Sources Said The Central Bank Reverse Repo 50 Billion Blood Pfusion Two Big Banks

With the arrival of the 20 day of the central bank's increase in the statutory reserve requirement ratio, the interbank market liquidity has reached its peak.

Money market

Analysts believe that under the central bank's arrangement, the future interest rate of funds will continue to be limited. However, given the impact of short-term payments and the end of the quarter, liquidity tensions will not be eased soon.

Entering the year July, it is difficult to improve the market capital situation.

At the end of 5, the central bank's deposit balance is estimated that the central bank's latest reserve requirement rate can freeze about 380 billion yuan in the banking system.

As the central bank adheres to the "monthly rule", the bank capital chain is quite tense.

Since June 15th, the interest rate indicators of all funds have risen all the way.

Taking the pledge repo rate as an example, there were multiple repo rates in 20 days, which rose by 7%, reaching the peak level since February.

Among them, the overnight repurchase weighted interest rate rose to 6.92%, and the 7 day repurchase rate reached 7.51%.

The p monthly cross season varieties also maintained upward momentum, and 14, 21 and 1 months of repurchase weighted interest rates rose to above 7.5%.

The rate of interbank lending rate and interbank interbank dismantling rate in Shanghai also have a similar trend.

According to some institutions, by the end of May, the over storage rate of commercial banks has dropped to below 1%, and the monthly funding will lead to more and more tension in the capital chain of the banking system. This may magnify the extent of the impact of policy operation and event impact on the capital side.

Due to the strong sentiment of banks, there is limited space for future capital interest rates to fall.

From the perspective of capital supply and demand, first, 6 and July are the peak cash dividends of listed companies. The agency expects that more than 200 billion yuan of funds will leave the banking system during this period.

Secondly, 6 and July are also the peak period for overseas dividends of domestic companies, and the increase in foreign exchange holdings may be a temporary drop.

Thirdly, new fiscal deposits or seasonal growth in July.

Fourth, the latest data show that the July open market due to the capital of 372 billion yuan, the liquidity will be significantly reduced.

Finally, in order to meet the loan to deposit ratio assessment, it is estimated that interbank assets may return to deposit accounts at the end of June, which means that the reserve requirement in early July will increase significantly.

With the current situation projected, the financial strain will continue for several weeks.