Market Capital Interest Rate Or Sustained High

Sixth times a year in commercial banks reserve Payment is officially launched today. Before that, the market capital interest rate represented by the 7 day repurchase (R007) just reached the second peak in the year. The 17 day 7 day repo weighted average interest rate rose to 6.7066% again, only slightly below the interest rate level at the end of 1 this year. In recent years, interbank lending and interbank offered rate (Shibor) in Shanghai have also been increasing in recent years.

Observers point out that inflation Pressure has not yet been effectively alleviated, monetary tightening has not been relaxed, and in March, the central bank's interest rate rose unexpectedly last week, raising interest rates for the market. policy Further tightening is expected to remain strong, and this will continue to adversely affect market capital interest rates. On the other hand, in the 4 and 5 months, the broad money M2 growth slowed down for the first time in two consecutive months. It further showed that the number of early tightening measures has begun to play a role in the broad money supply level. From the late June, July and August lower maturity funds regulation, it is difficult to get effective market liquidity from the open market. Taking all factors into account, analysts pointed out that the market capital interest rate will continue to operate at a high level for a long time to come.

In the context of tight capital market, the central bank chose the sixth time to raise the deposit reserve rate in a year, which still exceeded the market expectations to a certain extent. Analysts said that the central bank's move once again highlighted its policy decision to continue to fight inflation with a relatively high degree of austerity. Substantial easing of monetary tightening is expected to be difficult in the near future. On the other hand, in the context of internal and external inflationary pressures, the central bank's sixth time in the year did not dispel market expectations for further increases in the central bank's interest rate. According to the consensus of most mainstream institutions, the CPI growth rate in June will continue to surpass the high point in May. If the expectation is finally verified, the central bank will probably choose to raise interest rates again before and after July, which is expected to further raise the interbank market lending rate. As a matter of fact, the uplink of the central bank's issuance rate in March last week is a more subtle signal in the market.

At the same time, from the level of money supply, the central bank's financial data released a week ago showed that money supply and new loans were lower than expected at the end of 5. On the other hand, WIND statistics show that, as at June 19th, the funds for the open market in late June, July and August were 199 billion yuan, 372 billion yuan and 206 billion yuan respectively, of which 7 and 8 months were significantly lower than those of June over 600 billion yuan. From this perspective, it is difficult for the future market capital to gain strong support from the open market.

It is worth noting that although the pattern of high capital interest rates may continue in the longer term, it is not necessarily a negative signal for the stock market. Over the past few years, there has been a significant negative correlation between the interbank market capital interest rate and the stock index operation cycle in a number of time points. Since 2009, many important stages of the A share market tend to correspond to the high point of the capital interest rate. From this point of view, although the pattern of high capital interest rate may persist for a long time, if the market interest rate of the market will not continue to reach a new high in the future, the A share market is likely to usher in the bottom of the stage.