Changing Shoes And Clothing Chain &Nbsp; Experts Crack Black Curse.

In early June this year, Wenzhou Local famous enterprises Crash News such as blockbuster bombarded, rumors of "a large number of small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou went bankrupt" spread like wildfire. The Pearl River Delta appeared in 2008. Collapse tide "After three years, the Yangtze River Delta was shocked by the" collapse tide ". News came, local government departments immediately responded to rumors. Yesterday, the people's daily also joined the counterattack camp. The author retorted that the prosperity index of Zhejiang's private economy was still running high, and the 64% companies wanted to invest in the new economy. industry Small and medium-sized enterprises are not closing down.

It is obvious that the trend of collapse is closely related to the economic situation. Three years ago, the trend of the collapse was concentrated in the Pearl River Delta. Changjiang Delta In addition, the reason for the previous collapse is the impact of the financial crisis and the sharp contraction of the export market. The reason for this collapse is the tight monetary policy, which has led to the tightening of the capital chain of small and medium-sized enterprises. In fact, the impact of tightening on the capital chain of SMEs has attracted the attention of senior officials. In July 2nd, Wang Qishan, vice premier of the State Council, stressed that we should accelerate the spanformation of the development mode of the financial industry from the strategic and overall level, promote structural adjustment and reform and innovation, comprehensively raise the level of financial services for SMEs, and take measures to alleviate the financing difficulties of SMEs.

Some economists said yesterday in an interview with Nanfang Daily reporters that the rumors "hit" the Yangtze River Delta rather than the Pearl River Delta, which also reflects the difference between China's economic structure and economic cycle in 2008. "On the one hand, policy has changed from broad to tight; on the other hand, exports have rebounded and insufficient domestic demand has become a key factor hindering economic development."

Rumors of "collapse tide" swept the Yangtze River Delta

Three flag group, Jiangnan leather and Zhejiang Tianshi electronics closed down. Portman, the western restaurant owner of the restaurant chain, Yan Qin, went abroad for the couple. The educational institution Sicily education service company also suddenly closed down.

For a time, the small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou and even Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces encountered the rumors of "collapse tide", which was somewhat out of line with the reality that Jiangsu and Zhejiang had always been the most active areas of China's private economy.

Although there is no official data showing how many small and medium-sized enterprises in Wenzhou or Jiangsu and Zhejiang have closed down or lingered on the verge of collapse, many small and medium-sized enterprises have "serious operational difficulties" under the double squeeze of domestic macro tightening and external market downturn.

A number of Wenzhou official surveys show that the first quarter of this year, Wenzhou engaged in glasses, lighter, pen, lock and other exports of the 35 major enterprises decreased by about 30%, the loss of more than 1/4. By June, a sample survey of enterprises in Wenzhou showed that 42.9% of enterprises believed that capital was tight.

It is understood that the small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are facing many pressure to survive. Among them, credit shortage, recruitment difficulties, RMB appreciation, wage increase, energy conservation and emission reduction and structural adjustment are prominent problems. In the 2600 private enterprises monitored by the Zhejiang Provincial Bureau of industry and commerce, 69.65% of the enterprises indicated that the purchase price of raw materials increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and 31% of the enterprises thought that the current financing cost was too high.

Some entrepreneurs and officials in Wenzhou lament that the difficulties of enterprises are far more than that of the 2008 financial crisis. Liu Qiu Tong, a leather manufacturer in Longwan District, Wenzhou, said, "everyone is very nervous. They are struggling and holding their teeth."

Zhou Dewen, President of Wenzhou SME Promotion Association, said that if monetary policy continues to shrink and private lending interest rates continue to rise, more SMEs in Wenzhou will fall behind in the second half of this year.

More reports have pointed out that if the direction of external environment and domestic economic policy remains unchanged in the second half of this year, 40% of SMEs in Wenzhou will be in a semi shutdown state at the end of this year. {page_break}

There is no data to support rumours.

Soon after the rumors were issued, there was an echo.

In early June, officials from the local banking regulatory bureau of Wenzhou said that the investigation group composed by the China Banking Regulatory Commission and the Zhejiang SME Bureau initially believed that the "closing down tide" of SMEs was "unable to stand".

