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The Industry Believes That The Recent Fluctuations In Cotton Prices Will Remain Obvious.

2011/6/23 14:06:00 48

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Cotton Price Textile Enterprises Cotton Market

Early stage Zheng

Cotton price

Under the hype of disaster weather factors, the grid will usher in a short-term rebound through breaking through the consolidation area. Due to the high domestic inflation rate and the poor cotton fundamentals, the cotton price trend in the late stage will end and rebound will fall.

Since the 3 and April of this year, the "busy season" phenomenon in cotton city has been continuous.

Textile enterprises

"Complain bitterly."

Textile enterprises are slow to stock up. The cotton digested in the past year can be digested only in a month. Now it takes two months to digest.

At the same time, the price of downstream yarn is also falling.

As of June 14th, the price of 32 pure cotton yarn prices was 31500 yuan / ton, although the yarn price declines have slowed down, they have maintained a slight downward trend.

However, the price of polyester staple fiber has increased slightly in recent years. The textile enterprises in the market have reduced the proportion of cotton and replaced the amount of chemical fiber instead. In the short and medium term, the enthusiasm of textile enterprises to purchase cotton is difficult to raise, and wait-and-see sentiment will continue.

In addition, with the "double knot zero" time approaching at the end of August, the weak cotton business involved.

capital

The pressure has also increased greatly. These enterprises have also increased the sales of cotton, but the market tends to be "selling lower, getting lower and taking no more goods", which leads to the current market downturn.

The spot price of the 3 grade cotton has stabilized after a sharp fall in the spot price between 24500~25000 yuan / ton. It is not clear whether the latter will fall sharply in the near future. At least in the current situation, there is no hope of rising.

From the above point of view, in the case of continuous contraction of market liquidity and downstream cotton consumption, the central bank is still expected to maintain a downward trend. In addition, considering that the spot price of cotton will stabilize in the 24500~25000 yuan / ton range, there will be some support for the cotton futures price, and there will be little room for future downfall, which will test the low level 24200 yuan / ton support position.