One Year Central Bank Interest Rate Jumped To Raise Interest Rate Expectations

On the 21 day, the central bank issued a 1 billion yuan 1 year central bank vote, winning the bid rate jumped 9.61 basis points to 3.4019%, breaking the 3.3058% level that has been maintained for 10 weeks.

The central bank previously issued the March central bank issuance rate has also gone up 8 basis points.

Because the one-year central bank is regarded as the vane of the benchmark interest rate by the market, this further enhanced the anticipation of raising interest rates before the issuance of statistical data in the early July. The central bank also raised the central bank issuing rate before the April 5th interest rate increase.

"The issuance rate of the 1 year central bank has been higher than the benchmark interest rate, and the interest rate will be getting closer. However, due to the increase in the central bank's interest rate in March last week, the risk of the two tier market was also released ahead of schedule. Therefore, the market has anticipated the increase in the interest rate of the central bank this year."

China Minsheng Bank (600016, stock bar)

Ping An Securities reported on Monday that from May China's consumer price index (CPI) data showed that food and non food year-on-year growth rates were higher, indicating that the overall price increase was more obvious, and the expected time window for raising interest rates should be in the last two weeks.

At the same time, money market interest rates have continued to soar in recent years, which is far beyond the benchmark interest rate. This also forces the central bank to raise the benchmark interest rate to narrow the gap between the real interest rate and the real interest rate.

The 21 day, within 2 months, the pledged repo rate broke through 7%, and the weighted average interest rates of 14 days, 21 days and 1 months rose to a higher level of 7.5% or more.

On the same day, the Treasury and the central bank's treasury cash management with interest rate tenders, the commercial banks' tendering rate of 9 month time deposits was up to 5.9%.

Previously, the interest rate on 10 - year treasury bonds issued last Wednesday rose to 3.99%, which is already comparable to that of the two tier market.

On the 22 day, the Ministry of finance will issue 30 year fixed rate treasury bonds, and the average forecast price of the market will be 4.44%, far higher than the two level.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said the interbank market

"From last week's March central bank and the 21 day 1 year central bank tender issue, the central bank issued a" small step "strategy, on the one hand, waiting for the liquidity tension of the banking system to ease, and on the other hand, the timing of the policy of raising interest rates.

Industry analysts believe that the right time window should be in early July.

"The central government's determination to control inflation is obvious. On the other hand, it is necessary to lay a foundation for controlling inflation and stabilizing the money market in the second half of the year. We should raise interest rates once before the June CPI data comes out."

Zong Liang, deputy general manager of the Strategic Development Department of Bank of China (601988, stock bar) believes that "raising interest rates will help maintain a relatively stable inflation in June, and will not lead to a further rise in the CPI index or even 6%. In this sense, interest rate increases have been on the string."

In addition, due to the cumulative effect of the continuous increase in deposit rate, there are institutional studies that the overall overhang rate of commercial banks has dropped to 0.7%-0.8% at the end of 5.

Some agencies believe that the possibility of continuing to raise the deposit reserve ratio is decreasing in the future. If policy tightening is necessary, the feasible regulation is to raise interest rates.

Wind's data also show that in July, the market value of the open market is only 372 billion yuan, and the liquidity pressure will be significantly reduced.

Other agencies predict that new additions will be made in July.