Out Of The Vicious Circle Of "Cotton Cheap Injury To Agriculture, Cotton And Expensive Injury"

Policy design needs to balance the relationship among various stakeholders, open up and straighten out all links in the industrial chain, and establish reasonable rules in various fields such as production, processing and circulation, so as to achieve balance between various links and form a community of interests.

During the post financial crisis, the world economy recovered, liquidity increased, commodity prices continued to rise, inflationary pressures were spreading from emerging economies to developed economies, and the world economy was faced with many variables on the road to recovery. Although China's economic recovery rate exceeded expectations, it faced new challenges. Commodity prices rose faster and inflation expectations increased. Faced with this situation, the Chinese government took effective measures to deal with it in time: the central bank raised interest rates 4 times from January 2010, raised the deposit reserve ratio for the 11 time, increased the supply of commodities, stabilized the general level of consumer prices, and guaranteed the basic livelihood of the masses. At present, macroeconomic regulation has achieved initial success: speculative speculation has been effectively curbed and prices remain stable.

2010/2011, Cotton price The surge has reached a record high, and then has dropped rapidly. The price fluctuation is large and the speed is fast. A comprehensive analysis shows that cotton prices fluctuate so much that there are deeper reasons besides supply and demand factors. First, there is a surplus of capital liquidity in the world. Apart from the speculation of oil and gold resources, hot money in domestic and international markets has surged to large agricultural and sideline products, of which cotton ranks the top among all agricultural and sideline products. Two, economic recovery and growth in the world are the fundamental driving force to support the rise of commodity prices. The major agricultural products, including cotton, have bid farewell to the era of low prices. Three, some countries have adopted restrictive policies on the export of cotton and other products, which has affected the global cotton supply and demand pattern and aggravated the sharp fluctuations in cotton prices.

Although the global economy is gradually recovering, the deep impact of the financial crisis is still continuing. There are many uncertainties: the world's political and economic environment is still complex; the contradictions accumulated in the long and rapid development of China's economy are increasingly apparent, and the pressure of rising prices continues to be large, and the task of adjusting the economic structure is arduous. Textile industry It is also facing a grim situation. A fact worthy of attention in the industry is that in the past ten years, the rural labor force has been flowing to the city to a large extent, the urbanization rate has increased by 13.6%, the urban population has increased by 200 million, and it is all young and middle-aged labor force. The sustainable development of cotton production in China is faced with many challenges, such as labor shortage and cost increase, and the comparative benefit of cotton planting.

A large population and textile country like China is a long-term and stable system in policy design. We often say that agriculture is stable and the world is prosperous. Along with the further development of industrialization and urbanization, the Chinese government has put forward the idea of synchronizing the promotion of agricultural modernization, that is, "synchronization of three elements". This is a measure of overall overview, long-term vision and keeping pace with the times.

China is the largest cotton producing country and cotton producing country in the world. In the past ten years (2001~2010), China has an average annual cotton planting area of 78 million 210 thousand mu (5 million 214 thousand hectares), with an average output of 6 million 230 thousand tons, accounting for about 30% of the world's total output. In 2010, the national spinning capacity was 120 million spindles, yarn production 27 million 170 thousand tons, and textile and garment exports 206 billion 500 million dollars, all over 2 times more than that of 2001. In the next 5~10 years, China's position as a major cotton producer and consumer will not change fundamentally: cotton production capacity still has growth potential, especially in Xinjiang, which has abundant cultivated land resources and skilled cotton planting technology. The state has supportive policies and farmers have the willingness to cotton planting.

According to the latest monitoring of China Cotton Association, the cotton planting area in 2011 was 81 million mu, which increased by 5.2% compared with the previous year. This year, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River encountered a rare drought. In recent years, drought and flooding in some provinces have had a certain impact on cotton growth. But the cotton growing in Xinjiang and the Yellow River is better. If there are no major natural disasters in the future, cotton is still expected to achieve a good harvest this year.

In order to prevent price ups and downs and dampen farmers' enthusiasm, at the end of March this year, the state issued a temporary cotton purchase and storage policy, normalizing and institutionalized the policy of temporary motion in the past. This will help stabilize the market expectations of cotton producers, operators and cotton producers, protect the interests of cotton farmers and ensure market supply.

We should also see that the cotton industry chain is long and there are many participants. Conflicts of interest are unavoidable. Therefore, policy design also needs to balance the relations among the various stakeholders, to open up and straighten out all links in the industrial chain, and to establish reasonable rules in various fields such as production, processing and circulation, so as to protect the interests of cotton farmers, enhance the enthusiasm of cotton growers, and consider the affordability of textile enterprises, so as to strike a balance between the various links and form a community of interests.

In the implementation of policies, attention should be paid to detail and consideration in a more thorough and comprehensive way. For example, while using minimum purchase price to mobilize the enthusiasm of cotton farmers, we should also provide convenient and efficient social services for cotton farmers. Not only to encourage Cotton grower Planting cotton also helps cotton farmers to sell cotton, sell a good price, link thousands of households' cotton farmers and ever-changing markets, vigorously develop professional cooperatives, change the vulnerable position of cotton farmers in the market, and help cotton farmers to increase production and income.

Similarly, China's textile industry must accelerate the transformation of development mode and change its excessive dependence on exports and low cost elements. In the global value chain, China's textile and garment industry is still in the processing and manufacturing stage, with insufficient innovation capability, lack of internationally famous brands and low added value of products. {page_break}

With the increase of resources, energy and labor costs, cotton prices may be at a high level for a long time. "Low cost" expansion can only bring vicious competition, which not only wastes resources, but also lacks international competitiveness. The textile industry urgently needs to seek the way of development in improving the added value and technical content of the products. Upgrading the industry has become a top priority. We must not go all in to talk about it. We must go deep processing, high-grade and brand building, and take the road of "intelligent creation" and "creation".

At present, the domestic innovation environment, innovation mechanism, innovative talents and innovation market are maturing. Textile enterprises should seize the opportunities, innovate and actively transform the value creation mode and their own development mode, and improve the added value and international influence of the products.