Bad Luck Raided &Nbsp; Cotton Led Domestic Commodity Futures.

Recently, many investors have been cheering for the rally of the market for nearly a week, but some investors are not happy at all because they try to catch a sharp sharp knife at the low end of the commodity.

The domestic cotton is undoubtedly the blade of this sharp knife. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell 4.98% on Monday, down the previous support and led the commodity market down. According to the latest national policy, China will reduce import tariffs on textile raw materials such as blended fabrics, linen yarns and so on from July 1st. The import tariff of blended fabrics will be reduced to 6% from 12% before. Zhengzhou's PTA price also dived 3.18% on Monday as a substitute for cotton and a weakening of its surrounding commodities.

"From the point of lowering import tariffs alone, it has little impact on cotton. But it also releases policy signals that the state may at any time reduce export tariffs on textile and clothing and voluntarily cool the economy, which will have a greater impact on cotton consumption confidence. Shanghai mid-term analyst sees thunder thunder.

Tariff reduction helps prevent large quantities. Raw material At the same time, the volume of domestic cotton futures is also decreasing, and investment sentiment in the market has cooled down. Zhengzhou cotton futures trading since the end of 5 has been suppressed below 2 million hands, positions also dropped from the peak of 660 thousand hands to 600 thousand hands, while prices continue to shock down, indicating that there is a capital initiative to withdraw from the market. The state's 19800 yuan / ton purchase and storage of cotton "low price" and the decline in import tax also meet the needs of stabilizing prices, which is very conducive to the layout of cotton shorts.

In addition to targeted measures to maintain stability, higher inflation data also make investors worry that further tightening of policy will bring systemic risks to commodities. China's CPI growth rate has reached 5.5% in May. Many market participants expect the CPI growth rate to reach a new high in June. The annual inflation rate may even reach 5%, and the central bank may raise interest rates again at any time. Commodity prices have been greatly influenced by policy expectations. Most of the products haven't been accompanied by stock market rebound in the past week. The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded over 5% in the past six trading days. cotton And other mainstream commercial varieties showed a unilateral downward trend. "One of the main problems affecting the company's profitability is high raw material prices and high production costs. The return of commodities is good for the company's earnings and the stock market, which is the opposite reason for the cotton price and the market trend." See thunder.

Cotton has always been one of the most sensitive varieties of macroeconomic policy responses. In November of last year and mid February of this year, after China entered the tightening channel, cotton had been the pioneer of commodity callbacks, slipping from 33000 yuan / ton, and the domestic cotton price has been diving about 30% higher than the historical high point. Cotton on the outside is also infected by Zheng cotton, such as the fall of Zheng cotton on Monday, which has led the ICE to hit the limit overnight.

Sure and pure. Agriculture products Compared with industrial products, cotton is a special commodity, which has both seasonal attributes and investment attributes. Therefore, the weather and planting situation will also have an impact on cotton prices.

Considering the import tariff, downstream demand and capital movements, the focus of the market will turn to the report of the US Department of agriculture, which will be released on the 30 th of this month. Now the total position of ICE cotton has risen to more than 132 thousand hands. It seems that funds continue to accumulate bargaining chips before the report has been released.