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Go Stock To Continue &Nbsp; Zheng Cotton Is Weak And Short Term Is Hard To Return.

2011/7/4 11:37:00 82

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Zheng cotton in mid June after a short period of consolidation continued downward, the main 1201 contract broke through the previous low point, but the magnitude is not large, the two sides of the 22400 sides of the gap between the two sides.

The author believes that at present, the export growth of cotton has slowed down, and there has not been a big breakthrough in domestic sales, so the textile and garment industry has been shrinking. Therefore, in view of the pressure of funds, inventory is still the primary goal of cotton spinning enterprises. In the short term, Zheng cotton is hard to get back.

Index continues to fall, inflation or innovation high

The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry, released in June 1, was 50.9%, down 1.1 percentage points.

Since March 2009, the index has been in the expansion interval for 50% consecutive months in the 28 consecutive months, reflecting the current economic growth, but the trend of growth is still continuing.

In terms of inflation, the year-end increase in June will exceed 6% in June, due to the significant rise in the tail factor in June, coupled with the driving force of the severe weather and the rise in pork prices.

From the fourth quarter of last year to the present intensive policy regulation, the space for further tightening in the second half of this year has been relatively limited. Later monetary tightening regulation will gradually enter a relatively stable effect observation period.

Spot price fell, and downstream inventory pressure was bigger.

Cotton spot prices continued to decline after a brief stabilization in early June, and there are no signs of stopping.

In July 2nd, a large textile enterprise in Binzhou, Shandong, once again sharply lowered the purchase price of grade four lint, adjusted for 21400 yuan / ton, down 1300 yuan / ton before, and the price of grade three cotton remained unchanged.

The pressure on cotton enterprises to repay loans increased and cotton sales were eager, but the turnover was light.

Textile mills continue to reduce prices to inventory, textile enterprises maintain low raw material inventories, but yarn stocks continue to increase.

July will enter the off-season textile consumption, once the inventory can not be successfully digested, the demand will drop sharply.

In the latest PMI released in June, the textile industry index fell below 50%, while the new orders index continued to decline, indicating that the textile industry is still in a weak state.

Import tariff reduction of textile raw materials speeds up cotton price fall

Since July 1st, the Ministry of finance has decided to reduce import tariffs on textile raw materials such as blended fabrics, linen and yarn.

In the light of

chemical fiber

The tariff reductions for textile raw materials and products, such as blended fabrics and cotton fabrics, reached 50%, of which the import duty of blended fabrics fell to 6% from 12% before.

The fall in import tax rate will guide our country to increase the import of cotton textile materials, adjust the import and export structure of China's cotton textile raw materials, ease the gap between supply and demand of cotton in China and suppress it.

Cotton price

。

And it also releases policy signals that the country is likely to downgrade textile and apparel at any time.

Export tax rebate

Take the initiative to cool the economy.

This has a greater impact on cotton consumption confidence, which has led to market resonance and accelerated the decline in cotton futures prices.

Export growth slowed, overseas orders pfer

In the first 5 months of this year, the export of textile and garment industry increased by 26.52% year-on-year, of which the export growth rate of textiles and clothing was 31.5% and 23.1% respectively.

From the perspective of volume and price relations, the high growth of export volume in the first 5 months is more likely to come from the increase in product prices brought about by the promotion of raw material prices. Therefore, with the improvement of the base price and the subsequent order price drop brought by the fluctuation of raw material prices, it is expected that the export growth rate of textile and garment industry in 2011 will be higher than before, and the export growth rate of the single month in May will be reduced.

Since December 2009, due to the continuous rise of labor costs in China, labor-intensive garment processing enterprises are gradually shifting to Southeast Asia, and the growth rate of textile and garment exports is expected to slow down gradually.

Cotton production concerns in the new year

De stocking is the focus of the current market, but as time goes on, the new year cotton production forecast will gradually attract market attention.

The annual growth of cotton growing area at home and abroad is relatively large. The US Department of agriculture report shows that the actual planting area of the United States cotton in 2011/2012 is 13 million 725 thousand acres, an increase of 25% compared to 10 million 974 thousand acres in the current year.

Domestic cotton planting area will also increase by about 6%, and in addition to some areas due to disaster weather growth, the overall growth of domestic cotton is in good condition, and the yield is expected to increase.

If the weather conditions are good, increasing production will become a powerful kinetic energy to suppress cotton prices.

From a technical perspective, both the US cotton and zhengmian have broken down important support contracts in recent months, although the annual performance of new cotton contracts has been more resilient, but the probability of breaking down has gradually increased.