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The Possibility Of Cotton Breakthroughs Is More Likely

2011/7/13 11:56:00 70

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Last Wednesday, Zheng cotton made a strong rebound after its recent low point, and closed at a high point in the day. Trading volume and position increased sharply, and market divergence expanded sharply.

The author believes that at present, there is a lack of support for the fundamentals of cotton, which does not have the basis for a substantial increase.

The weather is not good enough to increase global production.

Quarterly report released by the US Department of agriculture at the end of June, 2011/2012

American cotton

The actual planting area is 13 million 725 thousand acres, which is significantly higher than the estimated 12 million 570 thousand acres in the March planting intentions report, which is 25% higher than the 10 million 974 thousand acre in 2010/2011.

However, due to adverse weather conditions affecting the production of Dezhou in the largest production area, the total output of US cotton in the new year is expected to be lower than that of 2010/2011.

In July, ICAC estimated that the global cotton output in July was 27 million 420 thousand tons, up from 24 million 770 thousand tons in 2010/2011.

The impact of drought in Dezhou has been reflected in the report's expansion and reduction, which has limited impact on the world's massive increase in production.

After 2 months of drought, there has been rainfall in some parts of Dezhou recently, and the weather condition has not deteriorated further.

At home, Xinjiang cotton is growing well, and the market is expected to advance to the end of August.

Some cotton areas in the mainland experienced adverse weather conditions after drought and drought. After the rainy season ended, the weather conditions also tended to moderate.

Therefore, the recent hype of weather has limited impact on the market.

market demand

Continued weakness

Weak market demand is the key factor leading to the weakening of cotton prices.

At present, textile enterprises are still facing difficulties in inventory backlog, and price promotions have not improved the situation significantly.

The pressure of funds and tight monetary policy have led to the prevalence of private lending. However, high interest rates and poor sales have led many small and medium-sized enterprises to enter a desperate situation.

According to market participants, many enterprises have gone through the cancellation procedures every day, and the textile enterprises that have shut down or even closed down may have reached a higher proportion.

In addition, terminal clothing sales are also coldly less than in previous years.

According to the clothing industry, this year's clothing sales are in poor condition. The brand clothing started a comprehensive discount sale in early July, and the discount approached the retail bottom line. In the past, summer promotions usually started in mid July.

Looking at the lint market, last week, Wei and Qiao textile lowered cotton lint twice.

Purchase price

The price of grade three cotton has been maintained at 23500 yuan / ton, and grade four cotton has dropped to 21400 yuan / ton.

Spot market high-grade cotton because of less stock, relatively stable prices, turnover is better, and the stock of more than three grade cotton is difficult to deal with, basically a day, price, sale is becoming increasingly fierce.