High Level Intensive Research On China'S Economy &Nbsp; Policy Fine-Tuning In The Second Half Of The Year Will Become Clearer.

In 2011, economic chess went to the central market, and the economic summary of the first half of the year and the judgement of the second half of the year were released.

A number of institutional studies have agreed that the two quarter will be the weakest quarter of China's growth this year, and inflation will decline after reaching its peak in June.

When the industry is debated fiercely, the central leadership is also busy investigating the fundamentals of the economy and issuing intensive talks on the current economic situation.

The market generally agrees that the "inflation in the second half is expected to decline steadily".

Economic half year test

In the first half of the year, with high inflation data, the economic slowdown was four, a sound that would probably cover inflation in the second half of the year.

As official PMI has dropped for 3 consecutive months, combined with all the data released in April and May, it is widely predicted that the two quarter GDP growth will be weaker than the 9.7% in the first quarter.

Tang Jianwei, senior macroeconomic analyst at Bank of Communications (601328, stock bar) Financial Research Center, said that in April, industrial added value fell more than expected, and the PMI index also continued to decline. All these indicate that domestic economic growth in the two quarter may be further decelerated.

Therefore, the domestic GDP growth forecast in the two quarter will be reduced from 10% to 9.5%.

Societe Generale Bank (601166, stock bar) research director Lu political commissar also agree with the growth rate of 9.5% in the two quarter.

He told reporters that in terms of growth, consumption and exports are expected to continue to fall despite the fact that fixed investment in cities and towns is likely to outshine the support of affordable housing, rural water conservancy construction and the projects launched in the first two years.

The reason for the slowdown is not one.

According to Japan's Nomura Securities report, the slowdown in economic growth is caused by banks' reluctance to lend money, raising loan costs (especially financing costs outside the banking system), shortage of electricity, shortage of key manufacturing components and external uncertainties.

At the beginning of July, the China Federation of logistics and purchasing also pointed out that the development momentum of large domestic enterprises slowed down, the medium-sized enterprises were not satisfactory, and small enterprises were more difficult. In recent two months, the PMI index and the main sub index of small enterprises dropped to below 50%.

In the context of tight monetary policy, the economic slowdown will intensify in the three quarter.

Song Li, deputy director of the national development and Reform Commission's Economic Research Institute, believes that the GDP growth rate in the three quarter is less than 9%.

As the economy slows down, inflation seems to be at the end of the day.

Gao Shanwen, chief economist of Anxin securities, said that although CPI may hit a new high in June, it will be a high point in the year. By December, CPI will be reduced to below 4%, and will be below 3% in the two quarter of next year.

Guotai Junan report also shows that the annual CPI is around 4.7%.

Although the peak is expected to reach 6.3% in June, it will peak in the near future, but it will slow down later.

High level focus economy

There are indications that the central leadership has fully observed the subtle changes in the macro economy.

Wang Qishan, vice premier of the State Council, said at the end of last week that facing the extremely complicated and uncertain domestic and international situation, it is very difficult to deal with the relationship between the three economic development, adjust the structure and control inflation, and achieve the goal of economic and social development throughout the whole year.

Wen Jiabao, premier of the State Council, recently said that the inflation will be reduced to less than 5% during the year.

In his article, he pointed out: "I am sure that China can control inflation and maintain rapid development."

And with inflation, this is the "six liters" of the reserve requirement rate this year.

This year, the central bank has raised the deposit reserve rate 6 times in a row, and the deposits of large financial institutions in June 20th.

Affected by tight credit policies and inflation, the problem of financing difficulties of SMEs is more prominent.

The survey data of China SME association business management center show that 40% of SMEs have financing problems, especially start-ups.

Wang Qishan, on the 1 day of the inspection of ~2 this month, stressed that it is necessary to accelerate the pformation of the development mode of the financial industry from the perspective of strategy and overall situation, promote structural adjustment and reform and innovation, and comprehensively raise the level of financial services for small businesses.

He also pointed out that the financial system should follow the central requirements and deployment, grasp the implementation of prudent monetary policy, comply with and serve the overall situation of national economic development, persist in maintaining pressure, strive to optimize the credit structure, and unswervingly strengthen financial support for small businesses and other weak links.

In June, Wu Bangguo, chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress and Jia Qinglin, chairman of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference, went to Xinjiang and Jiangxi to investigate. The adjustment of industrial structure and the pformation of the mode of economic development were the hot words mentioned in their research.

Li Xuesong, deputy director of the Institute of quantitative economics and technology economy of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told the daily economic news reporter that this year is the beginning of 12th Five-Year. Economic restructuring is the main line of the 12th Five-Year plan. It is also another important task for this year, in addition to steady growth and inflation control.

Policy fine-tuning is increasingly clear.

Without accident, the executive meeting of the State Council, which will be held in mid July, will set the tone for economic regulation in the second half of the year. Under the background of downward inflation, the policy vane is likely to deflect to the steady growth side, and tightened monetary policy will be temporarily suspended.

The Bank of China (601988, stock bar) reported that the bank's loanable funds were tight, and the normal loan demand of the real economy was also affected to a certain extent. There was limited space for further adjustment. Asymmetric interest rate increase became the preferred means of regulation.

The three quarter may raise interest rates 1~2 asymmetrically, but the possibility and necessity of raising interest rates in the four quarter will be reduced.

Close to the official told the daily economic news reporter, the possibility of raising the deposit rate has been decreasing, and a series of targeted fiscal and taxation policies will become the main "ammunition" of regulation.

"The increase of personal tax threshold and the reduction of import tariffs are all conducive to economic development."

Li Xuesong believes that structural adjustment is not contradictory to maintaining a relatively fast growth. Fiscal policy represented by individual tax reform will inject vitality into the economy from multiple directions such as expanding domestic demand and developing new industries.

Another economic booster is affordable housing.

State high level intensive research and construction of affordable housing this year, Vice Premier Li Keqiang in mid June survey pointed out that this year started the construction of 10 million sets of affordable housing, including speeding up the pformation of shanty towns, vigorously building public rental housing, is a hard task, the central government will further take measures to increase local financial support, all localities should concentrate their financial resources on building affordable housing.

In late June, the Ministry of finance first started local debt to support the construction of affordable housing; in June 27th, the NDRC also issued a document allowing local governments to invest in financing platform companies to issue corporate bonds, and requested that the funds raised should be given priority to the construction of affordable housing.

These people also reminded that the three quarter will be the strategic emerging industries sub planning and the expansion of domestic demand related to a number of "12th Five-Year" sub planning intensive release period, with clear industrial development direction, the economy will undoubtedly be boosted.