and give up orders that are not guaranteed."

She used "smooth" to summarize the current situation.

Sun Ruizhe, vice chairman of the China Textile Industry Association, recently told an interview with our reporter that the feelings of different enterprises are different. Overall, the industry is not in a special crisis. At present, exports and domestic sales are generally good, and the growth rate is relatively stable.

However, the trend of high cost is inevitable, forcing the pformation and upgrading of enterprises.

Cotton price trouble

In the first half of this year, cotton prices were as crazy as last year and played a roller coaster.

In March this year, cotton prices rose to above 33 thousand yuan / ton, and then fell back to the current 24 thousand yuan / ton, down by about 30%.

Such ups and downs, so that many textile enterprises nervous tight, a little unmindful of the loss of blood.

Wang Yisheng, director of Lotte children's clothing, told reporters that the production of autumn and winter clothes is now started. This is all done after the customers paid the cash at the cotton price at that time. Therefore, the cotton price has little effect on the callbacks, while some enterprises that have hoarded large quantities of raw materials before they can pick up clothing orders now may suffer losses, and the customers have begun to press down the price.

"Affected by cotton price and exchange rate fluctuations, and unable to recruit workers or fail to meet the environmental requirements, some SMEs in Guangdong have been closed for the past two years, and orders have been pferred to other factories in Guangdong, partly to Southeast Asia or the mainland."

Wang Yisheng told reporters that his order increased by 20%~30% over the same period last year, which was related to the closure of some neighboring factories.

Cotton price shocks, electricity shortages and the continued instability in North Africa and the Middle East have affected the lack of foreign trade orders and shaken confidence in enterprises.

The China Keqiao textile index released in June 7th showed that the total business index in May closed at 1350.85 points, down 2.19% from April, down 8.97% compared with the same period last year.

The company's production confidence index closed at 947.99 points, down 1.24% compared with April, and the production index of raw materials, grey fabrics, home textiles and clothing accessories decreased.

Jiang Jianren, special commentator of "China textile index of Keqiao", said in an interview with the newspaper that the cotton price is high, to a certain extent, is artificially raised, and the water will be squeezed. In recent months, the cotton price has sometimes dropped by seven hundred or eight hundred yuan to 1 yuan per week.

With large inventory and low demand for downstream, the price of cotton in the near section has dropped.

However, since June, cotton prices have tended to be stable, and the situation in the second half of this year should be stable.

Sun Ruizhe pointed out that since last year, cotton prices have gone up and down, which is related to the speculation of international hot money, which has caused an impact on the normal operation order of the industry.

China is relatively short of resources. For example, 1/4's cotton is imported from abroad, and it is looking for alternative fiber resources. Solving the resource balance is an important goal of the 12th Five-Year plan for the textile and garment industry.

The industry generally believes that cotton prices have been almost near the bottom, but can not return to the low price in previous years, the second half of the year will be 24 thousand yuan / ton to 26 thousand yuan / ton between the narrow fluctuations.

Textile industry analyst Wang Qianjin said that in the second half of this year, the probability of cotton prices in the vicinity of 25000 yuan / ton will be greater, and the bottom space at the bottom is 22000~23000 yuan / ton.

Price is hard to callback.

When the price of cotton fell, overseas buyers demanded textile and clothing prices to adjust, but for most enterprises in China, there was almost no room for price reduction.

Wang Yisheng said that the export price of the company's clothing has increased by 20% over the same period last year, and even if the price of cotton falls, it will not be able to lower the price.

"Our clothing prices are high, mainly from the brand, the provision of recalled products, such as service breakthroughs, manual is also complex, high price competitors less, customers are not so sensitive to price, will not easily pfer orders to Southeast Asia and other places.

And some of the low and medium price enterprises that win the price are more stressed, and the order may be pferred without price reduction.

Wang Yisheng said.

Zhong Haosen, assistant general manager of Guangdong textiles import and export Limited by Share Ltd, said that the decline in cotton prices is beneficial to the export of enterprises in the second half of the year, and to a certain extent, the pressure of labor cost and exchange rate should be washed away, but profits will not improve.

He said that some customers asked for a reduction in price. For customers whose orders were very large, they would give 1%~2% a little benefit on the price, but they would not reduce the price for the vast majority of customers.

In the first quarter of this year, China's clothing shoes and hats and needle textiles retail 201 billion 400 million yuan, an increase of 22.3% over the same period last year.

According to the latest statistics from the customs, 1~5 exports of clothing in China increased by US $51 billion 290 million in the month of 1~5 this year, an increase of 23.1%, and the export of textiles was US $37 billion 550 million, an increase of 31.5%.

Wang Qian believes that the price of both internal and external sales has increased in the first half of this year, but it also affects the slowdown in volume growth.

In the second half of the year, there are many uncertainties in the market, the situation is more complex, enterprises will enter the adjustment period, especially the export situation is not very good.

China's export volume of textile and clothing has increased by about 15% last year, and this year will slow to 5%.