A person in charge of the Wenzhou development and Reform Commission said that although some small and medium-sized enterprises are facing difficulties now, compared with the huge base of the 200 thousand Wenzhou private enterprises, a few of the enterprises' capital chain failures and failures are in the normal range. There is no evidence to prove that SMEs are trapped in the collective collapse.

Li Xunlei, chief economist of Guotai Junan, said in an interview with Nanfang Daily reporter: "as far as I know, some enterprises are having a bad day, but there is no large-scale failure. Moreover, it is necessary to separate the medium-sized enterprises from the small ones. Compared with the small ones, the medium-sized enterprises will fail even less. "

And after the Zhejiang provincial industrial and commercial bureau issued the "two quarter report on the private enterprises' prosperity index" to fight back to the "collapse tide", the people's Daily yesterday also denied the related rumors that "Zhejiang's private economy is not yet" closed down ".

Zhejiang industrial and commercial bureau's report pointed out that in the two quarter of this year, Zhejiang's private enterprises' prosperity index was 110.22, and the seven quarter's healthy high operation interval was above 110, far higher than the lowest value of 2008 when the financial crisis was 89.46.

Reporters from the Wenzhou municipal government's official website found that in the first half of this year, Wenzhou's overall economy remained stable. In 1-5 months, the total industrial output value and sales output value of the above scale industry increased by 17.7% and 18.2% respectively, and the rate of production and sales of industrial products was 97.11%, a slight increase over the first quarter. In addition, Wenzhou's port foreign trade cargo throughput increased by 242.87% over the same period in 1-5.

Although no exact data about the collapse of enterprises were obtained, Wang Tao, the chief economist of UBS, expressed doubts about the rumours of "collapse" in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. "If there are indeed more severe failures than before, there will be a large number of workers losing their jobs, but at present, it is difficult to work hard." Wang Tao told reporters.

Analysis of insufficient domestic demand or rumor roots

It is worth noting that unlike the three years before the financial crisis, the Pearl River Delta first exposed the "collapse tide". This time, rumors chose the Yangtze River Delta.

Lu Lei, a well-known scholar and vice president of Guangdong University of Finance, told reporters that this actually reflects the different economic structure and economic cycle in the two places. "The global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009 led to a sudden fall in external demand. The obvious Pearl River Delta in the export-oriented economy bears the brunt. But although the external downturn is still in the doldrums, the impact has weakened much more than the financial crisis. The larger macroeconomic problem is the sluggish domestic demand. The more obvious introversion of the" Yangtze River Delta "rumors in the Yangtze River Delta reflects the potential problems of China's domestic demand.

In Lu Lei's view, PMI fell to 50.9 in June for the third consecutive month, and the 28 month low is the problem. "In addition, national large-scale projects are shrinking, and home appliances to the countryside and incentives to encourage car consumption are also gradually withdrawing."

Li Xunlei said that many enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta have been involved in the real estate market in addition to doing the general production business, including the restriction order, which makes the capital chain of SMEs very tight. "Although it is possible to recover some cash by selling the house, they are reluctant to sell it."

"At the same time, the upstream raw material costs are rising, the downstream supply is surplus, and terminal prices are not going to go, so that enterprises in the Yangtze River Delta, which are mainly domestic, are unable to extricate themselves as if they are in a mire." Li Xunlei said.

It is worth noting that under the continuous tightening monetary policy, financing difficulties have also become the last straw to crush some small and medium-sized enterprises. A small joint-stock bank Wenzhou branch of the SME loan department heads said that only 10% of SMEs in Wenzhou have relations with banks.

Even if we can borrow money, the interest rate is very high. Shi Jinchuan, director of the private economy research center of Zhejiang University, said that the loan interest rate of private enterprises in Zhejiang increased rapidly. The annual interest rate exceeding 20% has become a common phenomenon, and the financing interest rate of some enterprises is even higher.

In view of the phenomenon of some small and medium-sized enterprises that have already been closed down, Li Xunlei and Lu Lei invariably say that under the current economic background, it is normal for some small and medium-sized enterprises to go bankrupt.

"I do not think that the top executives stressed that" stronger measures should be taken to alleviate the financing difficulties of small enterprises "can alleviate the predicament of small and medium-sized enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Because banks are always "icing on the cake" instead of "providing timely help". Li Xunlei said, "of course, we should also reflect on whether monetary policy is too tight, and analyze the reasons why enterprises stop working and go out of business, so as to find a solution."