Shoes And Clothing Market: Continue To Tighten Or Close Down Collectively

A number of recent official surveys show that the survival of small and medium-sized shoe and clothing enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta region has been plunged into a trough for many years. The operation seems to be worse than the financial crisis in 2008.

At the same time, the call for an end to tighter policy has been heating up recently. Many scholars believe that the tight policy in the past six months is the most direct reason for the survival difficulties of small and medium-sized shoe and clothing enterprises. It is obvious that the 6 increase in the deposit reserve ratio in the past six months has increased the borrowing costs of many small businesses by 50%, or even failed to get enough money to become the last straw to crush small businesses.

　　 Shoes and clothing What is the survival problem of small and medium-sized enterprises? Is the austerity policy the culprit of "no" of SMEs? What should we do next? This newspaper invited Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou SME Development Association, Yao Jingyuan, chief economist of the former National Bureau of statistics, Alex Fresse, chief operating officer of CASS business school, and Sheng Shengli, vice president of Fengxian branch of Shenzhen Development Bank.

Shoe clothing and other small business pressure exceeded 2008

Reporter: Recently, all parties are concerned about the problem of small and medium enterprises such as shoes and clothing. Guangdong and Zhejiang have previously acknowledged that some small businesses have run difficulties, but there has been no "collapse". What do you know about this?

Zhou Dewen: a large area of "collapse tide" has not yet appeared, but many enterprises are in a state of shutdown and semi shutdown. This is an indisputable fact.

Now, small and medium-sized enterprises such as shoes and clothing have difficulty in operation. They can not be explained by the simple survival of the fittest. It can be said that the production pressure of small businesses exceeds any period this year, including the financial crisis. It includes some ministries and offices and the National Federation of industry and commerce. Material Science On the basis of this judgement, I feel that some scholars and organizations need not deliberately conceal this.

Besides, I think Medium and small shoes and garments The viability of enterprises is not due to the speculation of copper speculation, mainly due to changes in the external environment and tight policies, such as appreciation of the renminbi and price rise of raw materials. It is not fully consistent with the fact that small businesses stir up copper and real estate have led enterprises to go bankrupt. As far as I know, only a few enterprises fry coal in real estate.

Yao Jingyuan: in 2008, 15% enterprises in China were forced to close down and shut down. In addition, 20% of the enterprises were forced to cut production and tens of millions of people were unemployed. I was in Guangdong research, to see the Guangdong railway station the sea of people, the children cry wife, a tragedy. As for the recent survey of small businesses in Zhejiang, I am planning to make a general judgement by waiting for the two quarter data to come out.

Sheng Shengli: I am familiar with small businesses in Fengxian. It can be said that small businesses in Fengxian are the largest in every part of Shanghai. The pressure is really a little bigger than last year, but what you call "closure tide" has not yet appeared in the manufacturing enterprises that I am in touch with.

Why is there a closure phenomenon in Wenzhou? Some bosses in Wenzhou told me that most of the small businesses turned to high interest private loans, and some of them went out of business.

The double blow of "lack of people" and "lack of money"

Reporter: what industries do you see mainly in business difficulties? What kind of countermeasures are they seeking recently?

Zhou Dewen: in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, about 70% of the enterprises are export-oriented. We can see that in this round of survival crisis, the traditional labor intensive industries are more vulnerable, such as shoes, clothing, lighters. In light of the lighters industry, there are more than 3000 enterprises in Wenzhou (before 2008). Now there are less than 100 enterprises. Most of them are in the process of shutting down or waiting for mergers and acquisitions.

