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Is It A Conspiracy To Sing Empty Renminbi Overseas?

2011/6/20 10:16:00 62

The reform of RMB exchange rate formation mechanism 1st Anniversary RMB has appreciated 5.5% against the US dollar.

In June 19th, China restarted the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform 1st anniversary.

Yesterday, the China Foreign Exchange Trading Center announced the interbank loan.

foreign exchange market

The central parity of the RMB exchange rate was 1 yuan to 6.4716 yuan, a sharp rise of 87 basis points over the previous trading day, and a new high since then.

Compared with the middle price of 6.6227 at the end of 2010, the yuan has appreciated 2.33% this year.

Since the reopening of the RMB exchange rate reform last June, the RMB has appreciated by 5.5% against the US dollar.

In June 19, 2010, the central bank announced further progress.

RMB rate

The reform of the formation mechanism will enhance the elasticity of RMB exchange rate.

When the central bank restarted the reform, it said: "to further promote the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism, we must adhere to the market supply and demand and adjust it with reference to a basket of currencies.

The RMB exchange rate will not be adjusted once and for all. The central bank will continue to dynamically manage and adjust the RMB exchange rate fluctuation in accordance with the floating interval of the announced foreign exchange market, and maintain the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level.

The 2010 annual report released by the foreign exchange bureau the day before yesterday pointed out that before the reopening of foreign exchange reform, the RMB remained stable against the US dollar and the central price fluctuated narrowly in the range of 6.8250 to 6.8300.

Further promoting the exchange rate reform, the RMB exchange rate flexibility has increased significantly.

From June 21, 2010 to December 31st, the maximum amplitude of the intermediate price was 295 basis points per day, and the average daily amplitude was 64 basis points. During the same period, the intermediate price of the 78 trading days increased every other day, the 53 trading days depreciated every other day, and the 1 trading days were unchanged from the previous day.

In 2010, the highest price was 6.6227 yuan / dollar (December 31st), the lowest was 6.8284 yuan / dollar (June 8th), the maximum amplitude was 2057 basis points, the daily average amplitude was 36 basis points, increased 1859 and 26 basis points respectively compared with 2009.

At present, the market generally believes that the RMB will also appreciate steadily. The appreciation of the appreciation is generally concentrated at the end of 6.2 to 6.3.

It is worth noting that recently, the idea of "singing empty" renminbi outside China has been continuously thrown out.

The reasons and arguments for overseas shorts are the risks and high inflation of China's hard landing.

Recently, domestic economics circles and institutions also have different opinions on the direction of macro policy. However, the mainstream view is that there is no sign of stagflation in China's economy and no risk of hard landing.

Chinese officials also don't think the fundamentals of China's economy are worth worrying about.

Sheng Yun Yun, a spokesman for the National Bureau of statistics, said recently that although the economic performance of some indicators in May has dropped, the national economy still runs in a stable and relatively fast growth range, and continues to develop towards the direction of macro regulation and control.

There are still many people in the industry who, from a technical level, can't afford to short the renminbi.

Chinese

capital account

Without opening up, the renminbi can not be freely convertible, and the stock and circulation of hedge funds can not afford to short the renminbi, which is almost harmless to the domestic market and the Chinese economy.

Even if foreign hedge funds can buy a put option, China's economic fundamentals are developing well. Shorting the renminbi is beneficial to China. The depreciation of the RMB is conducive to China's export trade.

Sun Lijian, vice president of School of economics, Fudan University, pointed out that although this is a ridiculous formulation, this hype is worth paying attention to.

Hedge funds may want to use public opinion to engage in civil strife, and choose to narrow the Chinese economy in a small way.

From the United States to suppress the Chinese concept stocks, to "doomsday doctor" Roubini spread the Chinese economy may be hard landing remarks, we can see that they want to strategically suppress China's rise and curb the internationalization of RMB obviously.

At present, the US dollar led international monetary system is becoming increasingly marginalized, and other emerging economies have the same way of leaving the US dollar.

The US does not want monetary dominance to be replaced by rapidly developing China and will not abandon the hegemony of the US dollar.