Zheng Cotton Plummeted 5% Close To The Bottom Line Empty Single Floating Surplus More Than 30%

Break down!

In July 12th, Zheng Shang's cotton futures suffered black Tuesday, of which cotton fell by 1109 to 5.16%.

From the point of view of holding positions, the more than 1109 single account of cotton held in July 12th was mainly owned by COFCO futures, with a holding ratio of 9.26%.

Those who hold empty bills are pioneered.

However, such a sharp drop has left investors in a dilemma.

"Cotton prices are approaching the bottom line of the policy.

At the moment, I dare not go short. "

A large investor in cotton futures said.

At present, the price of cotton 1109 is 21300 yuan per ton.

According to the 2011 cotton temporary purchase and storage

According to this calculation, the current cotton 1109 down the space is only 7.04%.

Fundamental continuous flight

For this fall, the majority of the futures investors said they were mainly caused by mood swings.

"The fundamental reason for the recent collapse of cotton is the poor fundamentals.

Domestic spinning enterprises have relatively large inventories, and cotton companies have already had higher costs, and their capital links are nearly broken, so they began selling cotton.

However, this fundamental situation has been going on for several months, and it is not an emergency. "

The trigger for emotional instability in the domestic futures market is the collapse of cotton futures in the outer market.

On the same day, New York commodity exchange (NYBOT) cotton futures fell 4.10%.

One senior member of the futures market offered another reason for the fall.

"The price of cotton in the United States has been below 20 thousand yuan, and the Baltic freight index is also falling.

Therefore, the cost of returning cotton from the United States to China is also reduced, and the difference between domestic and foreign cotton makes profitable short selling of Chinese cotton.

Textile enterprises further increase their dumping when they go to inventory. Textile enterprises are cautious and buy less in cotton raw material procurement, so the market is pessimistic.

In addition, the "double knot zero" repayment period is approaching, and the capital chain of cotton enterprises is also more intense.

Most cotton enterprises are stagnant and their confidence in the market is sharply reduced.

It is not optimistic about the trend of the future market.

In the second half of the year, the cotton consumption of downstream textile enterprises may decline further, and the overall trend of cotton futures is expected to be relatively weak.

However, the price of cotton purchase and storage is bottom and the space for downlink is not very large.

There is little probability of storming.

Yesterday, the largest number of holders of empty futures accounts for futures, with a holding ratio of up to 21.98%.

"Research on cotton futures has always been better.

"The futures investors said that it was not surprising that the first futures market appeared on the list of empty parties.

However, when the specific person is the key holder, analysts are divided.

"Spot companies should be short of money, mainly short of funds."

Xu Aixia said.

But the senior market participants believe that the main way to do this is to hedge spot businesses.

However, futures are zero sum pactions, and there are many parties in the empty space. Who are multi parties? Are they facing barge?

"There should not be many investors who have storehouses."

All the analysts said.

At present, in order to avoid risks, Zheng has increased the leverage ratio of cotton 1109 futures, and many Futures Company have further increased the leverage ratio.

In the early days, everyone was paying attention to the 1109 contract, raising the margin.

Now leverage can generally reach about 20%.

On the evening of July 12th, vice president of a Futures Company in the south said.

"There should be no storehouse."

He said.

"Unless there is a continuous limit, the storehouse will not be easy to occur.

"Senior market participants also said.

The rest of the people interviewed also said they had not heard of the incident.

"But through this station, I heard that few people are doing more, and the number of empty parties is increasing. I wonder if we will challenge the bottom line of cotton prices in the end."

The above-mentioned cotton futures investors said.