In my opinion, the main reason for the difficulties in production and operation of enterprises is the two factors of capital and cost. The appreciation of RMB, the increase of raw material prices and labor costs have also increased very rapidly this year. Coupled with the structural shortage of electricity and the rise in electricity prices, the cost of enterprises has risen sharply, and the central bank has substantially increased the reserves and tightened the money supply, and most of the SMEs have tight funds. Enterprises can't predict their future at all. {page_break}

Sheng Shengli: the cost of labor is higher than that of last year. Since January this year, the owners of small and medium-sized enterprises that I have contacted are all saying that workers are hard to find. Even if they find them, the wage requirements will be at least 15% higher than that of last year. Why can't we find it? For those workers, the cost of living in Shanghai is high. If we keep the original wage level and do not want to come, if we can not earn enough money, we may as well go back to our hometown.

For enterprises, workers demand higher wages, so the pressure will be great. Now enterprises are afraid to reserve their inventory, and the money will start to produce when the money arrives. Now the list also requires the other party to pay first and control the scale of production.

Labor intensive enterprises can not say that transformation is about transformation.

Reporter: what do you think of the phenomenon of small and medium enterprises going out of the factory for cost consideration? For example, the Wenzhou enterprises that made shoes originally made foundry for the brand, and now they are transferring the factories to countries with lower labor costs, such as Vietnam and Bangladesh.

Zhou Dewen: now the most important pressure of manufacturing enterprises is capital and cost. These pressures make it difficult for enterprises to maintain production and operation in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. In order to survive, they have to move to the central and western regions, Southeast Asia, and even Africa and Latin America. In fact, these regions have also launched policies to attract enterprises to invest in factories. In recent years, Southeast Asian countries have adopted some special means of attracting foreign investment to attract these enterprises.

I think these enterprises that turn the manufacturing industry out may be able to spare some energy and money to enter other fields and carry out the so-called transformation, but only a small number of enterprises can do so. The shift also requires a lot of input. In the new place, the factory building needs new equipment, so only a small number of enterprises have this capability.

Sheng Shengli: as far as I know, there are more enterprises moving to the mainland, many enterprises are implementing, and some enterprises have already been included in the plan. Among them, there are many bosses in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and few local enterprises in Shanghai are ready to move from Shanghai to Jiangsu, Anhui, Henan, Sichuan and other relatively low cost provinces.

When it comes to transformation, it takes a long process to transform from a labor-intensive manufacturing enterprise without core technology to a manufacturing enterprise, not to say that it can turn now, and to build a brand requires at least a few years of accumulation, not so fast.

Alex Fresse: for enterprises, very few decisions will be made in the long run. Many times, they are fully considered from the cost point of view. However, in fact, we have also done research. The actual cost brought by cross border relocation factories is very high, and the company has to pay a very high price in terms of corporate culture and employee loyalty.

Another question is whether the political situation of a market is stable.

The government should pay attention to policy dynamics.

Reporter: many people believe that tight policies have exacerbated the difficult situation of small businesses such as shoes and clothing. From the current bank lending rate to small businesses, it seems to prove this point. What do you think of it?

Zhou Dewen: in addition to the ten measures adopted by the CBRC (the notice on supporting commercial banks to further improve the financial services of small enterprises), no other departments have yet promulgated a new policy to support the development of small businesses.

The constant tightening of the money supply has been a blow to the confidence of the small and medium-sized enterprises, especially when the small and medium-sized enterprises are in a difficult situation. The reserve requirement is still rising. This can only lead to the survival crisis of the small and medium-sized enterprises. Our country sees inflation very seriously. The tight policy does not actually bring down prices. The government should rethink: does the policy catch the root of the disease? Is it the right remedy? Is it really in line with China's current operation?

Although there is no collapse at present, if the government and society do not take effective measures and improve the external environment to help SMEs, there may be a large "closing tide" in the second half of this year.

According to the Research Report of the National Federation of industry and commerce, there are 20% enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces, but in the Pearl River Delta, 30% of them stop production.

What do these owners do after they stop production? Some owners sell their businesses, and they draw money out into private lending, venture capital, or transfer to foreign countries. The phenomenon of capital escaping from industry is very worrying.

The interest rate of private lending has been very high. In fact, enterprises are forced to borrow such high interest money. Entrepreneurs look at enterprises as if they are children. As long as there is still one breath, they must fight hard and borrow high interest funds. This is because entrepreneurs want more enterprises to survive than anyone else, but frankly speaking, the cost of such high interest is certainly not affordable in the long run.

Yao Jingyuan: now that the whole monetary policy is tightening up, the financing difficulties of enterprises, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, have been brought to a certain extent. This will bring certain influence to the production and operation of small and medium-sized enterprises. This is indeed a problem. But now we are trying to control the general level of prices as the first goal of macroeconomic regulation and control.

Why? Price rises may be higher in June than in May, because the tail factor in May is 3.2 (percentage point), and the tail factor in June is 3.7 (percentage points). The tail factor is a big drop in the three quarter, especially in the fourth quarter. I mean that the downward trend of China's prices may show up in the three quarter. But what we can see clearly, we will be able to feel clearly. Under such circumstances, I feel that monetary policy can not be loosened. Once loose, economic growth is too fast to overheat. It is not impossible to overheat. So in this situation, it is still necessary to keep prices in the first place of macroeconomic regulation. Of course, under such circumstances, we also need to pay close attention to and closely observe the rhythm and intensity of monetary policy regulation. This is very important. {page_break}

Sheng Shengli: in Shanghai, private lending is also not as strong as Wenzhou. First, the amount is relatively small, and the two is a relatively short period. It is mainly used for repayment of loans to solve temporary capital shortfalls. Once the bank's loan is out, the money from private lending will be lost. It is also due to receivables being delayed, no money being forwarded to wages and taxes, and private lending. After one or two months, accounts receivable will be paid back. They are all used for emergency and will not cause bankruptcy. In Wenzhou, if high interest private lending is used for production and operation, the enterprise is likely to collapse.

Because of the pressure of enterprises, for export oriented enterprises, the appreciation of RMB is also squeezing profit margins. Each appreciation of 1% means a 1% decrease in profits and a 1% decrease in revenue. The financing cost of banks is also increasing. For small and medium enterprises, the interest rate of banks has gone up 50%, and the general corporate mortgage loans have also risen to 10%-20%.

However, banks still have some quota for small businesses such as shoes, clothing and so on. Especially during this period, the loan stock of local financing platform has been gradually recovered, and this part of the turnover has also been invested in manufacturing small businesses.

This year, the banks' enthusiasm for small businesses is also improving. On the one hand, they are influenced by the monetary policy regulation policy, on the other hand, the loan interest rate of private enterprises is relatively higher.

"We can't hide the problem of small businesses".

Reporter: small businesses have gone bankrupt, but small business owners are not bankrupt. What do you think of this phenomenon? Another saying is that small businesses will close every three years in order to avoid tax.

Zhou Dewen: I think there is a trend in society that is trying to cover up the problem. It is very natural to think that the current difficulties of small businesses are natural laws and let them live on their own. There are a few cases of tax avoidance for small businesses, but most of them are not the same. I think this is a distortion of the understanding of SMEs and can not be regarded as a mainstream.

The latest survey by the National Federation of industry and Commerce shows that 90% of the small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with a scale below the national economic and Trade Commission have never had any loan relationship with banks. The 95% of micro enterprises have not had any relationship with banks. It can be said that the financial system is very imperfect now, and there are few banks serving small businesses.

Under the present circumstances, it is suggested that the state should relax the policy of tight monetary policy appropriately, relax the money supply appropriately, increase the support for small and medium-sized enterprises such as shoes and clothing, etc. Two, directly reduce taxes for small and medium-sized enterprises, and cultivate fish with water; three, increase the proportion of direct financing of enterprises; four, speed up the pace of financial opening to the outside world, allow private capital to be built as a "private bank" for small businesses, and allow private lending to legalize as soon as possible.